Main Coronavirus / Covid-19 Discussion Thread

[Hugo Rune]

This has been lost in all the Cummings and goings of the last few days but it’s no surprise that another Government initiative is hitting the rocks.

It seems like Mr Johnson will need to change the goal posts on his promise to have a ‘world beating track-and-trace system capable of tracking 10,000 cases per day’ by the 1st June.

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8351301/How-alerts-issued-NHS-track-trace-app.html

Nice of the Tory MP girlfriend to help get the numbers up though.

 

[Bold Seagull]

Looks like UK now has same death per capita as Italy, never thought it would have come to this...

What with the way it’s been handled, adhoc, prioritising of big PR items like Nightingale over testing and tracing, PPE etc. It’s been disaster mismanagement.

 

[beorhthelm]

This has been lost in all the Cummings and goings of the last few days but it’s no surprise that another Government initiative is hitting the rocks.

It seems like Mr Johnson will need to change the goal posts on his promise to have a ‘world beating track-and-trace system capable of tracking 10,000 cases per day’ by the 1st June.

certainly hope so, dont need a "world beating system" we need a competent one. and we did have one earlier before halting due to be overwhelmed. they have the people, they have the test capacity now, so just revert to establish system rather than depend on untested tech solutions.

 

[The Wizard]

Oxford researchers are saying the virus is declining so rapidly there may not even be enough virus left in the community for them to know if their vaccine works, so the tracing app and malarkey might not even be needed at this rate. The community infection rate is now 25% of what it was at peak with 5 time’s more testing, just that alone shows you how much the virus is on the retreat in general population.

I would also caveat that the actual number of cases at peak was probably even higher so 25% is probably a conservative estimate with regards to infection rates.

 

[Green Cross Code Man]

the peak is a statistical presentation, it doesnt mean the virus stopped. the infection is reducing but still occuring, some of those cases will be severe and some lead to mortality. and many (most?) will die from other illness while having covid, and some of them will be incorrectly diagnosed with covid.

Indeed, look at this from Germany in the last couple of weeks.

BBC News - Coronavirus: Over 40 Covid-19 cases traced to church service in Germany
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-52786242

 

[Blue Valkyrie]

Oxford researchers are saying the virus is declining so rapidly there may not even be enough virus left in the community for them to know if their vaccine works, so the tracing app and malarkey might not even be needed at this rate. The community infection rate is now 25% of what it was at peak with 5 time’s more testing, just that alone shows you how much the virus is on the retreat in general population.

I would also caveat that the actual number of cases at peak was probably even higher so 25% is probably a conservative estimate with regards to infection rates.

Maybe once "Superspreader Events" are locked down, then the virus declines rapidly ?

If we set up track and trace now, and bring the virus levels down to negligible, then we can start opening events for a couple of hundred at first, and gradually start to move this threshold upwards.

 

[The Wizard]

Maybe once "Superspreader Events" are locked down, then the virus declines rapidly ?

If we set up track and trace now, and bring the virus levels down to negligible, then we can start opening events for a couple of hundred at first, and gradually start to move this threshold upwards.

That’s my personal view, the biggest impact on the virus spread is person to person contact, in Japan this virus hasn’t spread anywhere near like what it has in Europe despite the fact they’ve not locked down at all, just masks, hand sanitising/hygiene and used common sense with regards to gatherings. They’ve only tested 0.2% of their population which is among the lowest of any developed country, they’ve also used no track and trace.

An interesting theory from Japan as well is that the BCG vaccine that nearly all Japanese children are given has made a big impact, it’s not been proven scientifically but I did read it being suggested a while ago that there is a link between the BCG vaccine and countries with much lower infection/mortality rates, the links are currently being investigated by WHO.

 

[Machiavelli]

Looks like UK now has same death per capita as Italy, never thought it would have come to this...

The UK went past Italy a few days ago now, despite having a longer period to prepare. See:

https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/data/mortality

 

[Machiavelli]

Genuine question - how can it be that there are still hundreds of deaths every day if the peak was so long ago? Personally, I don't believe the numbers being reported. I don't know why they would be overreported in such a significant way, maybe someone can enlighten me why it would be? Are there really so many people still dying of this virus?

I posted about a month ago that we should change from referring to a peak, to referring to a plateau, on the basis of the long, extended exit from CV19 that Italy and Spain were then experiencing. The trend really is downwards now, and has been for a long time, the poster who is most on top of daily numbers is [MENTION=14080]The Wizard[/MENTION].
Aside from nomenclature, a more precise way of answering your question is that the R-rate still remains high, with latest estimates putting it in the range of 0.7-1.0, plus factor in that deaths occur two to three weeks after infection.

 

[Blue3]

A few days ago and friend of ours was admitted to Worthing Hospital he was put into an induced coma while he was put on a ventilator, after treatment he was brought out of this coma and immediately suffered a cardiac arrest being in the best possible location for this to strike he was successfully stabilised, a decision was then made to put him back into an induced coma where he remains, we have been told to expect the worse, this virus is a killer and has not gone away yet irrespective of what I am seeing all around me please be and act responsibly keep yourself and others safe.

 

[The Wizard]

Genuine question - how can it be that there are still hundreds of deaths every day if the peak was so long ago? Personally, I don't believe the numbers being reported. I don't know why they would be overreported in such a significant way, maybe someone can enlighten me why it would be? Are there really so many people still dying of this virus?

View attachment 124019

Up to you if you believe the numbers reported I guess but these are the NHS England numbers by day of actual death (not day reported), ignoring the past 3 days as these numbers are subject to change, the hospital trend has been going down really quite rapidly, unfortunately a lot of people dying now will still be people who were infected a long time ago but have been kept alive by ventilators and machines I would guess, plus as you say if you go to hospital with a heart attack and catch COVID in the hospital that’s classed as died ‘with’ COVID and you also have to think there is still millions of people working so people will still be catching it.

 

[Notters]

That’s my personal view, the biggest impact on the virus spread is person to person contact, in Japan this virus hasn’t spread anywhere near like what it has in Europe despite the fact they’ve not locked down at all, just masks, hand sanitising/hygiene and used common sense with regards to gatherings. They’ve only tested 0.2% of their population which is among the lowest of any developed country, they’ve also used no track and trace.

An interesting theory from Japan as well is that the BCG vaccine that nearly all Japanese children are given has made a big impact, it’s not been proven scientifically but I did read it being suggested a while ago that there is a link between the BCG vaccine and countries with much lower infection/mortality rates, the links are currently being investigated by WHO.

BCG was given to pretty much everyone here until recently too though? I didn't need it, perhaps concerningly.

 

[Jimmy Grimble]

BCG was given to pretty much everyone here until recently too though? I didn't need it, perhaps concerningly.

BCG stopped around the mid-noughties if my memory serves me well. I vaguely remember being one of the last year groups to have it.

 

[Harry Wilson's tackle]

A few days ago and friend of ours was admitted to Worthing Hospital he was put into an induced coma while he was put on a ventilator, after treatment he was brought out of this coma and immediately suffered a cardiac arrest being in the best possible location for this to strike he was successfully stabilised, a decision was then made to put him back into an induced coma where he remains, we have been told to expect the worse, this virus is a killer and has not gone away yet irrespective of what I am seeing all around me please be and act responsibly keep yourself and others safe.

Indeed. I agree 100%.

There is some speculative bollocks on this thread. The virus takes around 5 days to 'kick off' but when it does it's effects are swift (peak symptoms in hours). The severity of the symptoms ranges from almost nothing to respiratory failure (acute pneumonia). The degree of severity goes up alarmingly with age(ver 65). That's it. It does not incubate for weeks.

Why vaccinate kids? They will be super spreaders when they go back to school - virtually symptomless themselves but passing the virus to each other, the mums, teachers and classroom assistants who will take it home and infect elderly relatives who then have a high risk of death. The fact that kids don't die of Covid or even show much in the way of symproms, doesn't mean that they are somehow resistant to catching the virus and spreading it. If they cough less they will be less projectile as spreaders, but it has been known for kids to hug their parents and grandparents, and even get bed time story and goodnight kiss.

I must say that it is no surprise to me the Japanese have kept it in check. Everyone wears a mask when they have a cold so wearing a preventive mask is second nature.

Also, the early talk here was that masks won't do much to prevent spread. That's complete bollocks. The virus spreads in tiny water droplets. A mask will catch most of this (in either direction but especially out). I have a feeling we were not all told to wear masks on day 1 because HMG knew we didn't have enough to go round.

Maybe Boris will clear sone of this up when he appears at today's press conference.

 

[Harry Wilson's tackle]

Also, the BCG theory.....the TB bacterium is...a bacterium. There is as much chance that the Japanese are 'resistant' to Covid because they still give everyone the BCG* vaccine as their fondness for raw fish, rice wine and whiskey. It is, however, a much poorer explanation than the use of masks, and their general hygeine and courtesy. I would have thought.

*If it were that easy to innoculate against a viral disease then, in general, once a human had enjoyed any infection, viral, bacterial, **** me, protozoan, worms, they would be resistant to all the rest. Jobza goodun, an end to the common cold, and everything.

 

[The Wizard]

Harry Wilson has spoken, I for one am glad to have the font of all knowledge about COVID-19 on NSC. He knows things even scientists don’t know and can predict the future, we are not worthy I guess we all may as well not discuss anything anymore

 

[beorhthelm]

the BCG theory is that it generally improves the immune system, from pre-Covid studies.

 

[vegster]

Indeed. I agree 100%.

There is some speculative bollocks on this thread. The virus takes around 5 days to 'kick off' but when it does it's effects are swift (peak symptoms in hours). The severity of the symptoms ranges from almost nothing to respiratory failure (acute pneumonia). The degree of severity goes up alarmingly with age(ver 65). That's it. It does not incubate for weeks.

Why vaccinate kids? They will be super spreaders when they go back to school - virtually symptomless themselves but passing the virus to each other, the mums, teachers and classroom assistants who will take it home and infect elderly relatives who then have a high risk of death. The fact that kids don't die of Covid or even show much in the way of symproms, doesn't mean that they are somehow resistant to catching the virus and spreading it. If they cough less they will be less projectile as spreaders, but it has been known for kids to hug their parents and grandparents, and even get bed time story and goodnight kiss.

I must say that it is no surprise to me the Japanese have kept it in check. Everyone wears a mask when they have a cold so wearing a preventive mask is second nature.

Also, the early talk here was that masks won't do much to prevent spread. That's complete bollocks. The virus spreads in tiny water droplets. A mask will catch most of this (in either direction but especially out). I have a feeling we were not all told to wear masks on day 1 because HMG knew we didn't have enough to go round.

Maybe Boris will clear sone of this up when he appears at today's press conference.

He has bigger fish to fry tonight, he has to wriggle his way out of the Cummings fiasco…..I also think you are a tad optimistic that Johnson will do the press conference tonight, he'll dodge it !

 

[Lyndhurst 14]

Stark cover on the New York Times today listing a thousand of the 100,000 people who have died in the States. Some of the brief descriptions of who they were are very touching

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/05/24/us/us-coronavirus-deaths-100000.html

 

[The Wizard]

Boris WILL lead today’s press conference at 5PM