[Technology] Pay by the mile road pricing...

[Neville's Breakfast]

For a start, you're assuming that somewhere will stay "undesirable" permanently. It may well be that your undesirable town is prime real estate. I saw a survey this week that said that Crawley is one of the best places to live in the country - that's a far cry from its reputation when I was young. I have experience of this: I moved to Balham in the mid-80s when its claim to fame was the most crime-ridden station on the Underground - it was cheap though. A few years ago, I saw a flat in my old block for sale at just under a million quid, it's become a very 'in' area.

Secondly, we may see more inducements for teachers to live nearer schools so they're part of the community.

Finally, as I posted earlier, we'll start seeing road price differentials where hiring a self-drive car in urban areas may would cost a fraction of the urban charge.

That's always assuming that schools continue to exist and kids aren't taught at home by remote link, of course.

For everywhere to be prime real estate we are going to have to magic away some quite big social problems. I’m afraid nothing would induce us to live in Merseyside rather than Cheshire and we are not alone. If you are providing driverless cars for all the people who commute to work or drive to the doctors etc then you aren’t really taking cars off the road. I don’t disagree that there may be a reduction in cars but think the outcome you describe is a little extreme and one much more likely to happen in cities than the rest of the country.

 

[Gwylan]

For everywhere to be prime real estate we are going to have to magic away some quite big social problems. I’m afraid nothing would induce us to live in Merseyside rather than Cheshire and we are not alone. If you are providing driverless cars for all the people who commute to work or drive to the doctors etc then you aren’t really taking cars off the road. I don’t disagree that there may be a reduction in cars but think the outcome you describe is a little extreme and one much more likely to happen in cities than the rest of the country.

You persist in talking about the future as if it's the same as now. It's a bit like saying that we can't have doctors in the cities because there's not a plentiful supply of leeches.

There's absolutely no way we're going to have the same work patterns in 20 years time than we have now. In fact, we're seeing it break down already: people working from home, making Zoom calls, more flexible hours - the days of the 5 days a week, 9-5 working are going and will be gone within the decade.

If people only go to the office one day a week instead of five; you're already reducing traffic by 80% and if they're staggering hours then it's reduced some more. And if you introduce financial incentives for car-sharing, it's come down some more. Finally, cars are being used more efficiently - they're not looking for parking spaces and they're constantly adapting to follow more efficient routes - all of those factors reduce car use some more.

By introducing self-driving cars, you're changing where work is located. At the moment, I couldn't take a job in somewhere like Henfield or Heathfield as I don't drive but introduce autonomous vehicles and people are no longer dependent on public transport then more firms will be encouraged to move somewhere cheaper. Let's say two-thirds of companies do.

So, your "not really taking any cars off the road" is in reality, taking 98% of cars off the road.

And as for going to the doctors, we're already seeing changes to this, There are more phone/Zoom consultations. We'll have devices monitoring vital factors (blood pressure, cell count, organ function etc) - this is not science fiction, this is happening right now. We're also seeing robots carrying out surgery - again, happening now. The old-fashioned visit to the GP is already moribund, it will be gone within 20 years.

 

[beorhthelm]

...
And all of this is before self-driving cars: the biggest cost of Uber is the driver. If you could make an Uber journey for, say, a third of the cost, my guess is that usage would increase dramatically. Would you buy a car, keep it parked for most of the time when you could make a journey for perhaps a fraction more (but no tax, fuel or parking costs to consider)?

my contention is yes, we would buy cars and keep parked most the time. we already do this, millions have a depreciating asset when cabs journeys would be cheaper on total cost of ownership. there would be a reduction of private vehicles for commuting (and public transport eradicated), just dont think it would be anywhere near single figure % left owning privately.

 

[Neville's Breakfast]

You persist in talking about the future as if it's the same as now. It's a bit like saying that we can't have doctors in the cities because there's not a plentiful supply of leeches.

There's absolutely no way we're going to have the same work patterns in 20 years time than we have now. In fact, we're seeing it break down already: people working from home, making Zoom calls, more flexible hours - the days of the 5 days a week, 9-5 working are going and will be gone within the decade.

If people only go to the office one day a week instead of five; you're already reducing traffic by 80% and if they're staggering hours then it's reduced some more. And if you introduce financial incentives for car-sharing, it's come down some more. Finally, cars are being used more efficiently - they're not looking for parking spaces and they're constantly adapting to follow more efficient routes - all of those factors reduce car use some more.

By introducing self-driving cars, you're changing where work is located. At the moment, I couldn't take a job in somewhere like Henfield or Heathfield as I don't drive but introduce autonomous vehicles and people are no longer dependent on public transport then more firms will be encouraged to move somewhere cheaper. Let's say two-thirds of companies do.

So, your "not really taking any cars off the road" is in reality, taking 98% of cars off the road.

And as for going to the doctors, we're already seeing changes to this, There are more phone/Zoom consultations. We'll have devices monitoring vital factors (blood pressure, cell count, organ function etc) - this is not science fiction, this is happening right now. We're also seeing robots carrying out surgery - again, happening now. The old-fashioned visit to the GP is already moribund, it will be gone within 20 years.

If 98 % of vehicles are taken off the roads then pay by mile tax pricing isn’t going to raise much revenue is it ?

Many of the trends you describe are clearly happening and as part of the response to Coronavirus. However the world sometimes adapts in unpredictable ways. Back in the 60s who would have thought there would have been such demand for train journeys by the turn of the century. You can’t just ignore the fact that we all have different aspirations and desires and not everyone wants to live in a city without a car. Undoubtedly you will be at least partially right but it is not looking at the future as if it is the same as now to think that life outside of cities may develop in different ways to that which you are so confidently predicting.

 

[Gwylan]

If 98 % of vehicles are taken off the roads then pay by mile tax pricing isn’t going to raise much revenue is it ?

98% of vehicles are taken off urban roads at peak times - there'll be increases in rural traffic and off-peak journeys. But, yes, there'll be a net reduction. But as there's no pay by mile at the moment, any amount is an increase in revenue.

Undoubtedly you will be at least partially right but it is not looking at the future as if it is the same as now to think that life outside of cities may develop in different ways to that which you are so confidently predicting.

The only things I'm confidently predicting is that work patterns will change drastically (already happening); doctor visits will be different (already happening) and car ownership will fall away drastically (starting to happen). Everything else is speculation - we may turn to wind and water powered small businesses, we may not. We may abolish schools, we may not. That part is all guesswork.

What I do confidently predict is that the future will be as different to us now as the Victorian era is to us now

 

[Stat Brother]

This would suggest if the country ever got it's shite together over comprehensive public transport, for all, car ownership would fall off a cliff.

[tweet]1328652781130035200[/tweet]

 

[blockhseagull]

This would suggest if the country ever got it's shite together over comprehensive public transport, for all, car ownership would fall off a cliff.

[tweet]1328652781130035200[/tweet]

All very good examples and obviously all of those places with huge reductions have a decent public transport system hence why many don’t have a car.

I think my biggest problem with both sides of the argument is this massive ‘one size fits all’ situation that seems to be pushed.

In big cities where metro/tube/tram infrastructure is possible then of course it’s something that needs to be investigated and promoted to encourage people to use it.

However it isn’t going to work everywhere so surely the only practical way forward is a hybrid between city life and people that commute don’t live in areas where public transport is practical.

People need to stop demonising car users and accept that certain people will always need or in some cases want to use a car. People preferring to use a car isn’t just about laziness it’s also about practicality and in some cases safety. Some people can’t make the lifestyle changes in order to use public transport and they shouldn’t be penalised for it.

 

[FatSuperman]

We should have to pay a bazillion pounds for miles 1 to 5.
A million pounds 5 to 15.
Then 1 pence per mile above 15.

Curses! Looks like I'm taking the long route on the school run each day

 

[Stat Brother]

All very good examples and obviously all of those places with huge reductions have a decent public transport system hence why many don’t have a car.

I think my biggest problem with both sides of the argument is this massive ‘one size fits all’ situation that seems to be pushed.

In big cities where metro/tube/tram infrastructure is possible then of course it’s something that needs to be investigated and promoted to encourage people to use it.

However it isn’t going to work everywhere so surely the only practical way forward is a hybrid between city life and people that commute don’t live in areas where public transport is practical.

People need to stop demonising car users and accept that certain people will always need or in some cases want to use a car. People preferring to use a car isn’t just about laziness it’s also about practicality and in some cases safety. Some people can’t make the lifestyle changes in order to use public transport and they shouldn’t be penalised for it.

Once again:-

Commuting by car between decent sized conurbations needs to be considerably quicker, better, easier and smoother.
At which point the cars job needs to end, in favour of a wide array of affordable mass transport options.



Currently Low Traffic Neighbourhoods are the latest push button.
Get rid, stopping people, must drive car, I'm stuck in my home.

Got to wonder just how many local Councillors were contacted to ask for more traffic in their neighbourhoods.

 

[Neville's Breakfast]

Once again:-

Commuting by car between decent sized conurbations needs to be considerably quicker, better, easier and smoother.
At which point the cars job needs to end, in favour of a wide array of affordable mass transport options.



Currently Low Traffic Neighbourhoods are the latest push button.
Get rid, stopping people, must drive car, I'm stuck in my home.

Got to wonder just how many local Councillors were contacted to ask for more traffic in their neighbourhoods.

And when it ends what happens to people that commute between non decent sized conurbations where there are no public transport links ? Not just commuting; visiting family, pretty much anything that happens in the countryside, all the events that happen in our small town that has no railway station. As someone else has said there is no one size fits all solution so these rather extreme predictions are unlikely to happen.

 

[Stat Brother]

And when it ends what happens to people that commute between non decent sized conurbations where there are no public transport links ? Not just commuting; visiting family, pretty much anything that happens in the countryside, all the events that happen in our small town that has no railway station. As someone else has said there is no one size fits all solution so these rather extreme predictions are unlikely to happen.

That's what cars are for.

Only an idiot would suggest we put the genie back in the bottle.


The point being, for a hundred and one different reasons 'we' can't carry on as 'we' are.
Sadly though the merest hint of change and there's uproar.

We are slaves to something that actively kills 5 people a day.
While tens of thousands more are killed from secondary aliments.

Something needs to change.

 

[FatSuperman]

98% of vehicles are taken off urban roads at peak times - there'll be increases in rural traffic and off-peak journeys. But, yes, there'll be a net reduction. But as there's no pay by mile at the moment, any amount is an increase in revenue.

Agree - and surely, less use on the roads means less wear / damage, and therefore less cost needed. Given the infrastructure is largely already complete, we are mainly just maintaining it. Maintenance cost will drastically reduce. Whatever the new tax is, will still be needed to pay for the other related services.

The only things I'm confidently predicting is that work patterns will change drastically (already happening); doctor visits will be different (already happening) and car ownership will fall away drastically (starting to happen). Everything else is speculation - we may turn to wind and water powered small businesses, we may not. We may abolish schools, we may not. That part is all guesswork.

What I do confidently predict is that the future will be as different to us now as the Victorian era is to us now

Morrisons head office has gone four days a week, flexible working around core hours of 10:00 - 16:00, and 13 Saturdays a year (to support the retail teams). I'm with you Gwylan. In 1882, the first electricity utility plant was switched on - electricity previously only being used at small-scale, locally produced for use in factories. By the mid-1930s, nearly all factories were using utility power services. This was also accelerating into private homes at an incredible pace - as costs dropped. It took about 50 years for electricity to go from being totally new, to being a commodity, that we consume through a cable. By comparison, it took about 2,000 years from the first introduction of nuts and bolts, for them to become commodities, that you can just go and buy.

Technology is advancing the pace of this change, and it's likely that someone born this century, will go through at least 2 seismic technology shifts during their lifetime. For us old timers, that has already happened with the introduction of computers, which used to fill entire rooms in every office, but are now moving very rapidly to be entirely virtual. Very few companies will house their own servers in the future, they won't buy them up front, or even pay for a specific fixed capacity. They will flex their usage based on need, and will be charged based on that use - exactly as we do with electricity.

Children born now, will be doing jobs in 20 years that we cannot even fathom today.

I don't think small scale power generation will necessarily take off. After all, that is how it all started (albeit not green). It's much cheaper to run these things at scale. If you run your own power generation, you need your own experts on hand - just like you do if you run your own technology today.

Anyway, enough rambling. Exciting and worrying in equal measure I think

 

[Gwylan]

my contention is yes, we would buy cars and keep parked most the time. we already do this, millions have a depreciating asset when cabs journeys would be cheaper on total cost of ownership.

But it wouldn't just be cheaper - it would be a lot, lot cheaper.

there would be a reduction of private vehicles for commuting (and public transport eradicated), just dont think it would be anywhere near single figure % left owning privately.

I'm talking several years hence; there were about 12,000 hansoms and growlers in London in 1900 - how many do you think were left in 1930? My bet would be a very, very low percentage. Modes of transport has changed over the ages, I'm not sure why you think things will be different in future.

 

[Neville's Breakfast]

That's what cars are for.

Only an idiot would suggest we put the genie back in the bottle.


The point being, for a hundred and one different reasons 'we' can't carry on as 'we' are.
Sadly though the merest hint of change and there's uproar.

We are slaves to something that actively kills 5 people a day.
While tens of thousands more are killed from secondary aliments.

Something needs to change.

So you are talking about a reduction in car use coming from better public transport within and between cities. Yeah makes sense but that will come from infrastructure spending not from legislating the car away.

 

[Stat Brother]

So you are talking about a reduction in car use coming from better public transport within and between cities. Yeah makes sense but that will come from infrastructure spending not from legislating the car away.

Which is why I have never once said we should legislate the car away - that's impossible.

TBH I'm not too bothered about between decent populist areas, although Arundel, Lewes and Chichester would suggest otherwise, the A27 is one of a 100 ridiculous roads.

But towns, cities even decent sized villages need to be so much better for all people not just car users.



E-bike prices could be reduced by a third to get more people cycling

https://www.cyclingweekly.com/news/..._content=5d2c9cdf-d79e-487c-83a2-d9451f1639e5

MPs want to introduce discounts to get more people riding to work


Just a shame the selfish slaves won't give them anywhere to do so, safely.

 

[Gwylan]

Very few companies will house their own servers in the future, they won't buy them up front, or even pay for a specific fixed capacity. They will flex their usage based on need, and will be charged based on that use - exactly as we do with electricity.

This is already happening - I'm writing an article on this very subject at the moment.

The pace of change is astonishing. Let's look at a small personal example. In the mid-80s, I lived in London. I didn't have a house with a phone and there were no mobiles so, if you wanted to meet someone for a birthday party in a pub on the other side of London, it had to be arranged by letter. That lunchtime I'd have queued up in a bank at lunchtime to cash a cheque to pay for a night out (cards did exist but mine had a £10 limit on it).

On the day of the party, I'd set out across London carrying: a wallet full of cash, a London A-Z, a Tube pass, a camera and a Walkman. And, of course, it couldn't be late evening as the pubs would shut at 11.00.

These days, kids can leave home without making any arrangements but call en route. All they'd need to carry is a mobile phone - that would supply camera, map, ticket, music and wallet. Oh, and they can leave the house later too.

That change is to one small aspect of our lives in little over 30 years - and the pace of change is accelerating all the time - just think of the possibilities!

 

[marcos3263]

This is already happening - I'm writing an article on this very subject at the moment.

The pace of change is astonishing. Let's look at a small personal example. In the mid-80s, I lived in London. I didn't have a house with a phone and there were no mobiles so, if you wanted to meet someone for a birthday party in a pub on the other side of London, it had to be arranged by letter. That lunchtime I'd have queued up in a bank at lunchtime to cash a cheque to pay for a night out (cards did exist but mine had a £10 limit on it).

On the day of the party, I'd set out across London carrying: a wallet full of cash, a London A-Z, a Tube pass, a camera and a Walkman. And, of course, it couldn't be late evening as the pubs would shut at 11.00.

These days, kids can leave home without making any arrangements but call en route. All they'd need to carry is a mobile phone - that would supply camera, map, ticket, music and wallet. Oh, and they can leave the house later too.

That change is to one small aspect of our lives in little over 30 years - and the pace of change is accelerating all the time - just think of the possibilities!

going off topic, but when I was clubbing some 30 plus years ago, we didnt have mobiles and I remember the organisation in advance to arrange everyone. I would call 4 people from home on the hall phone (with a chord) and trust they then called the next 4 with the correct info etc. you had to stick to a ridged plan as there was no wiggle room, without mobiles, you got the wrong pub or time - you were on your own!

 

[Doonhamer7]

The car won’t disappear- just the mentality of ownership vs hire as needed. As cars go driverless - Uber or equivalent becomes cheaper (and actually makes a profit)

One of my previous neighbours didn’t have a car as he worked in Horsham so he cycled and once per week he got a cab back with Sainsbury’s shopping (pre home delivery), I asked him why no car and he had done his sums. Didn’t need it during week, most of his social life was with mates in Horsham or London (train journey) and if he did need a car he rented it. Sainsbury’s cab hire was C£6 a week, less than insurance on a car - so maybe he was the smart one.

It’s the same at work, we longer own our laptops - we rent them, I expected servers will go next as we rent cloud space.

Speed of change is phenomenal.

 

[Gwylan]

going off topic, but when I was clubbing some 30 plus years ago, we didnt have mobiles and I remember the organisation in advance to arrange everyone. I would call 4 people from home on the hall phone (with a chord) and trust they then called the next 4 with the correct info etc. you had to stick to a ridged plan as there was no wiggle room, without mobiles, you got the wrong pub or time - you were on your own!

It's not really off-topic. The point is that new technologies are being introduced at a dizzying rate (some we won't have even thought about) and it will change the way we work, we play, we shop ... even have sex (who would have predicted Tinder 30 years ago?)

 

[£1.99]

Would happily ditch my car except I need it to visit Client Sites with all my work equipment at the present moment.

As soon as I quit my Consultancy work it will get binned and we will just use Mrs Jakarta's car (although as a 2 seater Sports Car visits to local waste tip to do any recycling will be an issue!).

Will be happy to go back to my CBR600 which does far too few miles at present. As a 1997 model it will soon become Road Tax exempt which is a fascinating concept but clearly proves how old I am getting...

I'll likely be gone by 2030 so I'm afraid what happens after that is of no real interest!

Does this only apply on vehicles up to 1972?