Main Coronavirus / Covid-19 Discussion Thread

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Jimmy Grimble

Well-known member
Nov 10, 2007
10,095
Starting a revolution from my bed
Yes.

But if you look at the orange and green lines, they track together right now, so school closures make no difference.

It’s only when you get to around mid-April that closing schools drags the green line down and keeps it below NHS capacity.

Those diagrams perfectly explain the repeated mantra of closing schools when the time is right to do so.

Cheers, just about got it now.

I think the pressure to close them will mount before then, especially if we start seeing teachers with confirmed cases (or worse). Fingers crossed not [emoji1696]
 








KoreanSeagull

New member
Dec 1, 2019
77
Not North
Hi, I'm from South Korea.

The situation here got a lot better than western Europe countries.

I have a question, why don't you guys wear masks? I saw in the news that they treat you as a sufferer if you wear masks and there was various assault incidents to mask wearing people.

In Korea, if you don't wear masks you get treated as a idiot.

Wearing mask has effectness on protecting yourself, but it can protect others from you too.

The reason people get infected is because of the infectee's saliva. If you wear mask when you go outside, even if your infected at least others don't get infected by you.

95% of the koreans nowadays wear masks whereever they go, and that's one of the reason we fought successively through the risky period.

I don't get why people wearing masks are treated like that, and there are no words from the public broadcast on the importance of wearing masks.

나의 LGM-G600L 의 Tapatalk에서 보냄
 


Swansman

Pro-peace
May 13, 2019
22,320
Sweden
I can't get my head round this.

Why are the government telling us not to go to the pub/social environs and not enforcing it ?

I really, really, can't get my head round this.

If you saw the press conference with Boris Johnson he acted and responded as if its defo happening. Got the feeling there is only some legal or economical or other practical thing to sort out before its enforced.
 




vagabond

Well-known member
May 17, 2019
9,804
Brighton
Coronavirus / Covid-19

I can't get my head round this.

Why are the government telling us not to go to the pub/social environs and not enforcing it ?

I really, really, can't get my head round this.

One theory I’ve been reading about tonight is Insurance. Why beyond that, I don’t know.

If the Tories don’t mandate all these businesses close it leaves the decision in their hands, meaning they can’t claim.

Notice how precise their wording is.

In a nutshell:

https://twitter.com/PaulBrandITV/status/1239625722332958726?s=20
 








Mental Lental

Well-known member
Jul 5, 2003
2,299
Shiki-shi, Saitama
Hi, I'm from South Korea.

The situation here got a lot better than western Europe countries.

I have a question, why don't you guys wear masks? I saw in the news that they treat you as a sufferer if you wear masks and there was various assault incidents to mask wearing people.

In Korea, if you don't wear masks you get treated as a idiot.

Wearing mask has effectness on protecting yourself, but it can protect others from you too.

The reason people get infected is because of the infectee's saliva. If you wear mask when you go outside, even if your infected at least others don't get infected by you.

95% of the koreans nowadays wear masks whereever they go, and that's one of the reason we fought successively through the risky period.

I don't get why people wearing masks are treated like that, and there are no words from the public broadcast on the importance of wearing masks.

나의 LGM-G600L 의 Tapatalk에서 보냄

People in Japan have been obsessive mask wearers even before this virus started. I'm tired of getting funny looks for not wearing masks when I'm out and about in the current climate. The reason why I don't wear a mask is because rather than follow populist sheep dogma about the things I actually instead decided to read the official advice regarding masks on the WHO website. The official WHO advice on mask wearing is that healthy people shouldn't wear them if they are not on the front lines for exposure to the virus (hospitals, ambulance drivers etc). The biggest misconception about mask wearing is that they stop you from contracting viruses. They don't. They do however help with stopping the spread of viruses if people with symptoms wear them if they have to go out in public. But seeing as with this virus if you have symptoms you shouldn't be out at all, it's really only health industry professionals that need them. To reiterate in simple English....

The World Health Organisation says healthy people who have no symptoms shouldn't wear masks unless they are taking care of people who have the virus.

https://www.who.int/emergencies/dis...9/advice-for-public/when-and-how-to-use-masks

That's why.
 




5ways

Well-known member
Sep 18, 2012
2,217
People in Japan have been obsessive mask wearers even before this virus started. I'm tired of getting funny looks for not wearing masks when I'm out and about in the current climate. The reason why I don't wear a mask is because rather than follow populist sheep dogma about the things I actually instead decided to read the official advice regarding masks on the WHO website. The official WHO advice on mask wearing is that healthy people shouldn't wear them if they are not on the front lines for exposure to the virus (hospitals, ambulance drivers etc). The biggest misconception about mask wearing is that they stop you from contracting viruses. They don't. They do however help with stopping the spread of viruses if people with symptoms wear them if they have to go out in public. But seeing as with this virus if you have symptoms you shouldn't be out at all, it's really only health industry professionals that need them. To reiterate in simple English....

The World Health Organisation says healthy people who have no symptoms shouldn't wear masks unless they are taking care of people who have the virus.

https://www.who.int/emergencies/dis...9/advice-for-public/when-and-how-to-use-masks

That's why.

It does no harm to put other people's minds are rest by just wearing a mask. It is not about you – it is about everyone else. You may be asymptomatic, without a mask you are not protecting others. I am surprised they let people without masks into public places in Japan. Here in Shanghai _everyone_ must wear a mask in most circumstances.
 






Mental Lental

Well-known member
Jul 5, 2003
2,299
Shiki-shi, Saitama
It does no harm to put other people's minds are rest by just wearing a mask. It is not about you – it is about everyone else. You may be asymptomatic, without a mask you are not protecting others. I am surprised they let people without masks into public places in Japan. Here in Shanghai _everyone_ must wear a mask in most circumstances.

I think there's definitely a case for encouraging your populace to wear masks as a placebo effect. It does seem to me like Japan have at least not gone out of their way to advertise when, how and where mask usage can be effective. Perhaps in favour of a blanket "just let everyone wear them if they think it helps" policy. The trouble is when you get to the current situation and, as with the bog roll, people start panic buying and stockpiling the things.
 


Mellotron

I've asked for soup
Jul 2, 2008
32,468
Brighton




5ways

Well-known member
Sep 18, 2012
2,217
I think there's definitely a case for encouraging your populace to wear masks as a placebo effect. It does seem to me like Japan have at least not gone out of their way to advertise when, how and where mask usage can be effective. Perhaps in favour of a blanket "just let everyone wear them if they think it helps" policy. The trouble is when you get to the current situation and, as with the bog roll, people start panic buying and stockpiling the things.

There is definitely a sense of 'all in it together' because we are all wearing masks. That is no bad thing I think, people take it seriously and it is a visual reminder that we all must play a part. For what it is worth, there does not seem to be a shortage of any of these basic items in China but you cannot get the more high-tech 3M stuff.

If I were you I would just put up with it for a while – just for the benefit of others. I don't want to get into stereotypes but I can imagine Japanese people being uncomfortable but not daring to say anything. And it can help, KoreanSeagull is right - it spreads via coughing and sneezing and hey if you're wearing a mask you're going to limit the splash zone.

I pull my mask down when I am cycling/jogging and take it off at restaurants (obviously) but it is not too much hassle to have one on when just out and about, I feel. That said, I am used to wearing an air filter mask anyway so it is not a particularly new thing to me!
 


Swansman

Pro-peace
May 13, 2019
22,320
Sweden
Very interesting twitter thread here that goes into more detail of the Imperial College report and the shift in tactics...

[tweet]1239619001522761728[/tweet]

Some snippets from those who can't be arsed to look...

- "We will be in quite different world for year or more. There is no end to major measures until we get vaccine."
- "We were expecting herd immunity to build. We now realise it’s not possible to cope with that. "
- Best guess 35-50k people currently infected.
- "Closing schools would have some effect at reducing transmission. Closing schools on its own will have a significant effect on healthcare capacity."
- "The aim now is not to slow the rate of growth of cases, but put the epidemic in reverse. Hopefully there will be tens of thousands of deaths. Maybe just a few thousand."
- "The only exit strategy is really vaccination or other forms of innovative technology."

So Boris said "infections seem to double every five or six days", some Italian expert or doctor or goldfish owner said "two or three days". So lets say a 25% increase every day..

Day 1: 40 000 x 0,25 = 10 000 new infections, total: 50 000
Day 2: 50 000 x 0,25 = 12 500 new infections, total: 62 500
Day 3: 62 500 x 0,25 = 15 625 new infections, total: 78 125
Day 4: 78 125 x 0,25 = 19 531,25 new infections, total: 97 656
Day 5: 97 656 x 0,25 = 24 414 new infections, total: 122 070
Day 6: 122 070 x 0,25 = 30 517 new infections, total: 152 588
Day 7: 152 588 x 0,25 = 38 147 new infections, total: 190 735

If 1% die that is 1907 people. From one week of "do nothing"-spread.

If their "best guess" is wrong and there is a higher yet presumably not completely unrealistic number like 200 000 currently infected:

Day 1: 200 000 x 0,25 = 50 000 new cases, total 250 000
Day 2: 250 000 x 0,25 = 62 500 new cases, total 312 500
Day 3: 312 500 x 0,25 = 78 125 new cases, total: 390 625
Day 4: 390 625 x 0,25 = 97 656 new cases, total: 488 281
Day 5: 488 281 x 0,25 = 122 070 new cases, total: 610 351
Day 6: 610 351 x 0,25 = 152 588 new cases, total: 762 939
Day 7: 762 939 x 0,25 = 190 735 new cases, total: 953 674

If 1% die, that means 9537 people. If 2% die, its 19 073 of the infected from just this short period of time.

And even if these arent any "best scenario" numbers it isnt the worst scenario either.

Every day matters now. Surreal.
 


As said in a previous post this thing is serious and many have joked and probably think it's all overblown....in certain ways it probably is but no one knows and I don't fancy taking a chance with it at 53 I am more at risk than say a healthy child teenager and 20 odd year olds. For the government to have daily updates buying up as much medical equipment as they can etc etc its serious!!
 






Petunia

Living the dream
NSC Patron
May 8, 2013
2,308
Downunder
Why is it that all these periodical and possibly fatal viruses seem to originate in China ?

Are you still flying to the UK?

My friend was due to arrive this week but she’s cancelled:(:down:
 


OzMike

Well-known member
Oct 2, 2006
13,280
Perth Australia
Are you still flying to the UK?

My friend was due to arrive this week but she’s cancelled:(:down:

I don't know what to do to be honest, the UK have no restrictions as yet and I am prepared to isolate for 14 days on my return.
The flights as yet have not been cancelled, as Qatar are still going into Gatwick, I check the Gatwick schedule daily.
If the flights are cancelled or they decide to change their policy then I would get refunded I suppose.
Thinking of delaying by a year and having a 60th birthday return at 61 !
It would be disappointing visiting a country where everything is closed and I was really hoping to get my National Trust fix and take in a game or two.
It wouldn't stop me from visiting folks I haven't seen for 15 years though.
 


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