Main Coronavirus / Covid-19 Discussion Thread

[Blue Valkyrie]

Forgive me if I'm interrupting a separate chat but if you're into scrolling through Twitter until what's left of your day turns to dust, this is pretty compelling: https://twitter.com/i/lists/1240652229507526656

This is the best account I've seen for stats and analysis: https://twitter.com/ActuaryByDay/with_replies

Good news that they have downgraded the 1st wave UK deaths from 66,000+ ( NSC hated this prediction, and these guys were rounded on by NSC's experts ) to 37,000+.

Revised down again 30 minutes ago.

New modelling with recent data : 23,791 (14,076 to 50,820 range)

Peak : Today ! - 1,156 (247 to 4,255)

( Obviously bank holiday admin means today's official reported figure is artificially low. )

The lockdown is feeding into the model.

 

[Butch Willykins]

Revised down again 30 minutes ago.

New modelling with recent data : 23,791 (14,076 to 50,820 range)

Peak : Today ! - 1,156 (247 to 4,255)

( Obviously bank holiday admin means today's official reported figure is artificially low. )

The lockdown is feeding into the model.

This lot reckoned 66,000 just 5 days ago. What a pile of shit.

 

[RossyG]

This lot reckoned 66,000 just 5 days ago. What a pile of shit.

If you thought that was bad, you should see Prof. Neil Ferguson’s prediction of deaths from bird flu c.2005.

Prediction: 200,000,000

Reality: 459

The WHO were a bit closer. They predicted 150,000,000 deaths.

 

[Birdie Boy]

Really? I have just looked up the N95 3M 8000 mask on an FDA paper and this has a shelf of at least 10 years if stored in the correct conditions. Maybe stockpile these? And hopefully there is a need to replace them every 10 years.

I am not sure what grade of mask was quoted as having a limited lifetime but I doubt it was N95 ones, more like the ones that are supposed to only being effective for 10 minutes when worn.

Do nurses wear N95 grade makes?

If the N95s last 10 years then yes, it makes sense to have millions of these in rolling stock where the older ones go out to NHS and new ones ordered to replace them. When I say older ones, I mean never letting the rolling stock get more than 5 years old.

Sent from my WAS-LX1A using Tapatalk

 

[Bakero]

If you thought that was bad, you should see Prof. Neil Ferguson’s prediction of deaths from bird flu c.2005.

Prediction: 200,000,000

Reality: 459

The WHO were a bit closer. They predicted 150,000,000 deaths.

You mean David Nabarro at the WHO warned that the next outbreak of bird flu could kill 5 - 150 million people if it mutated into a form transmittable by humans. The death rate in humans of H5N1 was said to be 50%.

And Ferguson said up to 200 million, based on the fact that the global population is 6 times higher than in 1918, when Spanish flu killed 40 million.

Looking back at reports from the time it seems both were warning the world we need to be ready for a pandemic. Luckily, it seems we've got off pretty lightly with Covid 19.

 

[Blue Valkyrie]

This lot reckoned 66,000 just 5 days ago. What a pile of shit.

Yes. That "shit" was based on pre-lockdown data. Once the lockdown gradually fed into the daily data then the forecast figures started to decline.

Perhaps we need to quickly remove lockdown to see their forecasts soar ?

 

[Green Cross Code Man]

Yes. That "shit" was based on pre-lockdown data. Once the lockdown gradually fed into the daily data then the forecast figures started to decline.

Perhaps we need to quickly remove lockdown to see their forecasts soar ?

They should not have published the prediction based upon way out of date data. It was inevitable that the press would centre only on the headline figure without looking at the mitigating reason.

 

[Bakero]

They should not have published the prediction based upon way out of date data. It was inevitable that the press would centre only on the headline figure without looking at the mitigating reason.

It's a shame that we get alarmist headlines from the newspapers but we can't expect scientists to create models and keep the results under wraps.

 

[Green Cross Code Man]

It's a shame that we get alarmist headlines from the newspapers but we can't expect scientists to create models and keep the results under wraps.

I agree. However, when they published it, they knew it was based upon outdated data.That is irresponsible.

 

[rogersix]

If you thought that was bad, you should see Prof. Neil Ferguson’s prediction of deaths from bird flu c.2005.

Prediction: 200,000,000

Reality: 459

The WHO were a bit closer. They predicted 150,000,000 deaths.

are they both a, worst case scenario?

 

[Rugrat]

Yes. That "shit" was based on pre-lockdown data. Once the lockdown gradually fed into the daily data then the forecast figures started to decline.

Perhaps we need to quickly remove lockdown to see their forecasts soar ?

Plus I assune these forecasts are for when it's over?

My fear is economic and social pressure and not necessarily our safety will drive the lockdown relaxation and that could be catastrophic

Already countries are heading into a relaxation phase based on declining numbers yet those numbers are higher than the numbers that put them into lockdown. Surely that will drive a 2nd wave which, with a bigger base line start, will be way more prolific than the first

Maybe I've got hold of the wrong end of the stick but I very much hope we follow the Oz/NZ approach and not the Austria/Spain and what appears to be, US approach

It looks like the Japanese North Island has gone back into lockdown 3 weeks after coming out

 

[Bakero]

Plus I assune these forecasts are for when it's over?

My fear is economic and social pressure and not necessarily our safety will drive the lockdown relaxation and that could be catastrophic

Already countries are heading into a relaxation phase based on declining numbers yet those numbers are higher than the numbers that put them into lockdown. Surely that will drive a 2nd wave which, with a bigger base line start, will be way more prolific than the first

Maybe I've got hold of the wrong end of the stick but I very much hope we follow the Oz/NZ approach and not the Austria/Spain and what appears to be, US approach

It looks like the Japanese North Island has gone back into lockdown 3 weeks after coming out

Spain still has a strict lockdown. I can only leave my house to take the bins out and buy food. No exercise, no work. That's the reality for most people here.

 

[rogersix]

I agree. However, when they published it, they knew it was based upon outdated data.That is irresponsible.

the papers?

 

[Rugrat]

Spain still has a strict lockdown. I can only leave my house to take the bins out and buy food. No exercise, no work. That's the reality for most people here.

Yes, bad example probably. There has been a relaxation where some non essential workers are concerned though and I see that as a start.

My worry remains though, that decisions could/will be made on the trajectory of the downward line rather than the absolute numbers

 

[Bakero]

Yes, bad example probably. There has been a relaxation where some non essential workers are concerned though and I see that as a start.

My worry remains though, that decisions could/will be made on the trajectory of the downward line rather than the absolute numbers

It's true of course that some non-essential workers have returned to work this week but it's not widespread. Sanchez, the PM, has already declared that the current strict lockdown will be extended, taking us to mid-May.

In my case, there's no chance of going back into work before July so it's WFH for the foreseeable. I'm just hoping I cam get outside for a walk before then.

 

[Mellotron]

[TWEET]1249975520273596416[/TWEET]

A further useful case study. Faroe Islands certainly hinting towards a likely mortality rate of below 1%, and giving a further idea as to just how many may have been infected in UK, considering massive death toll here.

 

[Driver8]

[TWEET]1249975520273596416[/TWEET]

A further useful case study. Faroe Islands certainly hinting towards a likely mortality rate of below 1%, and giving a further idea as to just how many may have been infected in UK, considering massive death toll here.

If it’s 1% and death toll 10,000 that would be 1m people infected, 1.5% of the population.

 

[Rugrat]

[TWEET]1249975520273596416[/TWEET]

A further useful case study. Faroe Islands certainly hinting towards a likely mortality rate of below 1%, and giving a further idea as to just how many may have been infected in UK, considering massive death toll here.

I'd imagine social distancing comes fairly naturally up there?

 

[Mellotron]

If it’s 1% and death toll 10,000 that would be 1m people infected, 1.5% of the population.

I don’t think it’s 1%. I suspect it’s quite a lot lower.

Was simply putting this case study forward as it may soothe some of those who were worried of a mortality rate more in the 3-5% range. Also, all data helps us build the picture.

 

[sparkie]

If it’s 1% and death toll 10,000 that would be 1m people infected, 1.5% of the population.

10,000 isn't the true ballpark figure.

We need to wait for the ONS figures - which, by the way, cover only England and Wales[ Scotland and NI have different organisations ], and are released later - and care home figures.