Main Coronavirus / Covid-19 Discussion Thread

[Jimmy Grimble]

Just lump it, but it will be all out in the open.

That's the way that France does it too, if you follow their daily stats, with random days showing > 1,000 deaths, where they include care home deaths. I'm not sure if they include home and hospice deaths with suspected covid19, but ours will.

When do you think ours will? They don’t currently.

 

[Harry Wilson's tackle]

The Lancet had lost credibility even prior to the virus thanks to its current editor, but he’s excelling himself these day.

The lancet lost credibility when it published that shite about autism and MMR.

I met Richard Horton at an editors meeting in the 1990s. His ideas of academic peer review of papers submitted to the journal amounted to a good lunch every Friday where the 'hanging committee' decided yay or nay. As an editor of a journal that even back then sent every submission out for independent peer review by at least 3 experts, with all papers requiring extensive revision before acceptance (and a rejection rate of 60%), I was appalled. Complacent and naive, were my thoughts.

 

[beorhthelm]

Will they go back and add these to each day's figures or just lump it on the day they are released figures?

they add the numbers to each day in the reports on NHS publish, but will also publish them in the daily count. i think its probably time to stop that daily update. as noted above, hospitalised cases and ICU cases would be more informative.

 

[Harry Wilson's tackle]

What do you think of the suggestions above, that Russia and Iran are making up their figures, Professor Plum?

On today's BBC page Russia apparently declared more than 1000 new cases in one day for the first time.



Putin has been saying there is no epidemic. The Iranians have declared plenty of cases and deaths. My feelings about both places is they are run by deluded yet maniacal power crazy idiots who care nothing about global opinion, and have leaders who play to the domestic gallery and have so much control of power and the masses they are complacent an actually unprepared for disruptive change, and while they may be able to encourage their nations to declare lower figures I am guessing they are low by no more than 50%. Given that the growth of this is on a log scale, it is a ten fold misrepresentation that is genuinely misleading, not a doubling or halving.

I also think that Russia and Iran are too chaotic to be able to deal with the sort of health crisis that had China and the UK knocking up pop-up hospitals in days, and if their numbers were really ten fold misrepresented there would be carnage out there.

The short answer is that I don't know.

 

[Weststander]

When do you think ours will? They don’t currently.

This Sunday coming, the ONS will release the UK number of those who died outside of hospital with covid19 and suspected covid19.

Estimates for European nations are 20% of total deaths.

So if hospital deaths with covid19 are say 10,000 by then, perhaps the new grand total will be 12,500?

 

[Wrong-Direction]

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[Triggaaar]

while they may be able to encourage their nations to declare lower figures I am guessing they are low by no more than 50%.

That would mean Russia have had 152 deaths (not the reported 76). I think a figure that low is unlikely.

 

[Wrong-Direction]

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[Jimmy Grimble]

This Sunday coming, the ONS will release the UK number of those who died outside of hospital with covid19 and suspected covid19.

Estimates for European nations are 20% of total deaths.

So if hospital deaths with covid19 are say 10,000 by then, perhaps the new grand total will be 12,500?

Thank you[emoji106]

I think you could be about right.

 

[jabba]

BBC reporting Boris out of intensive care.

 

[Harry Wilson's tackle]

That would mean Russia have had 152 deaths (not the reported 76). I think a figure that low is unlikely.

I can recognise understatement when I see it

Yes, indeed.

Well, I can't get myelf too exercised about Russia, yet. If in several months time their tomfoolery means they are still harbouring an infectious population that is a threat to the rest of us, I'll start to get agitated. But if that transpites the rest of the world will lock Russia out. It isn't as if we depend on them for anything, is it?


Oh

In reality, it doesn't matter hugely whether Russia can't count or won't count. They will have to act. In the meantime, the patterns from Spain and Italy (and the UK) and Germany and France interest me the most. And....too early to say.

All the best - and don't fret so much if you are fretting.

 

[Triggaaar]

I can recognise understatement when I see it

Well, I can't get myelf too exercised about Russia, yet.

Yeah likewise. I don't feel the same about China because the rest of the world relied on China's date, so if China lied, then other countries will have taken the wrong course of actions, and people will have needlessly died. I can't imagine anyone else is paying attention to the 'data' from Russia.

In reality, it doesn't matter hugely whether Russia can't count or won't count. They will have to act. In the meantime, the patterns from Spain and Italy (and the UK) and Germany and France interest me the most.

Indeed.

All the best - and don't fret so much if you are fretting.

I'm not fretting even a little. Of course I understand the lockdown is a nightmare for a lot of people, but it's an inconvenience rather than a big deal for me at the moment.

 

[Blue Valkyrie]

Just looked at the BBC page. The contrast between east and west Europe is monumental.

That can't all be down to population density, surely? In the west, cases seems to be directly proportional to population.

View attachment 121958

Well that just reinforces the thought that it is an escaped old Soviet bioweapon - programmed to be more lethal to western nations - and stored in the Wuhan biological warfare lab.

 

[Recidivist]

But that's 0.5% to 1% with a health system that's not overloaded. If a large percentage of the world caught the virus, a very small percentage would have access to a ventilator - particularly one with staff to man it.

Haven't looked at the detail behind the estimates (probably impenetrable anyway) but very few people get to the point of needing a ventilator anyway so its absence and/or lack of general healthcare is probably not a big factor in its mortality rate.

What's probably a bigger factor is the mortality rate of people without covid19 who can't get care because the system is overwhelmed.


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[Recidivist]

I can recognise understatement when I see it

Yes, indeed.

Well, I can't get myelf too exercised about Russia, yet. If in several months time their tomfoolery means they are still harbouring an infectious population that is a threat to the rest of us, I'll start to get agitated. But if that transpites the rest of the world will lock Russia out. It isn't as if we depend on them for anything, is it?


Oh

In reality, it doesn't matter hugely whether Russia can't count or won't count. They will have to act. In the meantime, the patterns from Spain and Italy (and the UK) and Germany and France interest me the most. And....too early to say.

All the best - and don't fret so much if you are fretting.

I can confirm (from a friend in Russia) that Russia is taking it very seriously and that Moscow is almost totally locked down plus other major cities.

No idea if their numbers are accurate though... probably not.


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[Harry Wilson's tackle]

I can confirm (from a friend in Russia) that Russia is taking it very seriously and that Moscow is almost totally locked down plus other major cities.

No idea if their numbers are accurate though... probably not.


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Very interesting - thanks for posting that.

As a matter of interest, it is still a bit nippy in Moscow. Daily highs of -5, -2 and +2 in Jan, Feb and March. That may have contributed to slowed spreading, pehaps. That and the vodka fumes.

Glad they are locked down now, though, dodgy numbers notwithstanding.

 

[Machiavelli]

Cheers. What I meant was in the west the number of cases is related to total population, and wondered if in the east the populations were lower and also more thinly spread (density) meaning greater distances between centres and less spread. But that is probably not the case.

Less travel was my first thought, but I didn't mention that (thanks [MENTION=23795]Hugo Rune[/MENTION] for mentioning it).

Probably it is the latter, more rich people whizzing about by plane. It probably equates to being cosmopolitan, as reflected also by being more used to foreigners, less racist, more 'mixing' etc. It certainly illustrates a real 'east west divide' whatever the reason. If this had kicked off later in the year, with mass holidaying in Greece, former Yugoslavia etc, it may look a lot different (and much worse).

Yes, and as [MENTION=24493]Rodney Thomas[/MENTION] indicates, they did go into lockdown very early. Orban has even used it to vastly extend executive powers.

 

[Harry Wilson's tackle]

Yes, and as [MENTION=24493]Rodney Thomas[/MENTION] indicates, they did go into lockdown very early. Orban has even used it to vastly extend executive powers.

Ah, those old luvley jubbly executive powers

 

[Sorrel]

The problem that we will have in a few weeks is how to keep the reducing numbers of new cases low. Australia and New Zealand can do it by having a lockdown and closing their borders, but that will be much harder for us to do.

Without that we might end up having a cycle of increasing and then reducing restrictions and cases in concert with each other.

 

[Rugrat]

The problem that we will have in a few weeks is how to keep the reducing numbers of new cases low. Australia and New Zealand can do it by having a lockdown and closing their borders, but that will be much harder for us to do.

Without that we might end up having a cycle of increasing and then reducing restrictions and cases in concert with each other.

We should do what Oz and NZ have done .... anyone coming in 14 days quarantine. Until that happens we never get rid of it. A small but significant move imo