[Albion] Man City AWAY - 15.03.25 - Would you take a draw now?

[Harry Wilson's tackle]

Don’t forget that from a purely probability standpoint, if you toss a coin and it lands on heads six times in a row, that does not affect in any way the chance of throwing a seventh.

Indeed. The odds of getting 7 in a row, before you start tossing, is 0.5 to the power of 7.
But the odds of getting a head on a seventh throw is 0.5.

Not a lot of people know that.
Which is why you rarely encounter a poor bookie.
Although, a well-known NSC poster told me about one, many years ago. His dad.

 

[sydney]

I would take a 2-2 draw right now yes at 17-1 with a
$50.00 stake

 

[Wrong-Direction]

Nah 1-3

 

[el punal]

For the first time ever we can compete, and beat, any team in the Premier League. So why not beat City? We are a side on the up at the moment and City look disjointed, perhaps the perfect time to play them. So that’s it then, a 3-0 defeat incoming.

 

[Mustafa II]

I've voted no.

I think we can beat them. We're in great form. Three points would be massive. A point would be good, but the potential reward of 3 points far outweighs the potential set back of 0.

 

[Nottseagull]

But the odds of getting a head on a seventh throw is 0.5.

Not a lot of people know that.

It might not be obvious to you, but it is to most people.

 

[Nottseagull]

I'm unable to type in the reply field!

 

[Nottseagull]

Nah Arsenal will batter Chelsea 8-0.

We only need a standard no frills 4-0.

Tottenham managed it, so why can't we?