Weststander
Well-known member
There are signs of a flattening of the new cases curve, may be and hopefully, but the aggregate number is increasing, with a time lag to the hospitalisation of those seriously ill.
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Main Coronavirus / Covid-19 Discussion Thread
- Thread starter GingerBeerMan
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There are signs of a flattening of the new cases curve, may be and hopefully, but the aggregate number is increasing, with a time lag to the hospitalisation of those seriously ill.
While the flattening of the curve for new cases is to be welcomed, what exactly does it mean realistically? The virus won't be any less contagious once we're all let back out again, and even if it drops to 0 for a week straight with everyone in quarantine, won't it just start going back up again as soon as people are allowed out?
From CNN...
Prominent coronavirus model now says today is peak day for new deaths
The influential coronavirus model by the University of Washington's Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation now calls today the peak day for new deaths, and revises several key numbers slightly.
The model update, released this afternoon, keeps peak hospital resource use on Saturday. But it moves peak death numbers to today instead of Sunday, and the number now peaks at a projected 1,983 — down from about 2,200 in an earlier version.
As for overall projected deaths, the model now projects about 61,500 in the US by August, compared to about 60,000 earlier this week
IHME has constantly been updating the model as new real-time data comes in.
Remember: The model assumes full social distancing measures in place through the end of May. But the real future of those measures is unclear as the federal and state governments weigh plans to reopen schools, businesses and other parts of society.
Prominent coronavirus model now says today is peak day for new deaths
The influential coronavirus model by the University of Washington's Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation now calls today the peak day for new deaths, and revises several key numbers slightly.
The model update, released this afternoon, keeps peak hospital resource use on Saturday. But it moves peak death numbers to today instead of Sunday, and the number now peaks at a projected 1,983 — down from about 2,200 in an earlier version.
As for overall projected deaths, the model now projects about 61,500 in the US by August, compared to about 60,000 earlier this week
IHME has constantly been updating the model as new real-time data comes in.
Remember: The model assumes full social distancing measures in place through the end of May. But the real future of those measures is unclear as the federal and state governments weigh plans to reopen schools, businesses and other parts of society.
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I mean while this is good, it also poses quite a lot of questions...
I mean while this is good, it also poses quite a lot of questions...
Solid at the back
Well-known member
There's been mixed reports about incubation period, I've seen 24 days mentioned before now.
The government said today that it won't be stopping international travel as "the science says" that it doesn't stop the spread of the virus, what a load of shit, erm yes it does. If there really is people out there still travelling internationally, then we absolutely without fail need to impose mandatory quarantine for everyone arriving into the UK, no exceptions, for along as necessary. 14-24 days?
Keep this semi-lockdown going until confirmed cases reach 0, and we have several weeks with no deaths, so that it's possible to get on top of this again with contact tracing. Once we're confident we can control this with testing and contact tracing, only then can we think about lifting the semi-lockdown in stages.
It would seem remarkable if the American Peak was only circa twice what we have the moment given laxer social distancing and six times the population?
They risk being ridiculed tomorrow.........or the day after.....
The guy didn't actually say that stopping international travel would not stop the spread of the virus. Basically he said that it wouldn't stop the spread 'within the UK'. He said that the only point of stopping flights into the UK would be to prevent the virus reaching us, but as it was now here, stopping flights wouldn't achieve much now. He sort of added that if we got to the point where the virus was no longer in the UK, then it could be worthwhile.
Considering how many may have already had it (studies suggesting 15% in Germany, so almost certainly quite a few more here, given the respective death tolls) if it did “start up” again, the rise/spread would likely be quite a lot slower next time, and therefore easier to more quickly contain and “shut down” again.
That would be the hope anyway.
Blue Valkyrie
Not seen such Bravery!
That is the same report as in #8613.
Their prediction of UK 1st wave deaths has been revised down from 66k(minimum) to 37k( minimum) after adding 4 new days of data.
Recidivist
Active member
Main Coronavirus / Covid-19 Dicsussion Thread
Is anyone else getting fed up with the pathetic and repetitive questioning by most of the journalists at the daily news briefings?
There seems to be a total obsession with Boris and an "exit" strategy!
You may not like the answer but stop asking the same question over and over again.
Einstein's comment about doing the same thing over and over again and expecting a different result springs to mind......
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Is anyone else getting fed up with the pathetic and repetitive questioning by most of the journalists at the daily news briefings?
There seems to be a total obsession with Boris and an "exit" strategy!
You may not like the answer but stop asking the same question over and over again.
Einstein's comment about doing the same thing over and over again and expecting a different result springs to mind......
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Spot on.
We've been shouting at the tv because of some of the nonsense questions from "journalists". Usually the Mail or The Sun, but pretty much all of them.
It's actually refreshing that some politicians (Hancock, Starmer) are just telling people facts (as far as they know) instead of "well that's an interesting question but blah blah Brexit blah".
The county wants to know what an exit plan looks like, it comes across as they have no idea.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-52196815
Interesting insight here on a typical day for a New York paramedic at the moment.
I would warn It's not easy reading though.
Interesting insight here on a typical day for a New York paramedic at the moment.
I would warn It's not easy reading though.
Nobody has any idea.
I can't believe I'm being an apologist for politicians but seriously, the journos are asking questions that can't be answered, and (for a change) the politicians (and scientists) are saying "we don't know yet".
So asking the same questions over and over again just makes you look like an idiot.
Although I get that that's their job. But some journalists have actually asked some really important questions.
Like the guy yesterday (can't remember which paper/agency) who asked Hancock about secondary deaths and the impact of the impending financial disaster.
Something massively important but that most people aren't talking about. That's journalism (MH answered very well tbf) rather than the "how many people will die and when can we go back to the park cos it's sunny" crap that most of the questions revolve around. When they've already been given the answer.
Recidivist
Active member
Spot on!
I'd be amazed if the government weren't giving an exit plan serious attention but to publicise what can, at best, only be a very general overview in a very fluid and uncertain situation can only invite further daft questions and distract from the main objective to bring it under control with sufficient data to plan a credible and resilient exit strategy.
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I haven't followed their numbers closely, but it feels a bit early for them to be hitting their peak. Are the figures being dominated by New York's results? I guess the rest of the country could peak later, and at various times, but if New York peaks now, the overall daily peak could coincide with that.
And where's Dr Legg? What a bunch of *****.
Yeah that's hard going.
So the medic keeps arriving at addresses of Covid19 patients, keeps performing CPR, and keeps losing the patient. This isn't like the general picture we've been given from elsewhere. I had the impression that patients (the ones in worst health) had symptoms which then become bad enough for the patient to need hospitalisation, and if things deteriorate they go on a ventilator etc. But this guy's experience is that patient after patient is becoming critically ill so fast that they don't even make it out of the house. The deaths this chap is witnessing would not even appear on our daily list, because they've not had a test and not died in hospital.
Why is this so different to the stories from elsewhere?
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