Main Coronavirus / Covid-19 Discussion Thread

[WATFORD zero]

It is tricky, but if we dawdled for too long (I'm not saying we are, I really am not sure) we'd end up losing more lives than we save, even if the TTT policy isn't great - they have said one will be in place June 1st, how good it'll be? Well, jury's out.

I have always thought and have been told, by the Government, that once we got the numbers down to a 'manageable' level, one of the mainstays of keeping it at that level as we opened up the lockdown would be Track & Trace. Indeed, South Korea and Germany took the WEO's test,test,test warning well over 2 months ago seriously and it is recognised that their testing and tracing is a (if not the) major factor in the way both have managed to control the virus and minimise fatalities.

Britain's Track and Trace was originally due to be rolled out this week. Johnson has now Trumpesquely announced we will have a "world-beating" track and trace system from 1st June in 10 days time. With these timescales, it could be very worrying if we didn't have so much confidence that Johnson is a proven man of his word.

Apart from the system currently being tested on IOW (which was due to roll out this week, and for which we have no feedback whatsoever), we have one other significant issue. We are unable to provide a testing system capable of giving accurate test results within the 48 hrs required for an effective Track and Trace system to work. Instead, we have concentrated on posting out hundreds of thousands of tests, without a chance in hell of them being turned around in 48 hrs in order to 'meet' Hancock/Johnson's ever changing 'testing targets', completely at odds with the really important target of testing, getting accurate results in a timescale sufficient to do something with the results.

This is why I am very concerned about lifting restrictions when the pre-requisites for managing the lower numbers of infections aren't in place and the Government don't appear to be capable of putting these in place due to sheer incompetence.

 

[jabba]

Antibody surveillance suggests 17% in London has had infection, 5%+ in general population, a lot lower than I had imagined.

 

[Deportivo Seagull]

Antibody surveillance suggests 17% in London has had infection, 5%+ in general population, a lot lower than I had imagined.

I thought it would be higher however the results are dependent on sample size, demographics etc. It would be good to know make up of the sample.


Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk

 

[jabba]

We are unable to provide a testing system capable of giving accurate test results within the 48 hrs required for an effective Track and Trace system to work.


They are assessing a test which does not have to go to the lab for analysis and gives a result in 20 minutes. Would make the tracking part easier as would not have the new contacts in the next (say) 48 hours for a test result.

 

[Mellotron]

I have always thought and have been told, by the Government, that once we got the numbers down to a 'manageable' level, one of the mainstays of keeping it at that level as we opened up the lockdown would be Track & Trace. Indeed, South Korea and Germany took the WEO's test,test,test warning well over 2 months ago seriously and it is recognised that their testing and tracing is a (if not the) major factor in the way both have managed to control the virus and minimise fatalities.

Britain's Track and Trace was originally due to be rolled out this week. Johnson has now Trumpesquely announced we will have a "world-beating" track and trace system from 1st June in 10 days time. With these timescales, it could be very worrying if we didn't have so much confidence that Johnson is a proven man of his word.

Apart from the system currently being tested on IOW (which was due to roll out this week, and for which we have no feedback whatsoever), we have one other significant issue. We are unable to provide a testing system capable of giving accurate test results within the 48 hrs required for an effective Track and Trace system to work. Instead, we have concentrated on posting out hundreds of thousands of tests, without a chance in hell of them being turned around in 48 hrs in order to 'meet' Hancock/Johnson's ever changing 'testing targets', completely at odds with the really important target of testing, getting accurate results in a timescale sufficient to do something with the results.

This is why I am very concerned about lifting restrictions when the pre-requisites for managing the lower numbers of infections aren't in place and the Government don't appear to be capable of putting these in place due to sheer incompetence.

If only you’d waited 25 minutes

 

[Mellotron]

I believe this update is the first time we’ve heard them say “on June 1st” rather than “no earlier than”. I take that as potentially good news that it will be June 1st we see a move into Step/Phase/Whatever Two.

 

[WATFORD zero]

If only you’d waited 25 minutes

Typical !

At least they are going to start testing something next week which may help. Hurrah we're saved

Seriously, of course, I hope it's successful and makes a difference, but we only have 10 days to test it, review the results and roll it out in order for it to be part of our new 'world beating' track and trace. Maybe it can take the place of the 70,000 tests they posted out yesterday ? (I'm making the assumption that sticking them 'in the post' ensures that those ones won't have a result in 20 mins, or anywhere close to 48 hrs).

 

[Kinky Gerbil]

I have always thought and have been told, by the Government, that once we got the numbers down to a 'manageable' level, one of the mainstays of keeping it at that level as we opened up the lockdown would be Track & Trace. Indeed, South Korea and Germany took the WEO's test,test,test warning well over 2 months ago seriously and it is recognised that their testing and tracing is a (if not the) major factor in the way both have managed to control the virus and minimise fatalities.

Britain's Track and Trace was originally due to be rolled out this week. Johnson has now Trumpesquely announced we will have a "world-beating" track and trace system from 1st June in 10 days time. With these timescales, it could be very worrying if we didn't have so much confidence that Johnson is a proven man of his word.

Apart from the system currently being tested on IOW (which was due to roll out this week, and for which we have no feedback whatsoever), we have one other significant issue. We are unable to provide a testing system capable of giving accurate test results within the 48 hrs required for an effective Track and Trace system to work. Instead, we have concentrated on posting out hundreds of thousands of tests, without a chance in hell of them being turned around in 48 hrs in order to 'meet' Hancock/Johnson's ever changing 'testing targets', completely at odds with the really important target of testing, getting accurate results in a timescale sufficient to do something with the results.

This is why I am very concerned about lifting restrictions when the pre-requisites for managing the lower numbers of infections aren't in place and the Government don't appear to be capable of putting these in place due to sheer incompetence.

If you get a chance listen to Karol Sikora’s interview on talk radio earlier today

He ran through the issues with the app

From memory it didn’t have all the symptoms loaded, slow turn around of tests and slow result feedback

 

[Herr Tubthumper]

Fair enough, and I'm not advocating complete return to normal straight away either, but the risk of catching the virus is now much reduced and the ability of the NHS to care for those that do is much stronger. It's time to move forward.

No it isn’t time to move forward at all. You really need to get a grip of testing and, probably more importantly, tracing, first.

 

[Harry Wilson's tackle]

Another very good point. There are clear societal advantages to ending lockdown. Not to drink driving.

That isn't what people were saying in the 60s. The ability to drink and drive was seen as essential lubrication for the fulfillment of the middle classes.

Obviously I'm not saying there wouldn't be economic advantages to ending lockdown. And 'what's a few men?' after all.....

But only a vaccine will keep the high risk (of death) folks safe (it is looking increasingy that the under 40s generally don't die but the over 70s do).

Perhaps there will come a time, perhaps soon, when folk are invited to go back to normal unless they are over a certain age (what age? A threshold somewhere between 40 and 70) and/or have other risk factors (lung disease, type 2 diabetes, perhaps), in which case they should be told to isolate. I would understand that instruction, even though I may end up under permanent lockdown (till the vaccine arrives). But nobody is giving me that clear message - isolate or risk death as we begin to open up society again. I'm 'only' 62 and have only minor respiratory impairment. Isolate may be what I should be told, but this government appears to be uncertain. If it is uncertain about whether my life is at risk by easing lockdown it shouldn't just ease lockdown, should it? That would be reckless incompetance.

The way I see it, a little more vigilance for a few more weeks, together with a much smarter handling of the situation by HMG, will allow me to get back to work sooner. Too soon a free-for-all and the likes of me will be on permanent lockdown, self-imposed without clear instruction from HMG, and possibly at risk of the sack if the furlough is ended. Call me selfish.....

 

[Machiavelli]

Antibody surveillance suggests 17% in London has had infection, 5%+ in general population, a lot lower than I had imagined.

From the limited information I've heard on this, it's not surprising. The general reports from the most respected bodies, epidemiologists, etc, is that the case rate is lower than previously thought/speculated.
In itself, unfortunately, it's not good news. It means that a series of measures/practices will have to remain in place.

 

[beorhthelm]

wait, does that mean lockdown has been to the detriment of dealing with the virus? many twists and turns.

 

[Notters]

From the limited information I've heard on this, it's not surprising. The general reports from the most respected bodies, epidemiologists, etc, is that the case rate is lower than previously thought/speculated.
In itself, unfortunately, it's not good news. It means that a series of measures/practices will have to remain in place.

Well, no we don't really know what it means at all do we? It could mean that some people aren't susceptible to the virus for whatever reason, it could be that many have it so mildly they don't have a significant immune response, or it could be that their exposure to other coronaviruses has given them some immunity.

 

[LamieRobertson]

Sorry, I think you've misunderstood me. The point is that the chances of surviving cancer are massively improved if symptoms are spotted as early as possible.

Referrals for potentially cancerous symptoms (i.e. people who don't know they even have cancer yet, but would normally get it checked out pre-pandemic) have been down to something like 20% of usual levels in the past couple of months - that's really quite scary. We are missing cancer diagnoses in what is likely to be tens of thousands of people - obviously these are pie-in-the-sky figures but some cancer specialists are suggesting the lack of referrals could cause 40-60,000 excess cancer deaths in coming years.

Any cancer epidemic due to missed referrals would be in the coming number of years, not across March-April-May of this year.

Hence why it is vital that the NHS is able to resume "normal" service asap, and that people feel safe enough to come forward if they have symptoms.

This is why I'm saying it's lives vs. lives. At some point deaths due to missed cancer referrals will outnumber new COVID-19 deaths (ie COVID deaths from now on, not from the start) - therefore a certain level of lockdown becomes counter productive, if the most important reason for the lockdown is to save lives. We may even be past that point now - it is so hard to judge.

I have a mole that is changing colour which i have only just noticed ....couple of years back i had one removed because it was i think the term, pre melanoma...mentioned it to the receptionist at my local doctors surgery this week whilst taking my Dad for a visit to the nurse (lucky chap)....i suggested i take a photo and send it in as at the mole I’d probably only get an appointment over the phone/video anyway....she thought it was a good idea...but even if it was ‘cancerous’ they aren’t doing referrals anyway

 

[Albion Dan]

Interesting. Would you mind telling me what daily dose? I have seen 200 and 400 mg tried for Covid.

Thanks.

She has one 200mg tablet daily as do a huge number of Rheumatoid Arthritis sufferers I believe. Has no effect on her at all and stops the RA from imflaming.

 

[Thunder Bolt]

The drug itself is relatively harmless. My wife takes it already for Arthritis as do millions of others. Could even explain why she had zero symptoms when I had a serious case of Covid.

I take 200g a day for Sjogren’s Syndrome. It reduces inflammation and helps with the chronic fatigue.
Long term it can cause problems with the retina in eyes, but a scan every 12 months must be done.
I also see my rheumatologist regularly (was 6 months but now every 12 months) but no other health checks needed. Lupus and RA patients also take it, as you say.

 

[Harry Wilson's tackle]

She has one 200mg tablet daily as do a huge number of Rheumatoid Arthritis sufferers I believe. Has no effect on her at all and stops the RA from imflaming.

Thanks.

 

[RossyG]

Link: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-52760871

Testing on children?

That doesn’t seem right.

 

[Jimmy Grimble]

Are they ‘following the science’ or not?

https://www.theguardian.com/educati...ol-reopening-plan-recommended-by-sage-experts

“The papers revealed that a low-risk scenario where pupils in England would attend school on alternating weeks was presented to the government as the most likely way to gain popular support, before ministers instead settled on their plan for a widespread reopening on 1 June.

The government’s plan for reopening schools to entire classes of reception, year 1 and year 6 pupils on 1 June was not among the nine scenarios modelled for Sage by the Department for Education. But one of the scientists’ preferred options of splitting classes and having pupils rotate between alternate weeks in school, which they said had “particular potential merit”, was passed over.”

 

[Lyndhurst 14]

Interesting comment made by a panelist on a chat show tonight. He said that a while ago he was chatting with someone and they said that the melting glaciers are releasing pathogens that have never before been encountered by mankind and as we approach the tipping point this could happen again. The panelist said he would normally dismiss this as a conspiracy theory but the other guy was from the Rand Corporation which is a respected think tank. I suppose something could lay dormant for thousands of years encased in ice and then be released - but it does sound a bit like a Hammer Horror movie