Main Coronavirus / Covid-19 Discussion Thread

[Green Cross Code Man]

Exactly. And here's the first bit of concrete information I've stumbled across about plans -- or, what some are calling, "plans about plans" -- for easing out of lockdown. It comes from Scotland and (I know I'll get flamed by some for having the temerity to say this) is just another illustration of how much better a leader Scotland has than the whole of the UK.

Scotland publishes framework for leaving lockdown and adjusting to 'new normal'

Scotland must adjust to “new normal” of living with Covid-19, which may include cycling in and out of strict lockdown at short notice, according to a document just published by the Scottish government, which sets out its framework for progressing beyond the current lockdown restrictions.

The 26-page document summarises the Scottish government’s approach as follows:

Suppress the virus through compliance with physical distancing and hygiene measures, ensuring that the reproduction number remains below 1 and that the NHS remains within capacity.

Care for those who need it, whether infected by the virus or not.

Support people, business and organisations affected by the crisis.

Recover to a new normal, carefully easing restrictions when safe to do so while maintaining necessary measures and ensuring that transmission remains controlled, supported by developments in medicine and technology.

Protect against this and future pandemics, including through effective testing, contact tracing and isolation.

Renew the country, building a fairer and more sustainable economy and society.

It warns the public to expect a cycle of lifting and re-imposing restrictions, with the possibility of restrictions being re-imposed quickly if transmission suddenly escalates; talks about the urgent need to redesign workplaces and education settings to allow for proper social distancing; the need for “unprecedented levels of support and compliance from the whole population”.

It also concludes that now is not the right time to relax restrictions, but that over the next few weeks, based on the evidence and expert advice, options will be considered that include the easing of restrictions in a phased manner, for example easing restrictions on some outdoor activity before those on indoor activities, as well as tailoring options to specific geographies and sectors, or parts of the rural economy, or those able to work outdoors.

I just watched Nicola Sturgeon. She has really impressed me, I too think she is a good leader.

 

[Kinky Gerbil]

People are only currently looking at the small picture. When it becomes obvious that the effect of the restrictions is going to lead to many many many more deaths and social struggle long term than if the disease was allowed to run its course opinion will change.

This message is already becoming blatantly obvious and people are waking up fast.

There has certainly been a shift change today on the media and social media after yesterdays announcement. - in my view.

People are getting more testy out and about, lot of people realising they won’t have a job to go back to and there won’t be any jobs going

We have completely destroyed certain sectors and it won’t be long till others follow as a knock on affect - certain towns will have sky high unemployment levels.

If the stats are true that are coming out of Sweden and the states (suggesting it’s been there since Feb) which means the lock down wasn’t needed or as aggressively more people are going to turn as we would have just broken the country for something with a low death rate.

The damage has been done now, people are now scared to go out and that’s going to take time to change.

 

[Albion Dan]

I have just heard of somebody that has just died of Covid - 19. I don't know him. He was early fifties with no underlying conditions and not over weight. Been ill for 3.5 weeks and been on a ventilator for at least a week. Lived in the Midlands.

I'm early fifties, no underlying conditions except mildly high bp and slightly over weight. It's bringing this shit home.

An outlier case. I’m 46, got it, felt like shit for 10 days and recovered fine like well over 99% of people in our age group. Don’t worry.

 

[Notters]

Today's official actual date of death NHS graph (England only) shows the downward trajectory continuing (despite the story that some of the media seem to be pedalling).

 

[Napper]

anyone got the new case numbers yet ? Given where Spain are at , I'm not too optimistic on seeing much change here

 

[Notters]

anyone got the new case numbers yet ? Given where Spain are at , I'm not too optimistic on seeing much change here

Today's figure for the UK as a whole is 638.

See the graph above for further optimism.

 

[Birdie Boy]

try not to worry , majority of people absolutely fine with it

Thanks. I'm not the type to worry about this sort of thing. If it happens it happens. I only mentioned it as we were told it is the vulnerable that are at risk and not healthy people.

Sent from my WAS-LX1A using Tapatalk

 

[Questions]

My personal concerns over all this are the delays in the treatment of cancer patients. My wife was diagonised 16 days ago with colon/ bowel cancer after having emergency surgery for a life threatening abscess and sepsis condition. It took 8 weeks for colerectal dept to even get back to us with that news..it came out of the blue... her local GP inadvertently told us her CT lung scan was ok whilst discussing antibiotics with her... we have not been told where she will have surgery (Worthing or Bastingstoke) at times I feel they have neglected her... we are still waiting for the plan of attack... they cannot leave the treatment of a 50 year old women on some sort of backburner....

 

[Rugrat]

Today's figure for the UK as a whole is 638.

See the graph above for further optimism.

Hey Notters where are you getting these from? I look at this every day and the numbers are wildly different to yours ... has new cases running along at 4000+ daily

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries

 

[Notters]

Hey Notters where are you getting these from? I look at this every day and the numbers are wildly different to yours ... has new cases running along at 4000+ daily

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries

Sorry I read your message as deaths. New cases is 4,583: https://twitter.com/DHSCgovuk?ref_src=twsrc^google|twcamp^serp|twgr^author

 

[Albion Dan]

Hey Notters where are you getting these from? I look at this every day and the numbers are wildly different to yours ... has new cases running along at 4000+ daily

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries

New cases is the most irrelevant stat possible. I’d estimate 85% of actual new cases aren’t even tested based on the fact that you don’t get tested unless you need hospital treatment. Deaths is the main measure and then even those are now accepted as being overestimated quite heavily as a lot of those people would have died of their underlying cause anyway.

 

[CHAPPERS]

[tweet]1253330432151531522[/tweet]

 

[Bozza]

Thanks. I'm not the type to worry about this sort of thing. If it happens it happens. I only mentioned it as we were told it is the vulnerable that are at risk and not healthy people.

Without intending to sound rude - where have you been living for the past month or two?

Many "fit and healthy" people have died - no-one is immune to suffering severe symptoms of the virus, up to and including death.

It's absolutely the case that both the elderly and those with a range of underlying health conditions are most susceptible to the worst outcomes of this virus, but unfortunately absolutely anyone could suffer the same fate.

 

[dazzer6666]

My daughter lost a colleague yesterday............

https://www.thesouthernreporter.co....01SvQSNqAzZfVl-0us9qepdE8slk7wvs3sR419NFhXq5c

 

[WATFORD zero]

New cases is the most irrelevant stat possible. I’d estimate 85% of actual new cases aren’t even tested based on the fact that you don’t get tested unless you need hospital treatment. Deaths is the main measure and then even those are now accepted as being overestimated quite heavily as a lot of those people would have died of their underlying cause anyway.

Can I ask who is 'accepting deaths as a quite heavy overestimation' as I believe that due to the time lag in reporting the deaths they are being underestimated quite heavily, currently to the order of 36% meaning yesterdays Government announced total fatalities of 18,100 is actually in the region of 28,281.

As you can see below (from Number of Deaths thread) this is based wholly on the ONS detailed fatality figures released Tuesday on specific Covid 19 deaths across hospitals, care homes and community.

Taking the data released by the ONS and then comparing against the Government daily announcements I believe that we can now more accurately predict the effect of the time lag on the reporting of actual fatalities.

I have taken the figures from 17th March (when daily fatalities were 100) through to April 10th (last day for which the ONS have released detailed figures).

On average, over that period the Government announced daily death rate has been between 38% and 70% of the actual death rate (Average 52%).
The most recent 2 weeks of that period the accuracy has improved to an of Average 58%.

If the figures were to continue to become more accurate at the same rate yesterday's total fatalities announced would be 64% of the actual fatalities so the 18,100 announced would be in the region of 28,281. Hopefully, if numbers are falling, the effect of the time lag may not be quite as great, but I may be clutching at straws.

Sorry

In fact, a case could be made (not that I'm making it) that if the lag in the UK deaths being reported is the average lag across the world, then the international figures are not currently the 186,258 fatalities currently reported, but actually over 253,000.

 

[Birdie Boy]

Without intending to sound rude - where have you been living for the past month or two?

Many "fit and healthy" people have died - no-one is immune to suffering severe symptoms of the virus, up to and including death.

It's absolutely the case that both the elderly and those with a range of underlying health conditions are most susceptible to the worst outcomes of this virus, but unfortunately absolutely anyone could suffer the same fate.

When you say many, there has been around 30 NHS workers, whom are right on the front line and a few here and there. The odd 20 year old etc. Considering almost 30,000 have died from this, I don't think a handful is that many.

To be fair, I've stopped watching the news and don't read papers, so I may be missing something.

Sent from my WAS-LX1A using Tapatalk

 

[Green Cross Code Man]

Can I ask who is 'accepting deaths as a quite heavy overestimation' as I believe that due to the time lag in reporting the deaths they are being underestimated quite heavily, currently to the order of 36% meaning yesterdays Government announced total fatalities of 18,100 is actually in the region of 28,281.

As you can see below this is based wholly on the ONS detailed fatality figures released Tuesday on specific Covid 19 deaths across hospitals, care homes and community.

Certain elements of the press and some of the public are desperate to disavow the current measures. Lockdown is without doubt, whatever one thinks of its merits or otherwise, a disaster for many of them, and for our economy. In addition, if they allow themselves to believe that the epidemic is not as bad as they'd been led to believe, then, however misguided that thought may be, they feel comforted by it.

 

[Green Cross Code Man]

When you say many, there has been around 30 NHS workers, whom are right on the front line and a few here and there. The odd 20 year old etc. Considering almost 30,000 have died from this, I don't think a handful is that many.

To be fair, I've stopped watching the news and don't read papers, so I may be missing something.

Sent from my WAS-LX1A using Tapatalk

There have been many hundreds of cases of younger people who have died from coronavirus. Without lockdown, it would have been many many thousands.

Over 5% according to the Guardian.

 

[Rugrat]

New cases is the most irrelevant stat possible. I’d estimate 85% of actual new cases aren’t even tested based on the fact that you don’t get tested unless you need hospital treatment. Deaths is the main measure and then even those are now accepted as being overestimated quite heavily as a lot of those people would have died of their underlying cause anyway.

I might be being stupid here so the c4500 cases today were those tested. Is that correct?

Undoubtedly there are more untested 'new' cases that are mild or asymptomatic, and not needing attention but there's still 4500 a day needing medical attention.

If it was only 15% and in fact there are really 60,000 cases a day I guess that's good news, but during a lockdown?

 

[Bodian]

Why are these stores being reopened, where has the guidance changed? I thought we were still in the stage only essential businesses should be open?

Sent from my Power using Tapatalk

Hardware stores have always been on the official list of what can open. https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/880098/300320_Revised_Guidance.pdf