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Main Coronavirus / Covid-19 Discussion Thread



Herr Tubthumper

Well-known member
NSC Patron
Jul 11, 2003
62,671
The Fatherland
sounds like good old fashion scaremongering. why wouldnt water and related chemicals be priority, protected industry like elsewhere?

For the same reason NHS workers weren’t protected?
 




Swansman

Pro-peace
May 13, 2019
22,320
Sweden
Given UK's death toll I think we'll be seeing a fair bit of herd immunity also. In a funny way, countries like Germany who have quashed the initial wave far better might struggle to fully open up as easily. Initial tests in Bergamo suggesting as many as 60% may have been infected.

Maybe. I'm a bit sceptic about the Bergamo numbers.
 






Herr Tubthumper

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Jul 11, 2003
62,671
The Fatherland
PPE you mean? The problem there was that China was the country making them.

Anyone know where the chemicals come from?

Always someone else to blame eh? If you outsource your work, you are still accountable and responsible.
 






Swansman

Pro-peace
May 13, 2019
22,320
Sweden
More on the water/food thing (its google translated so dont get all messy with me Harry) from The Swedish Civil Contingencies Agency (MSB):

"Agriculture, energy supply and electronic communications can be challenged, among other things, by lack of personnel, lack of spare parts and disruptions in logistics," says Maria Bergstrand, unit manager for operational management.

"There is a risk of a shortage of chemicals in the drinking water supply which can have consequences for our drinking water supply in the long term," says Maria Bergstrand.

There is also a risk of delays in flocculant deliveries used for water purification, according to Bergstrand.

When asked about when these shortages could occur, Bergstrand said "it could affect water and certain food types within 1-2 months unless the situation change".

Tests on people in Iceland resulted in similar figures, though.

Nice. Well, lets hope for the best. And lets hope the immunity lasts a while or its just... depressing.
 


Hugo Rune

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Feb 23, 2012
23,658
Brighton
its pretty well studied by now, and determined that coronavirus is spread by droplets, either in air momenatily or settled on surfaces. it is not airborne, floating around in the air for extended time.

As you say, it’s not an airborne disease due to the actual size of the virus. It comes out in your breath and does not ‘float’ but rather descends to the ground. You are clearly going to avoid infection if you are more than 6ft from an infected person (and don’t touch what they’ve touched and touch your face etc). However, add a breeze and perhaps an infected person cycling past you on a bike and the 6ft distance rule could be compromised; I think this was what the poster may have been getting at.
 




RossyG

Well-known member
Dec 20, 2014
2,630
Always someone else to blame eh? If you outsource your work, you are still accountable and responsible.

I’m not interested in blame or point scoring, just facts.

Outsourcing left us vulnerable, but it meant we got stuff a lot cheaper. Make it here and it cost 3-5 times more.

I’d rather we made it here, but even then we could never be totally self sufficient as we can’t grow rubber trees for Latex gloves.

Here are more facts:

The virus disrupted manufacturing in China and also created a domestic demand for the products.

An increase in demand globally led to more shortages. We had a contract with France which they just refused to honour.

China sent us PPE that turned out to be defective and unfit for use.
 


Mellotron

I've asked for soup
Jul 2, 2008
32,467
Brighton
Maybe. I'm a bit sceptic about the Bergamo numbers.

Figures in Iceland and China suggest similar. Given the insanely high contagion rate of this thing, more and more it would point towards high numbers being asymptomatic.
 


Herr Tubthumper

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Jul 11, 2003
62,671
The Fatherland
I’m not interested in blame or point scoring, just facts.

Outsourcing left us vulnerable, but it meant we got stuff a lot cheaper. Make it here and it cost 3-5 times more.

I’d rather we made it here, but even then we could never be totally self sufficient as we can’t grow rubber trees for Latex gloves.

Here are more facts:

The virus disrupted manufacturing in China and also created a domestic demand for the products.

An increase in demand globally led to more shortages. We had a contract with France which they just refused to honour.

China sent us PPE that turned out to be defective and unfit for use.

I’m no expert here, but surely simple risk/mitigation analysis would read something like:

Risk: PPE made overseas. Risk to supplies.
Mitigation: Maintain a reserve.

After all, wasn’t this what that pandemic planning thingy three or so years ago was supposed to be for?
 




RossyG

Well-known member
Dec 20, 2014
2,630
I’m no expert here, but surely simple risk/mitigation analysis would read something like:

Risk: PPE made overseas. Risk to supplies.
Mitigation: Maintain a reserve.

After all, wasn’t this what that pandemic planning thingy three or so years ago was supposed to be for?

There was a reserve, although I understand that was more due to Brexit.
 


Herr Tubthumper

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Jul 11, 2003
62,671
The Fatherland
There was a reserve, although I understand that was more due to Brexit.

Mitigation: Maintain an adequate reserve.
 






Swansman

Pro-peace
May 13, 2019
22,320
Sweden
It's been mentioned that masks have a limited lifetime, so you can't stock millions and millions of them just in case a pandemic comes along.

Sent from my WAS-LX1A using Tapatalk

Here in Sweden we had giant reserves of masks (among other things) produced during the cold war. Tens of millions. They were all burned in the 90s and a few weeks ago previous politicians faced a lot of criticism for this before someone who actually had knowledge came and said that the rubber in all these masks produces between the 50s to the 70s had rot and were useless, so indeed it seems just stocking up is harder than it sounds.

Though it sort of feels like the technology and materials to make i.e. masks that would survive for a long time should be achievable in this day and age, when we've supposedly been to the moon and all..
 


beorhthelm

A. Virgo, Football Genius
Jul 21, 2003
36,011
As you say, it’s not an airborne disease due to the actual size of the virus. It comes out in your breath and does not ‘float’ but rather descends to the ground. You are clearly going to avoid infection if you are more than 6ft from an infected person (and don’t touch what they’ve touched and touch your face etc). However, add a breeze and perhaps an infected person cycling past you on a bike and the 6ft distance rule could be compromised; I think this was what the poster may have been getting at.

difference between droplets and airborne by WHO.

Droplet transmission occurs when a person is in in close contact (within 1 m) with someone who has respiratory symptoms (e.g., coughing or sneezing) and is therefore at risk of having his/her mucosae (mouth and nose) or conjunctiva (eyes) exposed to potentially infective respiratory droplets. Transmission may also occur through fomites in the immediate environment around the infected person.8 Therefore, transmission of the COVID-19 virus can occur by direct contact with infected people and indirect contact with surfaces in the immediate environment or with objects used on the infected person (e.g., stethoscope or thermometer).

Airborne transmission is different from droplet transmission as it refers to the presence of microbes within droplet nuclei, which are generally considered to be particles <5μm in diameter, can remain in the air for long periods of time and be transmitted to others over distances greater than 1 m.
 


Guinness Boy

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Jul 23, 2003
37,334
Up and Coming Sunny Portslade
More on the water/food thing (its google translated so dont get all messy with me Harry) from The Swedish Civil Contingencies Agency (MSB):

"Agriculture, energy supply and electronic communications can be challenged, among other things, by lack of personnel, lack of spare parts and disruptions in logistics," says Maria Bergstrand, unit manager for operational management.

"There is a risk of a shortage of chemicals in the drinking water supply which can have consequences for our drinking water supply in the long term," says Maria Bergstrand.

There is also a risk of delays in flocculant deliveries used for water purification, according to Bergstrand.

When asked about when these shortages could occur, Bergstrand said "it could affect water and certain food types within 1-2 months unless the situation change".



Nice. Well, lets hope for the best. And lets hope the immunity lasts a while or its just... depressing.

Putting water on a rolling boil for a minute will purify it for drinking. You've just got to be a bit more organised about when you want to drink it surely? Which, in a lockdown, really isn't a problem.

Also not sure if she's talking about Sweden specifically or the world? The logistical challenges must surely vary from country to country. And she says SOME foodstuffs.

In the UK that's a risk that's already been acknowledged in a BBC report but it was very specific to SOME foods, specifically, here, local, seasonal fruit and veg (asparagus and berries the specific examples given). This is because they are normally picked by an army of immigrants, mainly Eastern European, who can't get here or live on the caravan sites. The elephant in the room the BBC report did not mention - and this was inexplicable - was that this was likely anyway over the next two to three years because of Brexit. This is just a larger, earlier version of the same issue. Hopefully most farmers had some mitigation plans in place for a no deal and, what they have now, is an army of young, fit Brits who understand food who have just been made unemployed from the restaurant and catering industries.

In the same way the distribution needs for foods have changed. All the time that cafes and restaurants are closed their old suppliers will be trying to move on surpluses to private buyers. In Brighton it's very easy to get fresh fish, meat and bread delivered if you know what you're doing. Only fruit and veg could be an immediate issue and then only if Brits won't pick it.

If the peak is still a long way off then there could obviously be issues with the supply of almost anything as people become sick or self isolate, so the above should all come with a "beware" warning. But if we are at or near the peak we will see people returning to work and movement sanctions easing. The supermarket shelves are currently bulging here, having been, ironically, empty at the start of the crisis, when everyone was working, due to dickheads hording useless shit like TP and pasta.
 
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Swansman

Pro-peace
May 13, 2019
22,320
Sweden
Putting water on a rolling boil for a minute will purify it for drinking. You've just got to be a bit more organised about when you want to drink it surely? Which, in a lockdown, really isn't a problem.

Also not sure if she's talking about Sweden specifically or the world? The logistical challenges must surely vary from country to country. And she says SOME foodstuffs.

Agree with the first part, doesnt sound like such a disaster to me but then again I know close to nothing about water purification etc.

No clue if she was talking about globally or just in Sweden but also agree that its probably very different between countries.

Anyway I've always felt it would be a decent idea to have a few hundred liters of water bottled up in case things get enitrely ****ed up. If there is a food deficiency I could just go roast some cat or rabbit or something, but water is water.
 


Mellotron

I've asked for soup
Jul 2, 2008
32,467
Brighton
This is potentially very telling from Chris Whitty in the update today;

Re: mass testing, "At this point in time, most people who appear to have Covid-19 do have it, but that wouldn't be true during flu season, for example," he says.

i.e. If you think you've had it in the past month or so, you probably have had it. I hope so. That makes me think they are looking at very different numbers to us in terms of how many have been infected in the UK.
 


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