Main Coronavirus / Covid-19 Discussion Thread

[Triggaaar]

This from BBC News shows how little can actually be gleaned from the daily total, and why they will likely continue to jump around and not show the true trends at points;

This method of reporting is completely inadequate. While of course we all understand that it takes time for confirmation of the cause of some deaths etc, when that confirmation does come, the government should attribute each death to the day on which it occurred, so we can see what the real pattern is like. And by we, I don't just mean the public, but also the analysts. The government themselves are producing graphs for their 5pm briefings, and using them to guide the decision making on lockdowns etc. They're not going to be making the best decisions if they're looking at crap data.

 

[darkwolf666]

You underestimate me.

Thank you, that genuinely made me laugh out loud.

I really hope no-one can see that man in the flowery shirt, sitting in his car, looking in his lap and laughing!



Edit:- My phone is in my lap!!!

 

[Triggaaar]

The best estimate of mortality rate (per Imperial College, I believe?) is between 0.5-1.0% so, even if the entire world population caught the virus, your suggestion of 100s of millions is significantly OTT.

But that's 0.5% to 1% with a health system that's not overloaded. If a large percentage of the world caught the virus, a very small percentage would have access to a ventilator - particularly one with staff to man it.

 

[Triggaaar]

I still have to.work, I keep 2 metres from everyone, wash and sanitise my hands atleast every 20 minutes. Leave mail posted through the door for a couple of days, wear gloves when filling up at petrol station etc. But am told I go way over the top!

I also leave mail that's arrived through the door (or I open it with a knife or something, then wash my hands etc), and wear gloves at the petrol station (and all other shops). I don't need to wash my hands every 20 minutes, because I'm not out among potential assassins, but otherwise I do similar to you. And I'm not anxious.

My plumber was round today, working outside, and not near me - but he wore a facemask the whole time anyway. It was like having Bane over.

 

[RossyG]

If he was wearing a mask, how do you know it actually was the plumber?

 

[Triggaaar]

Trump is now actively promoting the idea that they too can see light at the end of the tunnel.

I saw him say that in an interview a few days ago. He's full of sh*t, they were barely in the tunnel when he said it. He also said the lockdowns would be over by Easter, because Easter is his favourite holiday (or one of them). How's that going?

 

[The Wizard]

4300 new cases I believe. At least we are not seeing these sky rocket.

 

[RossyG]

The Lancet had lost credibility even prior to the virus thanks to its current editor, but he’s excelling himself these day.

 

[Triggaaar]

If he was wearing a mask, how do you know it actually was the plumber?

So maybe it was Bane, and there's a nuclear bomb in the garden!

 

[Hugo Rune]

Just looked at the BBC page. The contrast between east and west Europe is monumental.

That can't all be down to population density, surely? In the west, cases seems to be directly proportional to population.

View attachment 121958

My assumption is that super-spreaders from the richer Western Europe were infected in the Alps as the jet-set landed and enjoyed their chalets, parties and Ski trips.

Initial infection rates have to be linked to international flights. Do thousands of Eastern European’s holiday in the Alps and South East Asia? I don’t think they do.

We welcomed thousands back from Spain & Italy as they became hot spots. No surprise we’re one of the worst effected Countries.

 

[Machiavelli]

Just looked at the BBC page. The contrast between east and west Europe is monumental.

That can't all be down to population density, surely? In the west, cases seems to be directly proportional to population.

View attachment 121958

Thanks. That's interesting. By 'population' do you mean population size/density?

 

[Weststander]

I saw him say that in an interview a few days ago. He's full of sh*t, they were barely in the tunnel when he said it. He also said the lockdowns would be over by Easter, because Easter is his favourite holiday (or one of them). How's that going?

I wish his daily press conferences were earlier, so I tune in to see them all. As with the content, their start times are erratic. It’s a comedy show, led by an rude, dim and dangerous narcissist.

There’ve been several fantastic parodies/satires of these, over years, Trump must be a dream to comedy scriptwriters.

A classic every day is when his arch-enemies CNN ask difficult questions. Trump always ends his ill-tempered non-answer with “........ I knew that question would come from you. CNN, fake news”.

 

[Rodney Thomas]

Just looked at the BBC page. The contrast between east and west Europe is monumental.

That can't all be down to population density, surely? In the west, cases seems to be directly proportional to population.

View attachment 121958

Here in Greece we went into full lockdown after only around 100 cases (iirc). I believe others, for example the Czech Republic, did the same.

Perhaps that's the reason?

 

[Weststander]

My assumption is that super-spreaders from the richer Western Europe were infected in the Alps as the jet-set landed and enjoyed their chalets, parties and Ski trips.

Initial infection rates have to be linked to international flights. Do thousands of Eastern European’s holiday in the Alps and South East Asia? I don’t think they do.

We welcomed thousands back from Spain & Italy as they became hot spots. No surprise we’re one of the worst effected Countries.

I spend time in the Alps each winter. For 20 years there’ve been large numbers of monied Russians in French and Austrian ski villages.

Many believe that Putin is playing a propaganda game to show the Russian Empire as fitter and stronger than the West, by publishing very low covid19 figures.

 

[Harry Wilson's tackle]

Thanks. That's interesting. By 'population' do you mean population size/density?

Cheers. What I meant was in the west the number of cases is related to total population, and wondered if in the east the populations were lower and also more thinly spread (density) meaning greater distances between centres and less spread. But that is probably not the case.

Less travel was my first thought, but I didn't mention that (thanks [MENTION=23795]Hugo Rune[/MENTION] for mentioning it).

Probably it is the latter, more rich people whizzing about by plane. It probably equates to being cosmopolitan, as reflected also by being more used to foreigners, less racist, more 'mixing' etc. It certainly illustrates a real 'east west divide' whatever the reason. If this had kicked off later in the year, with mass holidaying in Greece, former Yugoslavia etc, it may look a lot different (and much worse).

 

[Hugo Rune]

I spend time in the Alps each winter. For 20 years there’ve been large numbers of monied Russians in French and Austrian ski villages.

Many believe that Putin is playing a propaganda game to show the Russian Empire as fitter and stronger than the West, by publishing very low covid19 figures.

I’d forgotten the monied Russians. They are of course in all the exclusive holiday destinations in Europe and I trust the Russian figures about as much as I trust the Iranian ones.

The Iranian’s have clearly put a cap on reporting more than 150ish deaths a day. I’d be very surprised if the Russians don’t introduce a similar cap.

 

[Harry Wilson's tackle]

Thank you for the good wishes. I am currently sitting in the car park at Maidstone Hospital waiting for my wife after her treatment, I'm not allowed in. But on the upside the car park is free now!!!

Strangely all this talk of easing restrictions doesn't really affect me or my wife. We are shielding for the 12 weeks (minimum as the government have put it) - yes 12 weeks of not going out - apart from to sit in a car park, 12 weeks of having no-one in to our home, 12 weeks of not going out to exercise, shop or any other excuse to get out of the house.

I say 12 weeks, as I think it is likely to be a lot more, especially if those that are being asked to do 3 weeks of a soft lockdown can't play ball (metaphorically that is, as ball games are not allowed)!

Best wishes to you both. A timely reminder that it isn't about plums like me not getting infected, it is about plums like me not infecting anyone else.

 

[Harry Wilson's tackle]

Just lump it, but it will be all out in the open.

That's the way that France does it too, if you follow their daily stats, with random days showing > 1,000 deaths, where they include care home deaths. I'm not sure if they include home and hospice deaths with suspected covid19, but ours will.

A wide array of methodologies across the world, some (Russia) driven by national pride to make them appear healthy.

Are the BBC figures for France provided by France? All day today the BBC page shows a 20,000 fall in cumulative confirmed cases in consecutive days.

 

[Triggaaar]

Best wishes to you both. A timely reminder that it isn't about plums like me not getting infected, it is about plums like me not infecting anyone else.

What do you think of the suggestions above, that Russia and Iran are making up their figures, Professor Plum?

 

[beorhthelm]

My assumption is that super-spreaders from the richer Western Europe were infected in the Alps as the jet-set landed and enjoyed their chalets, parties and Ski trips.

Initial infection rates have to be linked to international flights. Do thousands of Eastern European’s holiday in the Alps and South East Asia? I don’t think they do.

i dont know if they holiday much in winter, but apparently thousands flocked back as other european countries went into lockdown. i expect they'll show higher than normal pneumonia deaths when we see their data later in the year.