Main Coronavirus / Covid-19 Discussion Thread

[Blue3]

The World Health Organization estimated on March 3 that the global death rate for COVID-19 was about 3.4%. New research (that has yet to be peer-reviewed) from a group of Chinese researchers suggested the rate could be lower than WHO's estimate — it found that the death rate in Wuhan, China, where the outbreak began in December, was about 1.4%.

The death rate of a disease is different from its mortality rate, which is the number of deaths out of the number of people in an at-risk population. A death rate is not a reflection of the likelihood that a given person will die.

According to Anthony Fauci, the director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, COVID-19's mortality rate is probably around 1%, which is still about 10 times the flu's.

 

[Rodney Thomas]

go and read about flu / pandemics and deaths etc .

The mortality rate is less than 1%

THAT is your response?

Well I'm converted, dont worry everyone it's not as bad as the flu, all media hype, governments and experts around the world dont understand shit. Etc. Etc.

 

[Rodney Thomas]

They migh do if they find they are becoming stationary

Bravo, sir, bravo!

 

[sparkie]

View attachment 121178

It's the #Cases figure which is :

(a) dodgy as we don't have a universal test

(b) arbitrary as testing policy is different in each country

 

[Rodney Thomas]

It's the #Cases figure which is :

(a) dodgy as we don't have a universal test

(b) arbitrary as testing policy is different in each country

And...

(C) as this is still relatively recent for many countries, there is still a much higher proportion of open cases than closed.

 

[Triggaaar]

In fairness its quite a sensible idea to have a chest freezer somewhere if you are lucky to have somewhere to put it.

But if that was what you wanted to do, you'd have done it already. Doing it now, so you can panic buy everything, is just ****ish (yes there are a couple of exceptions for people who are extremely vulnerable to the virus and properly self-isolating).

 

[Blue3]

It's the #Cases figure which is :

(a) dodgy as we don't have a universal test

(b) arbitrary as testing policy is different in each country

Absolutely true but at present its based upon the best data available in the USA of the patients aged between 65 and 74 that were hospitalized Upto 19% needed intensive care and up to 4.9% in this age group died.

Approximately 49 million people in the U.S. are 65 or older while in the UK that figure is 11.9 million

 

[Triggaaar]

People don’t act like this over normal flu

That's because this is much worse than normal flu.

which kills so many more

This would kill a lot more than flu if it weren't for countries going into lock-down.

and is very dangerous for those with health issues ( which I believe pretty much all deaths have been )

They haven't been.

9,000 is tragic but in scheme of things compared to other things need some perspective here .

Why would you look at the current total of 9,000 as if that somehow means this isn't a big deal, when it's blinding ****ing obvious that 9,000 is just the start?

Death rates low and even lower when consider those figures often don’t take into account the true numbers that have this form of flu

Low? 8% of Italian's who've been recorded as having the virus have died, and that doesn't include the chunk of them still in a critical condition. I agree that it doesn't take into account the true numbers of people who have had it, but that was your second point.

The end of the world isn’t coming

No, we know. You could have said the same when WW2 broke out.

 

[Napper]

View attachment 121178

The World Health Organization estimated on March 3 that the global death rate for COVID-19 was about 3.4%. New research (that has yet to be peer-reviewed) from a group of Chinese researchers suggested the rate could be lower than WHO's estimate — it found that the death rate in Wuhan, China, where the outbreak began in December, was about 1.4%.

The death rate of a disease is different from its mortality rate, which is the number of deaths out of the number of people in an at-risk population. A death rate is not a reflection of the likelihood that a given person will die.

According to Anthony Fauci, the director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, COVID-19's mortality rate is probably around 1%, which is still about 10 times the flu's.

That’s confirmed cases . Didn’t the who estimate 50,000 uk as of a few days ago .

Death rate in reality pretty low

 

[redoubtable seagull]

It's the #Cases figure which is :

(a) dodgy as we don't have a universal test

(b) arbitrary as testing policy is different in each country

I’ve seen a report from a doctor/researcher at John Hopkins where he forecasts the death rate will likely be less than 1%. This is due to the thinking that, as many are forecasting, 60-80% of a country’s population could get it.

 

[peterward]

Going to explain why ?

The media has whipped everyone up .

People don’t act like this over normal flu which kills so many more and is very dangerous for those with health issues ( which I believe pretty much all deaths have been )

9,000 is tragic but in scheme of things compared to other things need some perspective here .

Death rates low and even lower when consider those figures often don’t take into account the true numbers that have this form of flu

Be careful but people really need to calm down a bit .

The end of the world isn’t coming

That's a very narrow view. Deaths alone,ignoring the mass restrictions and global economy grinding to a standstill.

I'm not convinced the end of the world is coming just yet either, but this episode, especially what is going on in supermarkets proves the population are just 3 square meals away from anarchy and social breakdown.

After the huge financial stimulus measures last week by central banks, the world bank said they have played every card they have, there are no more levers. Gargantuan global debt already, now faces, added to that, a virtually complete economic shutdown with the real potential of total
Global economic collapse.

Will it happen now? Probably not, but be under no illusion of the economic gravity of the precipice we are flirting with, it directly and indirectly affects everyone. Few weeks ago it was just bog roll and pasta, now it's everything, if there is a panicked run on the banks all bets are off, This simply cannot go on to long.

 

[Deleted member 22389]

Rushed back from my job this morning hoping to get my mum in to Sainsbury's for the OAP slot. Got there 7:05, turned around and came back home. Car park full and queues going up the road, never seen anything like it in my life. Sainsbury's Newhaven like a lot of other supermarkets will be cleared in hours. This can't go on.

 

[Rugrat]

That’s confirmed cases . Didn’t the who estimate 50,000 uk as of a few days ago .

Death rate in reality pretty low

True, but what that graph fails to show is recovered cases. Probably as much as half of cases still to conclude so the death rate (as shown there) will increase

 

[Garry Nelson's teacher]

Looks like China has rid itself of the virus in that no new cases overnight. This is astonishing. And good news.

 

[Louis MacNeice]

Ridding itself of the virus and no new cases are not the same thing. China has effectively suppressed transmission but the virus is still in the population; the expectation is that when restrictions are lifted infection rates will rise again. There is no quick solution to the medical emergency anymore than there is to the economic and social dislocation. We are in this for the long haul and it would be better if people, businesses and governments grasped this nettle early on.

 

[GingerBeerMan]

That's because this is much worse than normal flu.
This would kill a lot more than flu if it weren't for countries going into lock-down.
They haven't been.
Why would you look at the current total of 9,000 as if that somehow means this isn't a big deal, when it's blinding ****ing obvious that 9,000 is just the start?

Low? 8% of Italian's who've been recorded as having the virus have died, and that doesn't include the chunk of them still in a critical condition. I agree that it doesn't take into account the true numbers of people who have had it, but that was your second point.

No, we know. You could have said the same when WW2 broke out.

Surprised that 240 pages into this thread and there are still 'its just the flu' people posting. If only the government would listen to them!

 

[Deleted member 22389]

Ridding itself of the virus and no new cases are not the same thing. China has effectively suppressed transmission but the virus is still in the population; the expectation is that when restrictions are lifted infection rates will rise again. There is no quick solution to the medical emergency anymore than there is to the economic and social dislocation. We are in this for the long haul and it would be better if people, businesses and governments grasped this nettle early on.

Yep, no quick fixes to this unfortunately. However if all countries can get this virus down to manageable levels then tracking and treating it will be much easier.

 

[Rugrat]

Rushed back from my job this morning hoping to get my mum in to Sainsbury's for the OAP slot. Got there 7:05, turned around and came back home. Car park full and queues going up the road, never seen anything like it in my life. Sainsbury's Newhaven like a lot of other supermarkets will be cleared in hours. This can't go on.

Wonderful. We are supposed to be returning home next Tuesday and not a bit of food in house. Got a delivery set up for following Monday but not confident that much will show up.

I might try and persuade Mrs to stay here. We might be in lockdown but people are generally behaving well and food shops are pretty well stocked.

It will likely mean we don't get home for several months and our travel insurance expires but the prospect is looking more appealing by the day

 

[vagabond]

Coronavirus / Covid-19

Going to explain why ?

The media has whipped everyone up .

People don’t act like this over normal flu which kills so many more and is very dangerous for those with health issues ( which I believe pretty much all deaths have been )

9,000 is tragic but in scheme of things compared to other things need some perspective here .

Death rates low and even lower when consider those figures often don’t take into account the true numbers that have this form of flu

Be careful but people really need to calm down a bit .

The end of the world isn’t coming

It looks like people are already (quite rightly) taking you to task for your ignorant comments here. I suspect you’re one of those ‘uh it’s just a flu mate’ guys laughing at the warning signs back in early Feb.

To add to what others have said I’d suggest taking a look around the country and the world right now. Have you not noticed anything?

Entire sports have been cancelled. Cities globally are on lock down, entire industries have been laid off, schools shutdown. This is history. Completely unprecedented. If you disagree and feel otherwise please state any similar crisis years post war, I look forward to your answer.

Make no mistake, the global economic fallout of this is as dangerous if not more than the virus itself.

Oh and comparing numbers to flu is also very naive at this point. This epidemic has only started, not even peaked in Europe yet

 

[Deleted member 22389]

Wonderful. We are supposed to be returning home next Tuesday and not a bit of food in house. Got a delivery set up for following Monday but not confident that much will show up.

I might try and persuade Mrs to stay here. We might be in lockdown but people are generally behaving well and food shops are pretty well stocked.

It will likely mean we don't get home for several months and our travel insurance expires but the prospect is looking more appealing by the day

My relatives in southern Italy are under lock down, but shops are well stocked. Don't know what FK is going on here. May be we have too much choice and people are buying stuff they will never actually eat.