Main Coronavirus / Covid-19 Discussion Thread

[paulfuzz]

https://www.corbettreport.com/coron...n=Feed:+CorbettReportRSS+(The+Corbett+Report)

 

[Soylent Blue]

The best we'll ever get is an estimate, and that won't be confirmed until the end of the cycle for the virus. The mortality rate for normal flu is something like 0.1%. The indications are that Coronavirus kills many more than that. Doctors in their 30s don't usually die from the normal flu.

You are confusing the mortality rate with the fatality rate. The former is the amount of people who die from it in the UK, the fatality rate(which you posted for flu but called the mortality rate) is the number of people who catch it go on to die. The Infection rate is estimated to be between 20% and 80% of the population, this is a the high end for highly transative and densley populated areas.

So far the mortality rate I am guessing is about 5%, if 50% of the population catch it the the mortality rate will be 2.5%. it is more sensible to focus on the Fatality rate for various reasons.

So far Fatality rates are 3.4 % globally, and for china 3.6%, with Hubei at 4.1%.

https://covid19info.live/

These numbers are likely to rise as the disease takes up to 3 weeks to kill and up to 27 days incubation, so time series data need to be analysed. this will only be accurate after about 7 weeks from when it took of outside china. IE towards the end of March.

As fatality rates are skewed to the old, Western top heavy demographic countries are likely to see higher rates ceteris paribus.

Therefor Boomer Plague is more accurate than Airborne Bat AIDS which ive heard it called among other interesting and odd names.

 

[dingodan]

12 more in the UK.

Up to 35 now.

Also 3 players from Juventus recent opponents Pianese. Juventus halted all training.

 

[jessiejames]

12 more in the UK.

Up to 35 now.

Also 3 players from Juventus recent opponents Pianese. Juventus halted all training.

What's our excuse

 

[bluenitsuj]

All the while we let anyone return from virus hot spots, and then disappear into society, the numbers will shoot up. Makes you wonder why they made a fuss over the special flights bringing uk citizens back recently.

 

[Uncle C]

Sounds like the virus has been bouncing around in Northern Italy AND mutating since late January. Not good, the Genie may be out bottle now, stock markets in free-fall too.... economic catastrophe too.

Where is a credible reference to it mutating?

 

[dingodan]

Where is a credible reference to it mutating?

Doc on BBC News just said it's mutating, but that's what Viruses do. Mutations are also not neccessarily bad, although they could be. Mutuations could make it less infectious. They could also make it more dangerous.

I know it's extreme, but there is a big part of me which wishes they (had or) would just halt international travel. We wouldn't have any cases now, certainly not as many, if that had been done. Once it starts spreading within the UK there won't be much of anything we can do, especially since people transmit while asymptomatic.

Halting international travel would have a massive impact and cause many problems, but I can't help feeling that those problems will end up being small compared to the problems we are going to face now that it has arrived and settled here.

 

[Wozza]

Atalanta fans having their temperature checked before being allowed into Lecce’s stadium.

The Amex in a few weeks' time?!

 

[dingodan]

View attachment 120627

Atalanta fans having their temperature checked before being allowed into Lecce’s stadium.

The Amex in a few weeks' time?!

Tbh the season might be over already.

 

[Solid at the back]

The season is over already. Look at Italy, we are one week behind them.

 

[peterward]

Where is a credible reference to it mutating?

I think they're right. I read a couple of days ago, that Italian scientists in Rome were one of first to isolate the original Wuhan virus (and it's genetic code) from one of the first infected in Italy (who'd come from China) and in last few days a lab in Milan has isolated the genetic structure of few patients recently infected in northern Italy and there's differences. But that shouldn't surprise anyone RNA viruses all do that. I dug out this, it sort of alludes a lot more basically to what I read 2 days ago. I had read something more in depth and detailed on some science website, I can't find now whilst searching though. https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/feb/28/coronavirus-may-have-been-in-italy-for-weeks-before-it-was-detected

 

[Algernon]

What's our excuse

Our guys have caught Languid-11

 

[peterward]

Get some Dettol anti bac handwash, it's allegedly the best stuff..... Before that sells out. Still not major here yet, but direction of travel isn't looking great

 

[WATFORD zero]

This is getting bad now. We were going to go skiing third week of March, Italy is now out, but I'm wondering about Austria. Trouble is, Mrs Wz is now getting worried about getting caught up in all this.

Not the virus, but all the quarantine/home isolation stuff

 

[peterward]

This is getting bad now. We were going to go skiing third week of March, Italy is now out, but I'm wondering about Austria. Trouble is, Mrs Wz is now getting worried about getting caught up in all this.

Not the virus, but all the quarantine/home isolation stuff

I was in Austria last week. Not so sure it's the ski resort that would put you at bigger risk, but the airport's and flights. I took alcohol swabs and wiped everywhere around seats on aircraft!

Not sure it's been so prevelent in Norway, Sweden or even Bulgaria yet (but they're not a patch on Austria). Could you drive somewhere? Thus cutting out airport and aircraft

 

[WATFORD zero]

I was in Austria last week. Not so sure it's the ski resort that would put you at bigger risk, but the airport's and flights. I took alcohol swabs and wiped everywhere around seats on aircraft!

Not sure it's been so prevelent in Norway, Sweden or even Bulgaria yet (but they're not a patch on Austria). Could you drive somewhere? Thus cutting out airport and aircraft

Drove to Scotland (or 'home' as Mrs Wz know it) for a ski holiday once. Unmitigated disaster. (Also driven to France and Italy for skiing but not for some years). Trouble is I'm not that young and that is a looong drive these days. I'm far more of a flight/transfer and fully catered/luxury hotel type these days.

Tend to book last minute so will see what the situation is in Austria the week before.

 

[TomandJerry]

Twelve more patients in England have tested positive for coronavirus, taking the total number of UK cases to 35.

Three patients were close contacts of a known case which was transmitted in the UK, chief medical officer Prof Chris Whitty said.

One person from Essex had "no relevant travel" and it was unclear how they had contracted the virus.

Out of the remaining eight cases, six had recently returned from Italy and two had been to Iran.

Prof Whitty said these patients were from London, West Yorkshire, Greater Manchester, Hertfordshire and Gloucestershire.



Sent from my Pixel 3a using Tapatalk

 

[The Antikythera Mechanism]

To get things in perspective, if 80,000 in China have tested positive, and 3000 have died, out of a population of 1,600,000,000 that represents 0.005% of the population. Compare this to the population of the UK of 65,000,000 and we could have 3,250 positive cases and 122 deaths. However the figures are unlikely to be this high as the original outbreak in China was uncontrolled for a month and our health services and hygiene are far better.

 

[penny's harmonica]

To get things in perspective, if 80,000 in China have tested positive, and 3000 have died, out of a population of 1,600,000,000 that represents 0.005% of the population. Compare this to the population of the UK of 65,000,000 and we could have 3,250 positive cases and 122 deaths. However the figures are unlikely to be this high as the original outbreak in China was uncontrolled for a month and our health services and hygiene are far better.

Nobody wants to hear that kind of sh1t

 

[vegster]

Where is a credible reference to it mutating?

Here's the link, seemed credible to me.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2...een-in-italy-for-weeks-before-it-was-detected