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Number of Deaths
- Thread starter Tim Over Whelmed
- Start date
beorhthelm
A. Virgo, Football Genius
- Jul 21, 2003
- 36,014
that is the harsh reality underneath the headlines. though it would be different if we took no action, as the number of serious cases would increase beyond capacity and impact on other conditions. its a very careful balance because we risk having more mortality and other health issues as a result of the protection.
It does have more detail, but doesn't really explain why they are predicting such vast differences, when most models show that we are basically on a similar logarithmic curve and death numbers as Spain, France and Italy, with not widely varying population counts.
Change at Barnham
Well-known member
The official number of deaths reported by the government each day are only those that have died in hospital.
They don't include the Covid-19 deaths at home or in care homes.
darkwolf666
Well-known member
Yep, read that, but do any other analysts or modellers come anywhere near these figures, or is everyone else burying their heads in the sands... Or is this wrong?
Nixonator
Well-known member
Highly unlikely. Looks like their metrics are basically drawing a line through the peaks and rounding it off with an average lag based on timing of measures taken.
The forecast has already been wildly inaccurate for the past 2 days, projecting 1200 deaths for both yesterday and today, when in fact the figures were 439 and 786 respectively.
https://covid19.healthdata.org/united-kingdom
It seems to be weighting certain actions undertaken (which will be vastly different between nations) to estimate peaks. One of which suggests we have zero limitations on travel.
They also average it out over 3 rounds (days) of projections against reported data. So it will look very different tomorrow.
Edit. It's also showing us as having vastly fewer ICU beds than we are reported to have. It's becoming clear why very few people are paying any attention to this.
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Probably because loads die without going to hospital for extended periods of time normally - I dunno, just commenting on the numbers.
Weststander
Well-known member
According to its projections, in essence, Spain and Italy have already suffered almost all of their (by August 2020) COVID deaths at 14,000 out of 19,000, and 17,000 out of 20,000 respectively. Their daily mortality figures are still running at 600 to 850, with the spread from virus hotspots such as Madrid still to come. Similarly, France have had 10,000 out of their projected 15,000 already, despite today’s increase of 1,417.
Not only that, but they include a 'range' figure (lowest and highest projections). Today, they predict a cumulative total of 7,434, with the probability range being between 6,283-9,071. The official figures are 6,159. So, we're already below their lowest prediction.
Weststander
Well-known member
They might argue that they’re including the reported 20% who are dying away from hospitals? These are included in the later and more comprehensive ONS stats, based on death certificates. But shirley that will be the same for all countries who are honest with the stats. France for example, ahead on their curve compared to us, didn’t start releasing care home COVID death numbers until 1 April.
That's not what he said or meant. What he was saying is that in a normal year, lots of people die without taking up hospital beds for an extended period of time - such as at home, or after short hospital stays. And from my experience and the people I know who have died, that's pretty much correct. What is happening / will happen with covid-19 is that more people are hospitalised for treatment, and it seems to take them quite some time either before they recover or die - so they are in hospital for longer than people in a normal year. Therefore there is more bed usage - even if the death rate isn't greatly higher than normal.
Green Cross Code Man
Wunt be druv
Remember covid is not always lethal. Some of the older people infected it will have asymptomatic or mild symptoms. Others are simply tipped over the edge by it unfortunately, just as they would have in the coming weeks or months by a nasty cold or flu, or a fall etc. So some older people will die due to other causes but happen to have covid as well.
This is a simplistic attempt an explanation - I'm neither a scientist nor a statistician, so just my amateur understanding:
It is likely that some of those who would have died at home in normal years are, before their 'normal' time, being affected by covid-19 and being hospitalised, and then dying. That is, someone with something that could cause them to die this year anyway, gets infected with covid-19, which exacerbates their existing condition - leading them to be hospitalised and dying - possibly earlier than they would have done.
Yes, the mortality numbers will almost certainly be higher - I don't think anyone is saying they won't be. But, they won't be higher by the number of people dying with (or even because of) covid-19. Say, for instance 20,000 die with covid-19 in the UK - if 15,000 of those were likely to die this year anyway - then the increase is 5,000, not 20,000.
Even more complex would be the effect of reduced deaths through the lockdown (fewer road accidents for instance), reduction in pollution, and so on. So, you could have 20,000 covid-19 related deaths, with 15,000 being likely to die this year anyway, and 2,000 fewer deaths because of the above - meaning that the actual increase would then only be 3,000.
But this is all hypothesis - we won't know anything until it's over. And even then we won't really know - because how will we be able to judge the potential impact that survival may have on those who are infected and recover? The damage to some people's lungs may be such that their life is shortened by months/years. We'll never know.
Green Cross Code Man
Wunt be druv
He gave a very good answer. I am 99% sure you are trolling now as the other possibility is that you are simply too dense to understand. People have largely been very patient with you. There was no 'wlld speculation' there.Sounds like wild speculation to me
Even though the number is terrifying, Covid deaths still only account for about 10% of total deaths in hospital and 5% of total deaths overall......here are the totals for w/e 27 March from the ONS (latest complete week they have - this will obviously be increasing now but still not a majority of deaths).
You’ll have already seen many press reports referring to people who have died ‘with’ Covid having ‘underlying conditions’. In the sample week’s data below, a large % of the 501 will have had other conditions. No-one is saying they would have all died anyway. Anyone who dies with a positive Covid test is a ‘Covid stat’ - even if they have, for example, terminal cancer and are in palliative care.
Soylent Blue
Banned
- Mar 13, 2019
- 195
Soylent Blue
Banned
- Mar 13, 2019
- 195
The problem here is the inability of people to understand expodential growth.
Less than 4 minutes for a real education.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=A7Pa-16aJLQ
Less than 4 minutes for a real education.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=A7Pa-16aJLQ
Point. Missed. Completely.
It’s not as large a jump as it looks.......a large number of the Covid deaths are likely to have died anyway. They are not all ‘extra’ deaths.
Raphael Meade
Well-known member
I don't think that's how it works...
Also to consider, the 'usual' death rate, i.e. people that 'are likely to have died anyway' is massively down due to people staying at home. Less car crashes, less people falling off ladders, etc. So that would make the increase of deaths right now even more significant.
Lastly - the majority of people we've seen die from Covid have turned and detonated very quickly - you think there's a huge number of cases of people that also have cancer and it's the cancer that has suddenly killed them rather than the very potent virus that is following the same timeline in them that we see with other people. I think that's a huge stretch and the numbers are likely incredibly minimal and barely relevant, for 'dying WITH covid'. No offense to you personally but I think it's complete bullshit being pushed to minimize the effect of the virus.
It was mostly your bullshit.