Spot on! ONS data, now we have some, is the best indication of where we have been, and my stats may give other info.
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Number of Deaths
- Thread starter Tim Over Whelmed
- Start date
Spot on! ONS data, now we have some, is the best indication of where we have been, and my stats may give other info.
AmexRuislip
Retired Spy 🕵️♂️
LamieRobertson
Not awoke
No. It depends on the total number of cases and the total number of deaths. Get the ration today and compare it with yesterday. Assume that deaths occur some time (maybe 2 weeks) after infection, so if the increase in new cases will be followed some days later by an proportionate increase in the number of deaths. Thus the difference between the ratios over time will fall as deaths catched up with cases. When a peak is reaced the ratio will go negative (or positive - it is purely a convention and I can't recall which I selected - it is indicated in the spreadsheet). When the numbers of new cases steadily falls that chage in the sign will remain. What we are seeing is a much weaker indication of a fall in new cases in some countries. In the US, Sweden, UK and Brazil in particular the failure for the epidemic to truly go away is evident.
But as I said from the start, this is all 'if this, then that'. It sort of hangs together. The key info on what has happened is the excess deaths from ONS, not my silly spreadsheet. It is possible my calculation better predicts the start of new trends, but going forward a surge in new cases will be sufficient for panic.
Why did I bother with all this shit? At the start people refused to 'believe' numbers of new cases or deaths, in the UK because we were not 'testing', in Russia because they don't seem to be attributing deaths to Covid meaning they appear to be resistant to the virus, in China because people thought they were simply lying, in Iran because the numbers look so weird, and in India and Pakistan because vast swathes of poor people are simply not part of any statistics. I wouldn't have bothered faffing about if we 'trusted' the data in the beginning, or had a clear idea what was wrong with some data, what to ignore, etc., and I thought maybe there are trends in global data, signal among the noise, that I could identify.
The one thing I like about my statistic is the similarity in ratios between some countries, and the fact the ratios did fall worldwide over time, indicating that the rubric and assumptions may have had some validity.
You can put holes in it easily of course, but I'm an experimentalist as you know so the name of the game is make some assumptions, generate a hypothesis and invent a means of testing it. Here we have multiple variables that are misrepresented differently by different nations, so we needed a good signal if it was to emerge from the noise. The most clear signal is the one I note above about the ratio falling.
I have got a bit bored with this now as we are not looking at lots of curves of new cases and deaths at the start of the epidemic that all looked frightening and some mad, needing a deeper data mine. My main concerns now are the fate of Brazil, India and Pakistan, and the possibility (still entirely uncertain) whether we get a second surge in cases in the autumn. The data from some nations remains unfathomable. Oh and America, with its increasing cases and deaths in the red neck states, can **** off.
Now that I can make sense of ..and that last para sigh ..you have to feel for the citizens of places like Brazil
LamieRobertson
Not awoke
AmexRuislip
Retired Spy 🕵️♂️
LamieRobertson
Not awoke
Hopkins have added Brazil back into their data summary, and introduced India and Pakistan. As you can see, and as I feared, the numbers are only just taking off there. The poor health system for the vast majority, the swathes of ignorance and poverty, and the shitty governments (especially Pakistan and Brazil) mean that this could soon become horrendous.
The other big disgrace of a nation is America. Their numbers are still way up high. When you look at state by state data, it has all been and gone in the liberal north, but is still on the increase in the redneck south, where social distancing is regarded as an affront and a violation of their rights.
Meanwhile, we are also grossly underperforming for a first world nation.
I am beginning to consider that Covid patterns are a good measure of the shitness of a government, times inequality, divided by the extent to which the government lies.
The other big disgrace of a nation is America. Their numbers are still way up high. When you look at state by state data, it has all been and gone in the liberal north, but is still on the increase in the redneck south, where social distancing is regarded as an affront and a violation of their rights.
Meanwhile, we are also grossly underperforming for a first world nation.
I am beginning to consider that Covid patterns are a good measure of the shitness of a government, times inequality, divided by the extent to which the government lies.
darkwolf666
Well-known member
I know the Carry On Coronavirus thread was stopped in its tracks, but it does seem now it is a case of Carry On As Normal - Covid-19 is now largely off the radar for most it seems.
Maybe this sub forum can now be archived...
Maybe this sub forum can now be archived...
Meanwhile, Trump is planning to have his first election rally today...........
Look at the figure above and now this. US second peak looks like its well underway (this is cases, not deaths....deaths follow later)
Wondering the same thing? Is this the conservative ploy to avoid criticism by effectively putting their fingers in their ears and going ding a ling a ling?
Green Cross Code Man
Wunt be druv
UK death toll 89. Figures released late due to change in 'gathering' whatever that means.
vegster
Sanity Clause
- May 5, 2008
- 28,272
The last two weeks have seen figures announced that seem to show that statistically, the UK's current death rate is slightly lower than expected for the time of year. They do admit that the numbers are probably lower due to the numbers of fatalities " brought forward " of the elderly and ill people that were finished off by Covid-19 in April/may/June.
However, given the increase in public awareness of health, hygiene, sanitiser use, mask wearing, social distancing AND shielding these must be false figures ? All these measures must surely have reduced massively the amount of communicable diseases, colds and 'flu that constantly lead to complications such as pneumonia and death ? I would have thought overall fatalities should me much much reduced rather than " Slightly Lower " ?
However, given the increase in public awareness of health, hygiene, sanitiser use, mask wearing, social distancing AND shielding these must be false figures ? All these measures must surely have reduced massively the amount of communicable diseases, colds and 'flu that constantly lead to complications such as pneumonia and death ? I would have thought overall fatalities should me much much reduced rather than " Slightly Lower " ?
As feared, the loosening of restrictions in the appears to be asosciated with an upturn in new cases. As always my data is pinched from the Johns Hopkins site.
For comparison, this is what no restrictions (in some US states) provides:
For comparison, this is what no restrictions (in some US states) provides:
Indurain's Lungs
Legend of Garry Nelson
This is actually misleading as cases have continued to fall/stabilise. The uptick you see on the graph is the point which pillar 2 test were added to the daily totals. Official data that now includes that data for all dates - https://coronavirus-staging.data.gov.uk/cases
If I follow you correctly you are saying that Johns Hopkins recent data are wrong because they have changed the way they calculate UK cases, whereas UK Gov have not?
Dick Swiveller
Well-known member
- Sep 9, 2011
- 9,524
I think the problem is that you didn't go with the Katie Hopkins data.
