[Technology] Pay by the mile road pricing...

[Neville's Breakfast]

This thread really does read like something the manufacturers of horse-drawn carriages would have been having around 1900

What was the tax being discussed in those days ? Hay tax perhaps ?

 

[Bold Seagull]

So you are arguing for a tax on mileage but not one that aims to raise the sums currently made from fuel tax because there is still some pollution but not as much ? Perhaps that would need to be quantified and applied to other areas of the economy as well. It does seem that the environmental argument is moving the goalposts. We have a way of drastically reducing carbon emissions but this is not enough for you as the ideal is that everyone cycles or takes public transport. For most people neither is practical. What about the elderly ? What about people who live in towns, villages and the countryside? They will have to continue paying a regressive tax. Sounds suspiciously like an anti car rather than anti pollution agenda.
I have no problem with motorists paying tax as long as it is progressive ie income tax. I don’t see any reason why people should pay extra for using taxpayer funded infrastructure like roads and hospitals and I reckon if this were introduced it wouldn’t be long before it becomes operated by private companies looking for profits.

So environment aside, you see no issue with the present number of vehicles on our roads and that number increasing? You don't see any need for a larger consideration that getting around in private motor vehicle is not a sustainable one - purely on capacity of the roads as opposed to anything else?

It's not a binary argument really in that you have your emissions targets, woohoo lets flood the roads with even more cars now is it?

For the country to have an economy that works across regions, we need transport that gets goods and services from A to B as fast as possible. We also need those essential journeys for say the elderly you mention to be as easy as possible. None of that is going to be achieved by adding more vehicles to our roads.

 

[Gwylan]

What was the tax being discussed in those days ? Hay tax perhaps ?

Not tax but the idea that things will continue as they are indefinitely. The private car will be no more, probably not by 2030 but by 2040. Travelling to work, for most people, will be archaic. The day of the long distance commute is certainly over.

You can't take today's situation and project it to the future, it doesn't work like that. Otherwise we'd be riding in hansom cabs and sending messages by telegram

 

[Bold Seagull]

Not tax but the idea that things will continue as they are indefinitely. The private car will be no more, probably not by 2030 but by 2040. Travelling to work, for most people, will be archaic. The day of the long distance commute is certainly over.

You can't take today's situation and project it to the future, it doesn't work like that. Otherwise we'd be riding in hansom cabs and sending messages by telegram

It's a shame no one told 70 years of successive British Governments!

 

[Neville's Breakfast]

So environment aside, you see no issue with the present number of vehicles on our roads and that number increasing? You don't see any need for a larger consideration that getting around in private motor vehicle is not a sustainable one - purely on capacity of the roads as opposed to anything else?

It's not a binary argument really in that you have your emissions targets, woohoo lets flood the roads with even more cars now is it?

For the country to have an economy that works across regions, we need transport that gets goods and services from A to B as fast as possible. We also need those essential journeys for say the elderly you mention to be as easy as possible. None of that is going to be achieved by adding more vehicles to our roads.

The number of cars on the roads is a function of total population and economic activity. Those horses have bolted (so to speak) and those trends need to be halted if you wish to not add to car numbers. Taxing cars off the roads for all but the middle classes is not a particularly pleasant aim.

 

[Neville's Breakfast]

Not tax but the idea that things will continue as they are indefinitely. The private car will be no more, probably not by 2030 but by 2040. Travelling to work, for most people, will be archaic. The day of the long distance commute is certainly over.

You can't take today's situation and project it to the future, it doesn't work like that. Otherwise we'd be riding in hansom cabs and sending messages by telegram

Perhaps, but you are as guilty as I am in making assertions about the future. Unknown unknowns will trip us all up. You may be right about long distance commutes but an enormous number of people make car commutes of less than one hour to places where there is no possibility of public transport. Taxing them all on a flat rate for mileage regardless of income is regressive and serves very little environmental purpose if they are driving electric cars.

 

[Gwylan]

It's a shame no one told 70 years of successive British Governments!

When you're talking about cars, there wasn't the technology in place. To run successful autonomous vehicles, you're talking at least 5G connectivity and probably 6G for any mass market. And there certainly wasn't the intelligence available to drive such a beast accurately - we're talking about a technology that's only been viable in prototype for the past five or six years.

You can be absolutely assured that the government is keeping a close eye on developments. It's got its own research centre

In 2018, the government said "Since 2014 government has invested significantly into the research and development of CAVs — we have already invested £120 million in CAV projects, with a further £68 million coming from industry contributions. This funding is truly collaborative, supporting over 70 projects with more than 200 partners from organisations"

Things have moved on since then: next year, the government is expected to announce autonomous vehicles will be allowed on UK roads.

But this isn't just about self-driving cars: we're seeing Amazon experiment with drone technology, we're seeing a steep decline in business flights as people have low-cost alternatives. I've done two Zoom calls today already - have another lined up tomorrow ... and that's not all down to Covid.

The way we live in 20 years time is going to be very, very different

 

[Bold Seagull]

The number of cars on the roads is a function of total population and economic activity. Those horses have bolted (so to speak) and those trends need to be halted if you wish to not add to car numbers. Taxing cars off the roads for all but the middle classes is not a particularly pleasant aim.

Agree the trends need to be halted. Agree taxation is a blunt instrument that may adversely impact those that need it the most but can afford it the least. It is not an easy answer but we have to start thinking about our transport infrastructure as a whole, not a separate entities. I don't have a complete answer to it, but I think it starts by making alternative short journeys having much safer alternatives and working backwards from there. You only have to look over the pond to see this actually working for ideas on how to implement the strategies. The light bulb moment for the Dutch was the 70s when they projected car use forward and realised how it would end up. They only have to look at us to see what their transport would have looked like had they not acted.

 

[beorhthelm]

Ah, the lack of foresight and forward planning! Once there were city centre offices, within a reasonable shut of train and bus station, so public transport commute was for many a viable option. Trouble was the shortage and/or expense of city centre parking, so mist of them packed up and moved to out of town sites ................. plenty of car parking space but no public transport!
Some of those city centre offices are still standing empty!

reckon would be rare to find a company that moved out of city/town centre for car parking. office space cost would be the major driver, transport links/access to clients second, available skills in area, then maybe car parking.

 

[Bold Seagull]

When you're talking about cars, there wasn't the technology in place. To run successful autonomous vehicles, you're talking at least 5G connectivity and probably 6G for any mass market. And there certainly wasn't the intelligence available to drive such a beast accurately - we're talking about a technology that's only been viable in prototype for the past five or six years.

You can be absolutely assured that the government is keeping a close eye on developments. It's got its own research centre

In 2018, the government said "Since 2014 government has invested significantly into the research and development of CAVs — we have already invested £120 million in CAV projects, with a further £68 million coming from industry contributions. This funding is truly collaborative, supporting over 70 projects with more than 200 partners from organisations"

Things have moved on since then: next year, the government is expected to announce autonomous vehicles will be allowed on UK roads.

But this isn't just about self-driving cars: we're seeing Amazon experiment with drone technology, we're seeing a steep decline in business flights as people have low-cost alternatives. I've done two Zoom calls today already - have another lined up tomorrow ... and that's not all down to Covid.

The way we live in 20 years time is going to be very, very different

As said above, in the 1970s the Dutch and other progressive European countries looked at car ownership and figured it was only going one way and transformed how they approached infrastructure in their cities. They now build multi storey parking for bikes next to train stations, not cars. It didn't really take great vision, just political will.

 

[Swansman]

This thread really does read like something the manufacturers of horse-drawn carriages would have been having around 1900

As I wrote somewhere yesterday, what is wrong with horses? Excellent for thousands of years until someone said "no I want to invent the car". Well, turns out that cars plays a huge part in destroying the world. Obvious solution? Go back to horses.

Ambulances, fire trucks etc. could stay but generally people should get themselves a couple of horses.

Not tax but the idea that things will continue as they are indefinitely. The private car will be no more, probably not by 2030 but by 2040. Travelling to work, for most people, will be archaic. The day of the long distance commute is certainly over.

You can't take today's situation and project it to the future, it doesn't work like that. Otherwise we'd be riding in hansom cabs and sending messages by telegram

I think by 2040 we are pretty much transitioning into a new era. It will be a decade of great change. Anything considered unsustainable - resources, unpredictable behaviour, obsolete cities - will be phased out, people will be concentrated into a few very big cities and as you say the long distance commute will be gone, as well as the cars. Building this new society is probably going to be turbulent but great, sort of like the post-war build up of Europe. Its going to postpone the next obvious issue (robots and computers stealing all the jobs) for ten years or so.

Hopefully I have smoked myself to death before any of this happen but there is no doubt that our physical reality is going to change a whole lot as it is currently lagging behind the creation and improvemen.... changes to our digital society in the last 40 years.

 

[Gwylan]

You may be right about long distance commutes but an enormous number of people make car commutes of less than one hour to places where there is no possibility of public transport.

But why are they doing that? A hundred years ago most people lived within five miles of where they worked (I suspect that most people lived within a mile of where they worked). What changed was the need to build big factories and offices in city centres but as (G49er has pointed out) many of these are now standing empty. If someone can do his or her office job from home, then they can now.

And despite my talking about the Victorians and how they were wrong about the future of rail and cars, we could go back to those times. We may even start seeing small rural industries spring up using those old standbys of wind and water power.

You're right, I don't know exactly what the future will bring but I do know that thinking the future will generally be the same as we currently have is not the way it's going to be

 

[Neville's Breakfast]

Agree the trends need to be halted. Agree taxation is a blunt instrument that may adversely impact those that need it the most but can afford it the least. It is not an easy answer but we have to start thinking about our transport infrastructure as a whole, not a separate entities. I don't have a complete answer to it, but I think it starts by making alternative short journeys having much safer alternatives and working backwards from there. You only have to look over the pond to see this actually working for ideas on how to implement the strategies. The light bulb moment for the Dutch was the 70s when they projected car use forward and realised how it would end up. They only have to look at us to see what their transport would have looked like had they not acted.

Agree with all of that. Personally, I hardly drive at all. My wife drives to work (30 minute commute). We have our shopping delivered. We don’t take foreign holidays anymore (seen the world already !). Our carbon footprint is low but because of age and stage rather than virtue. When fans are allowed back in stadiums we will blow the previous out of the water with trips from Cheshire to Brighton for home matches ! Perhaps we will tire of it and watch Altrincham instead ! I also do not have the answers but simply feel that any rationing should not be done by flat rate taxation. How about an actual system of rationing with everyone having an equal quota of mileage regardless of income ? Just thought of that as I was typing . I guess that’s what they call brainstorming in lofty corporate circles. It doesn’t raise any tax but addresses your issue. The tax shortfall can be raised by income tax.

 

[Neville's Breakfast]

But why are they doing that? A hundred years ago most people lived within five miles of where they worked (I suspect that most people lived within a mile of where they worked). What changed was the need to build big factories and offices in city centres but as (G49er has pointed out) many of these are now standing empty. If someone can do his or her office job from home, then they can now.

And despite my talking about the Victorians and how they were wrong about the future of rail and cars, we could go back to those times. We may even start seeing small rural industries spring up using those old standbys of wind and water power.

You're right, I don't know exactly what the future will bring but I do know that thinking the future will generally be the same as we currently have is not the way it's going to be

My wife’s school is situated in an undesirable place to live. All of the staff drive from nicer areas. My daughter’s office is on an industrial estate miles from the city centre. You are going to have to move some pretty big hurdles if you are going to get rid of half hour car commutes in non metropolitan areas.

 

[Super Steve Earle]

quite, there are quite likely non drivers sitting there at home clicking and buying oceans of plastic tat from thousands of miles away being delivered by diesel chugging cans whilst eating frozen NZ Lamb, fruit and veg all flown in from the southern hemisphiere.

You aren't wrong. I walked over a mile this morning to support my local farm shop. I bought grapes and blueberries from Peru. I keep meaning to buy seasonal British produce, but I can't quite get in the rhythm of it and get tempted by foreign delights like satsumas and bananas.

 

[beorhthelm]

As I wrote somewhere yesterday, what is wrong with horses? Excellent for thousands of years until someone said "no I want to invent the car". Well, turns out that cars plays a huge part in destroying the world. Obvious solution? Go back to horses.

Ambulances, fire trucks etc. could stay but generally people should get themselves a couple of horses.

before the car were was shanks pony and bicycles for the masses. cars have democratised travel and personal freedom, horses require considerable effort to care for and only practical for very small minority to own.

 

[Swansman]

before the car were was shanks pony and bicycles for the masses. cars have democratised travel and personal freedom, horses require considerable effort to care for and only practical for very small minority to own.

I doubt personal freedom and democracy will be part of the future (and I doubt people are going to miss it). That said, the horse thing was a bit of dreamy neo luddite thinking - it wont happen of course.

 

[NooBHA]

That's your position?

Set up society so that they get their illness and death out of the way early?

Nice argument

I was being a wee bit flippant I concede and I was in part making a joke -

I am all for Clearer air and so on and moving to renewable energies etc but essentially we will, most of us in our lives, utilise the health services a lot more as we get closer to our demise. The only thing that differs amongst us is that this will be at different ages in our lives. So utilisation of those services are for the most part, determined by Population as opposed to lifestyles.

 

[Gwylan]

before the car were was shanks pony and bicycles for the masses. cars have democratised travel and personal freedom, horses require considerable effort to care for and only practical for very small minority to own.

I once had a job where I was offered a company car. I don't drive so I turned it down. I did jokingly ask for a company horse but we soon discovered that it was more expensive than the car to run

 

[Lincoln Imp]

Do we not already pay per mile travelled given the duty on fuel? Potentially it wouldn't change anything would it?

That's a fair point but the argument against lumping road tax on to fuel duty is that it would further disadvantage already unfairly disadvantaged rural motorists. Hitting them harder would do wonders for Scottish and Welsh nationalists though.