[Albion] Midfield goal production and the striker myth

[Swansman]

You are right, but a reason our midfielders dont score enough is because we dominate possession forcing teams to sit deep and crowd the box.

If our strikers could score an early goal, the opposition would be forced to be more offensive leaving space for our midfielders to exploit.

Our strikers dont score the first goal often enough, this is the crux of all our problems, including goals from other areas.

Forcing opponents to sit deep generally results in more goals for midfielders/wingers as the strikers are always going to be brawling with 5 or 6 players. This is one of the reasons why Fernandes and Rashford are scoring more goals in United than Cavani and Martial, or why Gundogan is on 12+ goals in City with Jesus only scoring 4. Opponents sitting deep is usually to the advantage of opposing midfielders.

Do we need more goals from midfield ... yes

Does that change the fact that yet again our three ‘strikers’ all missed golden chances..... no.

So although I completely agree that we do need more goals from midfield, the fact our strikers are poor isn’t a ‘myth’ ... it’s a fact backed up by further facts.

The "myth" part of it isnt that the Brighton strikers are not good enough, because they are not. At least 14 or 15 teams in the league at least got one striker who is better than anyone up front for Brighton. I agree with the consensus on that one. The myth part, according to me, is that this is the "biggest" or "only" problem - because I truly believe that the quality gap of the attacking midfielders compared to other teams is a lot bigger than the quality gap of the strikers compared to other teams. Neither are very good though.

Brighton is a team with a top 6 defense (gk, defenders, dmc) and a bottom 6 attack (amcs, wingers, strikers). As one point for a draw is less than three points for a win, the current league table is not unexpected and to solve this problem a mix of recruitment and player improvement needs to happen. Some major decisions in the summer, particularly in the cases of Maupay and Trossard - do you give them another year to prove their worth or do you sell and replace? I would be open to both, but regardless another one or two pieces of quality needs to be added if not a similar situation is going to happen next year. Less difficult decisions on players like Welbeck (dont renew his contract) and Ali J (sell if possible). Also less difficult decisions with talented 20-22 year olds (Ali Mac, Connolly) - no good reason to sell them as they could eventually turn into quality PL players.

 

[The Optimist]

Antonio and Haller (7+3) are the ones scoring while playing in the striker role.



Chances are created by defenders, midfielders and forwards and missed by defenders, midfielders and forwards.







Good question and zefarelly showing again he is not watching the games, which is understandable as it is quite painful.

The average central midfielder in PL shoot 0.93 times per 90 min. On average 26.7% of these shots hit the target. These are the Brighton numbers:

Yves Bissouma: 1.11 shots per game, 8% hitting the target.
Pascal Gross: 1.26 shots, 15% on target

The average PL attacking midfielder/winger take 2.01 shots per 90 mins. On average 36.6% of these hit the target.

Leandro Trossard - 2.13 shots, 36.1% hitting the target
Alexis Mac Allister - 2.41 shots, 15% on target

Meaning all of the most common Brighton starters shot more than the average midfielder/attacking midfielder in the PL with all of them also (in Trossards case not by much) being far worse when it comes to hitting the target.




Yes.



Ok. So here is a special for you: Nottingham striker goals 78/79: 30 (Birtles 14, Woodcock 10, Francis 6). Midfield goals: 25 (O'Neill 10, Robertson 9, Bowyer 4, Gemilll 1, Mills 1).

Meaning the guy who - according to some - didnt give a shit about midfielders scoring still had pretty much the same margin between the goal returns from strikers/midfielders as GP does with his team.




The biggest difference between PL players is not if they were coached into doing one thing or another, but the level of their quality. If you hire someone for and pay them £50 000k a week, you'd imagine they would be pretty good to begin with, no? If you hire a cook on £50k per week, you expect him to be able to cut a ****ing cucumber without having to guide him through the entire process.

Thank you for taking the time to answer my questions. It’s interesting to see my gut feeling from watching isn’t correct.

I know you get a mixed reaction on here, but I appreciate someone who’s watching us and can provide a calm detailed analysis. Your posts are much more interesting than “Tony Bloom needs to spend £50m and £100k+ on wages on a striker” posts.

 

[clockend1983]

Lots of moaning about the strikers and lack of competent strikers.

Its quite interesting. Brighton strikers so far scored 11 goals (Maupay 7, Connolly 2, Welbeck 2).

That is one more goal than West Ham in 4th place.

The midfielders scored 7 goals so far.

That is 13 less than West Hams 20 (Soucek 8, Bowen 5, Lingard 3, Fornals 2, Lanzini 1, Rice 1).

Leicester strikers scored 14 goals (Vardy 12, Perez 1, Iheanacho 1). Better than the Brighton strikers? Yes, 3 more. Does 3 more take you to the Champions League?

No. Midfield goal production does.

I repeat: the Brighton midfielders scored 7 goals. Leicesters midfielders: 24 (Barnes 9, Maddison 8, Tielemans 5, Praet 1, Ndidi 1).

I've said this about twenty times on the board already, always getting the reply "... but its the strikers job to score, Clough said so in the 70s"). Fair enough. But fact remains - goal production from midfielders are very important if you want to win games, and the major difference between Brighton and the top teams. The handful more goals produced by their strikers got very limited impact compared to the ca 15 goals more that the midfielders of (pretty much every) other team scored.

Yes this has begun going on for many seasons

 

[Wardy's twin]

Bissouma, considering how deep he is playing, is the one midfielder I wouldnt really hold accountable for anything. Just like with central defenders, I see goals from him as bonus goals. Gross, Lallana, Trossard, Ali Mac, Alzate and Ali J however - they are not anywhere near their equivalents/pseudo-equivalents elsewhere.

Alzate has not really been given much game time in a an attacking midfielder role...

 

[b.w.2.]

If that a fact? The problem I have here is that Swansman is telling us that ou midfield is no good. So who are creating all the chances?

.... and who is it that is failing to convert them?

Swanny has clearly falsified the stats with his rather arbitrary classification of strikers versus midfielders. AND his choice of teams as comparators.

There is SOME truth in what he says of course, but the clear priority is to sign Muzza 2.


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[b.w.2.]

I agree with midfield contribution.

But given the chances we create it surely cannot be denied that a deficiency remains up front.

It’s the ones you miss not the ones you score and the one thing it isn’t is a myth.


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[neilbard]

Give all the strikers and midfield players some of these, job's a goodun...

 

[blue-shifted]

Looking at goals to xg ratios is clearly not a nice stat for any of our players but the problem is quite obviously mainly with our strikers as these stats show.

I know not everyone likes xg but these are a really useful guide so to explain, these figures show the extra goals these players should have scored based on the chances they have had. Midfielders:

Trossard: +1.82

Gross: +1.57

Mac Allister: +0.19

Bissouma: -0.43 (so he’s actually the only done better than expected with the chances he’s had)

Lallana: +0.62

And the strikers, it’s not pretty:

Maupay: +4.23 (shocking)

Connolly: +2.39

Welbeck: +2.64

From these group of players, the midfield have also contributed 10 assists and the strikers only 2!

There is no doubt where our main, huge issue is and it is not the midfield.

This very much backs up the overall impression most of us have that it is up front where we have most under performed

The midfielders finishing has been poor, but they have a dual role. In most matches they are winning the midfield battle, so they are doing one out of two.

Our strikers have neither been scoring or particularly contributing to the team in other areas

 

[Seasidesage]

There presumably is some overlap between the stats too? I've thought for awhile that if we had a more physical centre forward that not only would we get more threat on goal from that player we would also get more loose ball/shots around the edge of the area than we do currently. We put cross after cross into the box from which we don't win the 1st ball or we play integrate passing movements which get closed down as they try to get a shot off.

In a game of such fine margins if we could just free up a tiny bit more space/time in the box I think our goal output would increase markedly.

 

[forumwayseagull]

They are much better comparisons. Like I say you are correct about your point that our midfield needs to score more goals.

But that doesn't detract from the fact that . . . so do our forwards.

Tonight certainly our forwards missed some great opportunities. If we had better players up front we would have won the game

I totally get your point but I don't think you'll convince me that our midfield needs upgrading before our forwards.

The way we work we will sign a couple of new defenders before signing anyone else

 

[neilbard]

The way we work we will sign a couple of new defenders before signing anyone else

Don't forget a shite load of under 5's, its all about the future...

 

[blue-shifted]

So we've had 65+ attempts at the last 3 games.

But I think we need to look at where there weren't attempts.

Connolly's miss. It looked bad, but these things happen. It's forgiveable.

Missing two penalties. Again, they get missed, though it's frustrating, it's a forgiveable error

But

At the end of the match when Moder puts in a beauty of a cross, when we're desperate for a goal and nobody is attacking it. That is not forgiveable. To not be getting in there at that moment is shocking and points to the most scrambled of scrambled minds.

Here's my solution.

We put our faith in Connolly. Yes yes, he's had a couple of bad misses, but he keeps getting in there and keeps moving.

Up front with him we try Zeqiri. Again, probably not as good a player as Maupay, but it doesn't matter. Neal, for whatever reason is not in the right place mentally to score goals, he's not doing the things which could get him goals. He needs time out of the side. Zeqiri gives us the option to swing the balll into the box to compete for a header which we don't really have at the moment.

Trossard is clearly a skillful player, but has no ability to strike the ball cleanly or head the ball, and so cannot continue up front. We play him at Left Wing Back. Tell him to provide width and deliver into the box. That's his game.

Wellbeck. Sorry, but he'd be last one I picked. Let's trust and develop our players for the future

Tau. Difficult to say, as we've only seen little of him, but GP doesn't seem to trust him

Andone. He could have a part to play, and I rate him, but it's fanciful to think he's going to be able to come back in and be fully back to where he was

The team which will get the goals and wins up to the international break looks something like ....

--------------Sanchez
---------White Dunk Burn
Veltman Moder Bissouma Trossard
--------------MacAllister
-----------Connolly Zeqiri

Gross sometimes for MacAllister. Obv's Webby and Lamptey are going to be challenging for a place when fit

 

[Frankworthington]

Swanny has clearly falsified the stats with his rather arbitrary classification of strikers versus midfielders. AND his choice of teams as comparators.

There is SOME truth in what he says of course, but the clear priority is to sign Muzza 2.


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I think you were right about Toney

 

[portlock seagull]

So we've had 65+ attempts at the last 3 games.

But I think we need to look at where there weren't attempts.

Connolly's miss. It looked bad, but these things happen. It's forgiveable.

Missing two penalties. Again, they get missed, though it's frustrating, it's a forgiveable error

But

At the end of the match when Moder puts in a beauty of a cross, when we're desperate for a goal and nobody is attacking it. That is not forgiveable. To not be getting in there at that moment is shocking and points to the most scrambled of scrambled minds.

Here's my solution.

We put our faith in Connolly. Yes yes, he's had a couple of bad misses, but he keeps getting in there and keeps moving.

Up front with him we try Zeqiri. Again, probably not as good a player as Maupay, but it doesn't matter. Neal, for whatever reason is not in the right place mentally to score goals, he's not doing the things which could get him goals. He needs time out of the side. Zeqiri gives us the option to swing the balll into the box to compete for a header which we don't really have at the moment.

Trossard is clearly a skillful player, but has no ability to strike the ball cleanly or head the ball, and so cannot continue up front. We play him at Left Wing Back. Tell him to provide width and deliver into the box. That's his game.

Wellbeck. Sorry, but he'd be last one I picked. Let's trust and develop our players for the future

Tau. Difficult to say, as we've only seen little of him, but GP doesn't seem to trust him

Andone. He could have a part to play, and I rate him, but it's fanciful to think he's going to be able to come back in and be fully back to where he was

The team which will get the goals and wins up to the international break looks something like ....

--------------Sanchez
---------White Dunk Burn
Veltman Moder Bissouma Trossard
--------------MacAllister
-----------Connolly Zeqiri

Gross sometimes for MacAllister. Obv's Webby and Lamptey are going to be challenging for a place when fit

Burn and Connolly?! Sorry, but you’d be better off selecting only 9 players as the side to keep us up. Sorry, it’s a no from me. Welbeck (fitness depending) and Maupay have to be our front two. The Lion is a possibility I suppose but he doesn’t seem to be getting any game time despite the horrific finishing of others, so is he the answer? And if so, why isn’t he getting more games? Zequiri is for me in the same boat as Connolly. Too young / unproven to be expected to be the answer upfront. Maybe in 2-3 years time and then only after a couple of really good loaned out seasons to another lower division club perhaps.

 

[vagabond]

Looking at goals to xg ratios is clearly not a nice stat for any of our players but the problem is quite obviously mainly with our strikers as these stats show.

I know not everyone likes xg but these are a really useful guide so to explain, these figures show the extra goals these players should have scored based on the chances they have had. Midfielders:

Trossard: +1.82

Gross: +1.57

Mac Allister: +0.19

Bissouma: -0.43 (so he’s actually the only done better than expected with the chances he’s had)

Lallana: +0.62

And the strikers, it’s not pretty:

Maupay: +4.23 (shocking)

Connolly: +2.39

Welbeck: +2.64

From these group of players, the midfield have also contributed 10 assists and the strikers only 2!

There is no doubt where our main, huge issue is and it is not the midfield.

Great post [emoji106]

 

[vagabond]

So we've had 65+ attempts at the last 3 games.

But I think we need to look at where there weren't attempts.

Connolly's miss. It looked bad, but these things happen. It's forgiveable.

Missing two penalties. Again, they get missed, though it's frustrating, it's a forgiveable error

But

At the end of the match when Moder puts in a beauty of a cross, when we're desperate for a goal and nobody is attacking it. That is not forgiveable. To not be getting in there at that moment is shocking and points to the most scrambled of scrambled minds.

Here's my solution.

We put our faith in Connolly. Yes yes, he's had a couple of bad misses, but he keeps getting in there and keeps moving.

Up front with him we try Zeqiri. Again, probably not as good a player as Maupay, but it doesn't matter. Neal, for whatever reason is not in the right place mentally to score goals, he's not doing the things which could get him goals. He needs time out of the side. Zeqiri gives us the option to swing the balll into the box to compete for a header which we don't really have at the moment.

Trossard is clearly a skillful player, but has no ability to strike the ball cleanly or head the ball, and so cannot continue up front. We play him at Left Wing Back. Tell him to provide width and deliver into the box. That's his game.

Wellbeck. Sorry, but he'd be last one I picked. Let's trust and develop our players for the future

Tau. Difficult to say, as we've only seen little of him, but GP doesn't seem to trust him

Andone. He could have a part to play, and I rate him, but it's fanciful to think he's going to be able to come back in and be fully back to where he was

The team which will get the goals and wins up to the international break looks something like ....

--------------Sanchez
---------White Dunk Burn
Veltman Moder Bissouma Trossard
--------------MacAllister
-----------Connolly Zeqiri

Gross sometimes for MacAllister. Obv's Webby and Lamptey are going to be challenging for a place when fit

Wow, couldn’t drop Gross. Other than that (and assuming you’d put Webdini back in the team when fit) I probably would have a similar lineup.

Maupay has to be rested IMO (dropped sounds harsh). Connolly does miss, but he causes more problems for the opposition. Zequiri or Tau would be fine.

 

[b.w.2.]

I think you were right about Toney

11 million in the summer and we backed down; chasing another young striker we never had much of a chance of signing at over £20m instead.

We would be lucky to get Toney for double his summer price now; good recruitment? Obviously no


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[b.w.2.]

Burn and Connolly?! Sorry, but you’d be better off selecting only 9 players as the side to keep us up. Sorry, it’s a no from me. Welbeck (fitness depending) and Maupay have to be our front two. The Lion is a possibility I suppose but he doesn’t seem to be getting any game time despite the horrific finishing of others, so is he the answer? And if so, why isn’t he getting more games? Zequiri is for me in the same boat as Connolly. Too young / unproven to be expected to be the answer upfront. Maybe in 2-3 years time and then only after a couple of really good loaned out seasons to another lower division club perhaps.

This


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[Johnny RoastBeef]

Forcing opponents to sit deep generally results in more goals for midfielders/wingers as the strikers are always going to be brawling with 5 or 6 players. This is one of the reasons why Fernandes and Rashford are scoring more goals in United than Cavani and Martial, or why Gundogan is on 12+ goals in City with Jesus only scoring 4. Opponents sitting deep is usually to the advantage of opposing midfielders.

You do realise that you are comparing 3 of the best players in world football to backup your reasoning about Brighton's midfield, Ignoring the obvious gulf in class.

The fact remains that if you look at the matches when our midfielders actually scored, they were nearly all against teams who didn't operate a low block. Only Mac Allister's goal against Palace was against an overly defensive formation.

Alexis Mac Allister: Palace
Pascal Gross: Saints & Liverpool
Solly March: Everton & Man Utd
Leandro Trossard: Spurs & Chelsea

So, focusing on Brighton, an early goal against teams who set up in a low block would encourage them to change tactics and open up, helping our midfielders to score more.

 

[b.w.2.]

Looking at goals to xg ratios is clearly not a nice stat for any of our players but the problem is quite obviously mainly with our strikers as these stats show.

I know not everyone likes xg but these are a really useful guide so to explain, these figures show the extra goals these players should have scored based on the chances they have had. Midfielders:

Trossard: +1.82

Gross: +1.57

Mac Allister: +0.19

Bissouma: -0.43 (so he’s actually the only done better than expected with the chances he’s had)

Lallana: +0.62

And the strikers, it’s not pretty:

Maupay: +4.23 (shocking)

Connolly: +2.39

Welbeck: +2.64

From these group of players, the midfield have also contributed 10 assists and the strikers only 2!

There is no doubt where our main, huge issue is and it is not the midfield.

Suck it Swanny. Brilliant post


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