New Poll. Europe: In or Out

[cunning fergus]

We shall see. There does come a point when if practically every politician is SNP and they want to remain in the EU but are forced to exit because they are part of the UK then - regardless of oil revenue - they will be completely disenfranchised. That is an unsustainable position, and in those circumstances I think they will get a second referendum.

The UK is a democratic country, this is why Scotland got their own Parliament because Labour recognised some devolution was necessary in order to reflect the democratic will of the people.

We shall, however I think this particular Scottish question and its threat to the UK does not hold water.

I have no doubt that an SNP dominated parliament will demand a 2nd referendum, and even get one, this is after all their raison d'être. However the SNP and the outers failed to win last time despite having an economic argument that appeared credible.

That argument has been shredded because a) they overstated their oil revenue and b) they didn't make an allowance for the kind of shock the market is experiencing.

Their demand to be independent again, because they want to be in the EU is an even weaker argument, and I will explain why......

If rump UK leaves and Scotland wants in they would have to join the euro...........that was not a winning argument before it will be even less so now.

Scotland does not overwhelmingly vote SNP because they want independence, they just can't bring themselves to vote labour.

 

[cunning fergus]

I intend to do just that. The book I read has really whetted my appetite. I remember many years ago getting a ladybird book out of the library describing his great retreat from Russia with quite horrific pics for an 8yr old !! I did A level history but sadly never touched on Napoleon. Plenty of hours on the dull Italian Reunification but nothing on one of Europe's most fascinating leaders of modern times

You definitely should, there is a book 1812 that is really good plus on YouTube there is a English subtitled 3 part doc that the French and Russians did (I think) which is interesting.

Taking an even wider view though is the post Napoleonic period's effect on the French psyche. It's quite bizarre, after his death Bonapartists in the French establishment actively subverted French governments and led a coup in the 1850s (?) to put Napoloen lll in charge (Napoleon's nephew).

This 3rd Republic (?) was interesting in the Napoleon lll was an Anglophile (having lived and such shmoozed in the UK pre coup) and saw GB industrial strength as something France needed to replicate. It was this Napoleon that the British went to war with in the Crimea a mere 50 years or so after Waterloo.

In the end though he lost the faith of the French people (which French leader doesn't) and he was fooled by Bismarck into the Franco Prussian war in 1870.

This small episode of European is fascinating because it created the German state and communism. A unified Germany and its head of state "The Ceasar" was crowned in the Palace of Versailles, a humiliation that the French did not deal with till the next of the First World War. It was no coincidence why the treaty that ended the war was held in the same place.

This war also caused a political civil war in France, particularly Paris, and following the Russian Revolution Lenin said that the Russians had finished the work started by the French on the streets of Paris in 1870.

Napoleon lll and his wife Eugenie went into exile to the UK, and both died in Hampshire, there is French monastery there today still speaking French and their son died fighting for the British Army against the Zulus.

The political wounds caused by this episode in France were profound and fear of communism was a key part of why many French collaborated with the Germans in 1939 and its legacy still exists politically today in France's political environment.

 

[alfredmizen]

Can't see why over 70's should be allowed to vote. It a decision for the long term not the next 10 years

What a childish post.

 

[Pavilionaire]

where do you get your information from concerning the scots, don't tell me the bbc and other mainstream outlets ,exactly ive heard completely different, it is a more even contest than you think.

Where do YOU get your information - the fairies from the bottom of the garden? Scotland ARE more inclined to vote in than England because they tend to vote for left of centre parties who have a more internationalist outlook. Labour's socialist principles extend to their fellow workers outside these shores whereas the tradional right wing views focus more on Britain's interest.

These are the socialist principles that helped forge the EU post-WW2. The Union as we see it now owes more to the left than the right.

I'm not saying it will be a landslide in Scotland, but maybe 5% more voting IN compared to the rest of the UK.

 

[Pavilionaire]

We shall, however I think this particular Scottish question and its threat to the UK does not hold water.

I have no doubt that an SNP dominated parliament will demand a 2nd referendum, and even get one, this is after all their raison d'être. However the SNP and the outers failed to win last time despite having an economic argument that appeared credible.

That argument has been shredded because a) they overstated their oil revenue and b) they didn't make an allowance for the kind of shock the market is experiencing.

Their demand to be independent again, because they want to be in the EU is an even weaker argument, and I will explain why......

If rump UK leaves and Scotland wants in they would have to join the euro...........that was not a winning argument before it will be even less so now.

Scotland does not overwhelmingly vote SNP because they want independence, they just can't bring themselves to vote labour.

There is some logic to your argument, but it presupposes that Scottish voters have a good grasp of the volatility of oil prices and the general economic base of Scotland. I don't think this is the case, I don't think they analyse it that deeply, I think they look at countries like Norway and Iceland and think if they can do it so can we.

I'd expect that for every voter switching away from the SNP on the oil issue there would be at least one switching to them over BRexit.

 

[JC Footy Genius]

The SNP will probably exploit a Brexit vote to call for a referendum but it does not follow that they would then vote to leave the UK.

The collapse in Oil revenues have severely undermined their economic arguments and retaining or re applying for EU membership is not a straightforward or certain process.

Nicola Sturgeon has already hinted if the Scottish polls show a consistent healthy 'vote leave the UK' majority they would press for another referendum anyway.

 

[Lincoln Imp]

ive already told you the once to look the evidence up, it's not as if it isn't out there.

..

No, you're the person making claims of vote-rigging in major European countries so you provide the evidence. You know what the definition of vote-rigging is and you seem confident that it has happened so you should find it easy.

Evidence though, not vague claims which seem to involve something else.

 

[cunning fergus]

There is some logic to your argument, but it presupposes that Scottish voters have a good grasp of the volatility of oil prices and the general economic base of Scotland. I don't think this is the case, I don't think they analyse it that deeply, I think they look at countries like Norway and Iceland and think if they can do it so can we.

I'd expect that for every voter switching away from the SNP on the oil issue there would be at least one switching to them over BRexit.

Given the fallout from the referendum in Scotland about the critical nature of North Sea oil to Scotland's independence I would argue confidently that if they voted last year they will know. Further those who work in the industry or are reliant on it will be feeling the consequences of the current market shock as some 20,000 Scottish jobs have gone or will go shortly as a consequence of the fall in oil prices.

In short, the primary economic argument that the SNP had then is now a busted flush.

That brings us to the second point about Scotland staying in the EU and having to join the euro. This was not an argument the SNP wanted to make last year because it was not a vote winner. If it was they would have argued for it.

They will have to now have to do a 180 degree turn and argue for it if the UK votes for a Brexit.

If you think there are hundreds of thousands of Scottish people who didn't vote or voted to stay in who will now vote out because they want to join the euro then you are frankly deluded. Sorry.

 

[topbanana36]

No control of our borders, laws or sovereignty. The benefits brake haha. Camer moron fighting for our country don't make me laugh!!! OUT all the way!!!

 

[Lincoln Imp]

So what?

It is a FACT that Ford now employs more than it used to in Turkey because it built a huge plant there to build (amongst other models) the Transit and UK/EU workers jobs were lost as a consequence.

This proves that being outside the EU does not mean car manufacturing jobs will be lost.

On the contrary, as long as costs are competitive with the EU it will be fine.

With respect, I don't think it is as simple as you suggest. Costs are important, which is why Nissan makes cars in India. Unfettered access to the single market is also important, which is why Nissan makes cars in England. There are other factors too, such as access to suitable labour, local subsidies and physical communications. It is not a simple calculation but it would be wrong to suggest that location within the EU is not a hugely important consideration for non-European carmakers deciding where to build their factories.

 

[Westdene Seagull]

Not massively political, but in relation to this referendum nonsense - I was going to vote leave, until I realised that two of the biggest thunder****s in the Conservative government - Gove and Duncan-Smith - are the main backers of the Out campaign. All we need is Jeremy Hunt and Gorgeous George to vote out and we have the four horsemen of the apocalypse.

You've got to be utterly dim to base your vote on who else will vote which way

 

[Seagull on the wing]

No control of our borders, laws or sovereignty. The benefits brake haha. Camer moron fighting for our country don't make me laugh!!! OUT all the way!!!

 

[Seagull on the wing]

Herr Tub said in an earlier post that the 'outers were sh**ing themselves...what an endorsement if his forecasting is anything like his prediction for the general election...what was it?...something like clear the floor so Ed Milliband can do his victory dance,..yuk yuk!.

 

[Westdene Seagull]

All well and good but we are a union. The operative word being union.

You seriously believe that Scotland being able to decide say charges for uni in Scotland with no say for England based MPs yet Scotland based MPs being allowed a say what England based uni's charge is fair and balanced ?? Really ??

 

[Soulman]

You seriously believe that Scotland being able to decide say charges for uni in Scotland with no say for England based MPs yet Scotland based MPs being allowed a say what England based uni's charge is fair and balanced ?? Really ??

Exactly. I do believe that when it came to the vote on English tuition fees the SNP, Plaid and the DUP etc voted against parody with Scottish fees. The vote was close but with about 110 (out of the 660 MP's) NON English MP's voting against, this tipped the balance.

 

[Deleted member 22389]

Not massively political, but in relation to this referendum nonsense - I was going to vote leave, until I realised that two of the biggest thunder****s in the Conservative government - Gove and Duncan-Smith - are the main backers of the Out campaign. All we need is Jeremy Hunt and Gorgeous George to vote out and we have the four horsemen of the apocalypse.

It's not a left or right issue, personality contest

 

[alfredmizen]

Priti Patel is part of the OUT group however if we are discussing her im part of the IN camp which im sure [MENTION=31]El Presidente[/MENTION] will agree with ?

 

[beorhthelm]

here's a point for both sides to chew on: the outcome of the referendum is not binding. its basically a national opinion poll. and we have seen from previous form that the EU doesnt accept referendum outcomes that go against it, so isnt likely to change tack on UK leaving. so i expect that in the event of a Leave/Out vote winning, it will trigger a new round of negotiation, possibly even real treaty change.

what will catagorically not happen is that on the 24th June everything changes, hand over the keys and leave the EU immeidately, impose tariffs, stop emigration and immigration, stop benefits, close all business and cultral ties with the continent. nothing will happen for months even years as things like contracts and new trade deals negotiated etc.

except, lets go back to the earlier point, that the EU wont accept the result. their first response will be to attempt to negotiate a better deal, probably genuine transition of powers back to nations, treaty change will be on the cards. losing the UK would be a massive loss to them, not just financially but from the purpose of the project.

if the Stay vote wins it will mean we have to settle for EU as it is now and planned for in the future - further intergration, more powers to Brussels etc, a gentle unwinding of what pitiful consessions Cameron has brought back from 6 months negotiation will be eroded away.

where im going with this is that, for the undecided, or the unconvinced Stay/Inner its a sensible approach to vote to Leave, to get us a better deal (and another referendum on that).

 

[Soulman]

here's a point for both sides to chew on: the outcome of the referendum is not binding. its basically a national opinion poll. and we have seen from previous form that the EU doesnt accept referendum outcomes that go against it, so isnt likely to change tack on UK leaving. so i expect that in the event of a Leave/Out vote winning, it will trigger a new round of negotiation, possibly even real treaty change.

what will catagorically not happen is that on the 24th June everything changes, hand over the keys and leave the EU immeidately, impose tariffs, stop emigration and immigration, stop benefits, close all business and cultral ties with the continent. nothing will happen for months even years as things like contracts and new trade deals negotiated etc.

except, lets go back to the earlier point, that the EU wont accept the result. their first response will be to attempt to negotiate a better deal, probably genuine transition of powers back to nations, treaty change will be on the cards. losing the UK would be a massive loss to them, not just financially but from the purpose of the project.

if the Stay vote wins it will mean we have to settle for EU as it is now and planned for in the future - further intergration, more powers to Brussels etc, a gentle unwinding of what pitiful consessions Cameron has brought back from 6 months negotiation will be eroded away.

where im going with this is that, for the undecided, or the unconvinced Stay/Inner its a sensible approach to vote to Leave, to get us a better deal (and another referendum on that).

A good post.

 

[vegster]

Staying in EU 'exposes UK to terror risk', says Iain Duncan Smith........

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-eu-referendum-35624409

So there we go, a good reason to leave the EU, IS and Al Qaeda will ignore us from then on apparently and will, we assume, forgive us for bombing the crap out of them.