Main Coronavirus / Covid-19 Discussion Thread

[rogersix]

How long it stays on surfaces, that's what I'm not sure about.

so have you been on self imposed lock down since you first heard of this pestilence?

 

[Deleted member 22389]

so have you been on self imposed lock down since you first heard of this pestilence?

I'm certainly thinking about where I go now and also remembering to wash my hands before and after.

 

[Solid at the back]

France have approx 4x the number of positive cases and deaths compared with the UK.

You're missing very key words: confirmed cases.
Just last week Spain backdated a death from CV to Feb 13th.
When we do similar testing, that we should have been doing all along, we will have the same results. In reality our 'real' numbers will be much closer to our neighbours.

 

[Deleted member 22389]

Heard various numbers, 9~ hours seems the most consistent.

Thanks for the info

 

[Hugo Rune]

Hundreds of UK scientists are now coming out against the government’s strategy:

https://www.google.co.uk/amp/s/www.bbc.co.uk/news/amp/science-environment-51892402

This is in addition to the World Health Organisation apparently:

“...But Anthony Costello, a paediatrician and former World Health Organization director, said that the UK government was out of kilter with other countries in looking to herd immunity as the answer. It could conflict with WHO policy, he said in a series of Twitter posts, which is to contain the virus by tracking and tracing all cases. He quoted Dr Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus, the WHO director general, who said: “The idea that countries should shift from containment to mitigation is wrong and dangerous.”
Herd immunity might not even last, Costello said. “Does coronavirus cause strong herd immunity or is it like flu where new strains emerge each year needing repeat vaccines? We have much to learn about Co-V immune responses.” Vaccines, he said, were a much safer way of bringing it about”

https://www.google.co.uk/amp/s/amp....munity-will-the-uks-coronavirus-strategy-work

Seems like the government’s plan is marmite amongst the Scientific community.

 

[Bold Seagull]

In other words you know as much as the rest of us, another bluffer then

Just without my head in the sand...

 

[peterward]

Good article on the 'herd immunity' policy that the government apparently wants to pursue:

https://theconversation.com/amp/coronavirus-can-herd-immunity-really-protect-us-133583

This is the quote that is shuddering:

"Achieving herd immunity would require well over 47 million people to be infected in the UK. Current estimates are that COVID-19 has a 2.3% case-fatality rate and a 19% rate of severe disease. This means that achieving herd immunity to COVID-19 in the UK could result in the deaths of more than a million people with a further eight million severe infections requiring critical care."

WTF are these 2 bellends thinking? A vaccine maybe found sooner, a hot summer may help it's spread. Is a prime minister going along with a strategy to accept a million deaths, when the whole world does the opposite?

FFS Listen to the open letter today from 229 scientists saying this is the wrong play. It's madness and these 2 advisors are proving the line between genius and madness is small. Sir Patrick and Prof Whittey are deluding themselves.. Get rid of them fronting the response before they get rid of a million Brits.

 

[Triggaaar]

Have you been to an NHS hospital lately?

No, but Mrs T works for them.

There is no spare capacity for this virus

That's not the point. You don't go 'oh **** it, he's got no family so who cares'.

 

[Deleted member 22389]

You're missing very key words: confirmed cases.
Just last week Spain backdated a death from CV to Feb 13th.
When we do similar testing, that we should have been doing all along, we will have the same results. In reality our 'real' numbers will be much closer to our neighbours.

I think your right. Just make your own plan of action now.

 

[beorhthelm]

WTF are these 2 bellends thinking? A vaccine maybe found sooner, a hot summer may help it's spread. Is a prime minister going along with a strategy to accept a million deaths, when the whole world does the opposite?

the world is not doing the opposite. we are not equiped or inclinded to go full Chinese lockdown - are you going to accept no movement and an army drop off noodles to the street every couple of weeks? the rest of Europe is hoping for a longer delay through less contacts will give the same outcome as us.

 

[Triggaaar]

I really don't think so. My analogy may not be easy to understand, but I think it's what the government are trying to do. As does someone who knows more than me about this - and he even talks about a tap!

[tweet]1238518371651649538[/tweet]

1. The govt strategy on #Coronavirus is more refined than those used in other countries and potentially very effective. But it is also riskier and based on a number of assumptions. They need to be correct, and the measures they introduce need to work when they are supposed to.

2. This all assumes I'm correct in what I think the govt are doing and why. I could be wrong - and wouldn't be surprised. But it looks to me like. . .

3. A UK starting assumption is that a high number of the population will inevitably get infected whatever is done – up to 80%. As you can’t stop it, so it is best to manage it.

There are limited health resources so the aim is to manage the flow of the seriously ill to these.

4. The Italian model the aims to stop infection. The UKs wants infection BUT of particular categories of people. The aim of the UK is to have as many lower risk people infected as possible. Immune people cannot infect others; the more there are the lower the risk of infection

5. That's herd immunity.
Based on this idea, at the moment the govt wants people to get infected, up until hospitals begin to reach capacity. At that they want to reduce, but not stop infection rate. Ideally they balance it so the numbers entering hospital = the number leaving.

6. That balance is the big risk.

All the time people are being treated, other mildly ill people are recovering and the population grows a higher percent of immune people who can’t infect. They can also return to work and keep things going normally - and go to the pubs.

7.The risk is being able to accurately manage infection flow relative to health case resources. Data on infection rates needs to be accurate, the measures they introduce need to work and at the time they want them to and to the degree they want, or the system is overwhelmed.

8. Schools: Kids generally won’t get very ill, so the govt can use them as a tool to infect others when you want to increase infection. When you need to slow infection, that tap can be turned off – at that point they close the schools. Politically risky for them to say this.

9. The same for large scale events - stop them when you want to slow infection rates; turn another tap off. This means schools etc are closed for a shorter period and disruption generally is therefore for a shorter period, AND with a growing immune population. This is sustainable

10. After a while most of the population is immune, the seriously ill have all received treatment and the country is resistant. The more vulnerable are then less at risk. This is the end state the govt is aiming for and could achieve.

I have an issue with this strategy. I can see the basic logic is not having measures too drastic until close to a time when the health services are on the limit, but I do no accept the notion that we need to be in a hurry to get to that point.

So while I accept that we keep the economy going, and we leave schools open, I do not agree that we should still have mass gatherings. We can get to the point described above (health service at the limit) and then close schools etc, but it would be even better if we didn't get to that point until a bit later - until we're a bit closer to summer, until we're a bit closer to a vaccine, until we've got a few more people already recovered and no longer spreading the virus.

The strategy hypothesised also includes allowing healthy people getting the virus, but not the vulnerable. How are we to achieve that?

 

[dazzer6666]

No, but Mrs T works for them.
That's not the point. You don't go 'oh **** it, he's got no family so who cares'.

Precisely what the nurses are saying.........

 

[Bold Seagull]

Hundreds of UK scientists are now coming out against the government’s strategy:

https://www.google.co.uk/amp/s/www.bbc.co.uk/news/amp/science-environment-51892402

This is in addition to the World Health Organisation apparently:

“...But Anthony Costello, a paediatrician and former World Health Organization director, said that the UK government was out of kilter with other countries in looking to herd immunity as the answer. It could conflict with WHO policy, he said in a series of Twitter posts, which is to contain the virus by tracking and tracing all cases. He quoted Dr Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus, the WHO director general, who said: “The idea that countries should shift from containment to mitigation is wrong and dangerous.”
Herd immunity might not even last, Costello said. “Does coronavirus cause strong herd immunity or is it like flu where new strains emerge each year needing repeat vaccines? We have much to learn about Co-V immune responses.” Vaccines, he said, were a much safer way of bringing it about”

https://www.google.co.uk/amp/s/amp....munity-will-the-uks-coronavirus-strategy-work

Seems like the government’s plan is marmite amongst the Scientific community.

I think the reason the WHO haven’t taken an official stance is that there is not much evidence containment is working, and where containment has slowed or reduced numbers, the risk is a twin peak or second epidemic.

 

[Triggaaar]

Precisely what the nurses are saying.........

So you're saying that anyone who can be discharged, is being discharged, unless they don't have a family, in which case they're being discharged even if they can't be?

 

[Sorrel]

While I understand what the medial advisors to the government are trying to do, I suspect it will shortly become untenable to continue with this strategy. It might be better to go along with the other countries in the area and have a more complete lockdown: if we all do it at the same time it will probably be more successful.

Then the problem of how to stop the lockdown will be shared, at least - and when, as we probably will - we go through all of this again in around six months, we will all at least know the drill.

 

[Triggaaar]

I’ve had a mild fever for the last 2/3 days (clammy legs in bed at night), today I’ve had aching legs while driving - pretty rare for me. And now a cough.

I probably haven’t, but still thinking whether I should go into work on Monday or not.

So you've got a new fever and cough. No, of course you shouldn't go in. You should self-isolate now. That's what the government advice is. Why have you ignored their advice and not self-isolated already?

 

[Nobby]

No, but Mrs T works for them.
That's not the point. You don't go 'oh **** it, he's got no family so who cares'.

Look I’m on your side

The Tories have contributed to this shambles by not investing over the last ten years

And now the only scientist who thinks our strategy is correct is the Chief Scientist under pressure from a bunch of right wing nut jobs

We’re all going to be an ex Albion fan sometime, I just might be sooner because of BJ and his ilk

Pisses me off a bit to be honest and full respect to your other half - heroes the lot of them

 

[herecomesaregular]

So you've got a new fever and cough. No, of course you shouldn't go in. You should self-isolate now. That's what the government advice is. Why have you ignored their advice and not self-isolated already?

And taken his temperature perhaps?

 

[dazzer6666]

So you're saying that anyone who can be discharged, is being discharged, unless they don't have a family, in which case they're being discharged even if they can't be?

Yes. It’s wrong but it’s happening.

 

[Eeyore]

I miss BREXIT