Main Coronavirus / Covid-19 Discussion Thread

[W.C.]

We've seen this cycle from the denial-ists (I'm not suggesting you are one) pretty much consistently over the last 18 months or so...

Scenario: Cases rise.
Denial-ists: Cases don't matter, hospitalisations and deaths are low.

Scenario: Hospitalisations and deaths rise (as they always do after cases go up)
Denial-ists: That's OK - cases aren't going up any more.

Rinse and repeat.

Hospitalisations and deaths are lagging indicators, so if they are falling it almost certainly means that cases were falling in the recent past. And, yes, on this occasion, cases were falling from around October 21st to November 7th, give or take, so we'd absolutely expect those requiring medical treatment to be on a decline right now.

Since then cases are on the march again. I've seen it suggested that half-term acted as a bit of a circuit breaker, cooling things off a little, but things are on the rise again. The last five days have seen reported cases being higher than the corresponding day in the preceding week, so the rolling seven-day average has begun ticking up again.

Give it a week to ten days and these will start "converting" to hospitalisations again, and a while after that, to deaths. Having received a positive PCR result today, I'm hoping I'm not one of them.

The good news of course is that the "conversion" ratio of cases > bad outcomes is far lower than it used to be, cos vaccines, and we hope that continues to get driven down as we keep pumping the vital booster shots into arms, given dramatically better protection to recipients.

Agreed. At the risk of repeating myself, looking in from the outside, it is utterly bizarre seeing people in the UK talking about being in good shape or similar.

Hope you are on the mend very soon.

 

[sparkie]

I am no expert (apart from occasionally a self appointed one) but my understanding is the longer Covid is out in the wild the weaker it will become. For example the Spanish Flu never actually went anywhere and it's descendants are still around today.

Upshot of this is a lot of us will probably get it in the next few years, but there is a strong argument for delaying that moment as long as possible via vaccinations and other precautions.

I have been to matches with [MENTION=6886]Bozza[/MENTION] and he took as many precautions as anyone, such as going straight to his seat and not having a drink on the concourse. I am not sure there is anything much parents of children at school can do to avoid it.

There is also a theory that the Russian Flu of 1889-91 was actually Coronavirus - which shows these pandemics do tend to get weaker over time.

 

[Harry Wilson's tackle]

Given we’re to understand the vast majority of those ending up in hospital are unvaccinated………how do we deal with that ? Genuinely struggling to think of an answer - putting restrictions on 80%+ of the population who are broadly safe to protect the remainder (now there is protection - it was the right thing to do when we didn’t have a vaccine to protect the vulnerable) just doesn’t feel right.

Indeed.

I heard yesterday that over 90% of pregnant women hospitalized with Covid are unvaccinated. Many have died.

Austria has just announced that those who aren't vaccinated must stay at home for the next ten days.

****em, I say.

I would add the MMR anti-vaxxers to the list. Unless you have a medical reason to not be vaccinated.....

 

[Harry Wilson's tackle]

But although cases are high, hospitalisations and deaths are falling, and surly that’s the metric we should be basing any further measures on ?

You are replying to a spoof account (one that received a ban recently for spoofery on a serious topic).

 

[dazzer6666]

Indeed.

I heard yesterday that over 90% of pregnant women hospitalized with Covid are unvaccinated. Many have died.

Austria has just announced that those who aren't vaccinated must stay at home for the next ten days.

****em, I say.

I would add the MMR anti-vaxxers to the list. Unless you have a medical reason to not be vaccinated.....

That’s shocking re pregnant women. Presumably Karen off Facebook or someone on Mumsnet told them the vaccine was dangerous to unborn children.

The Austria approach is interesting - imagine the furore if that gets tried here. Lockdown for the unvaxxed to protect the NHS and to allow the majority to go about their normal lives.

 

[dazzer6666]

has anyone booked a Day 2 (return from EU travel) test in a centre in Brighton/Sussex ? Can't have test kit send through post

Click and collect will be cheaper………about the same price as one posted to you, whereas an onsite test will be double? I’ve used ExpressTest at Gatwick a few times now (PCR and LFT), excellent service and good value compared to a lot of others.

https://www.expresstest.co.uk/book-...accinated-arrivals-antigen-lateral-flow-test/

 

[Fungus]

You are replying to a spoof account (one that received a ban recently for spoofery on a serious topic).

I wasn't aware of his ban, so don't know what it was for. Didn't the mods used to announce bans and reasons somewhere on NSC? [MENTION=6886]Bozza[/MENTION]?

 

[Harry Wilson's tackle]

That’s shocking re pregnant women. Presumably Karen off Facebook or someone on Mumsnet told them the vaccine was dangerous to unborn children.

The Austria approach is interesting - imagine the furore if that gets tried here. Lockdown for the unvaxxed to protect the NHS and to allow the majority to go about their normal lives.

Yep. First point, I'm sure you're right.

Second point, I imagine it would be impossible here because we have no way of checking whether individuals have been vaccinated without a 'receipt', and people would simply disregard the requirement. There is an argument for ID cards with chips that can be updated with vaccination details etc., but this also would be strongly resisted in the UK. We love our freedom here. Freedom to catch Covid, freedom to block the NHS.

 

[dazzer6666]

Yep. First point, I'm sure you're right.

Second point, I imagine it would be impossible here because we have no way of checking whether individuals have been vaccinated without a 'receipt', and people would simply disregard the requirement. There is an argument for ID cards with chips that can be updated with vaccination details etc., but this also would be strongly resisted in the UK. We love our freedom here. Freedom to catch Covid, freedom to block the NHS.

Yep…….’I know my rights’

 

[Harry Wilson's tackle]

I wasn't aware of his ban, so don't know what it was for. Didn't the mods used to announce bans and reasons somewhere on NSC? [MENTION=6886]Bozza[/MENTION]?

https://nortr3nixy.nimpr.uk/showthread.php?389137-Crodonilson

 

[Bozza]

Sorry if ‘certainly’ wasn’t clear enough

Jeez...

The good news of course is that the "conversion" ratio of cases > bad outcomes is far lower than it used to be, cos vaccines, and we hope that continues to get driven down as we keep pumping the vital booster shots into arms, given dramatically better protection to recipients.

 

[dazzer6666]

Jeez...

I’ll be sure to tug my forelock and praise all your posts in future boss.

 

[Bozza]

Agreed. At the risk of repeating myself, looking in from the outside, it is utterly bizarre seeing people in the UK talking about being in good shape or similar.

...and "manageable".

The reports coming from our GPs, ambulance services and hospitals suggest things are far more manageable right now, and the winter season hasn't even started yet.

If you don't have to call upon the health service, life for most people feels pretty normal I think, which is great. Maybe I'm unusual in that I can't just pretend the health service pressures aren't happening because I'm Alright, Jack (current infection aside).

 

[Bozza]

I’ll be sure to tug my forelock and praise all your posts in future boss.

I'm not sure there's any need for that snide sarcy response, but I don't know I could have been much clearer on my acknowledgement of the benefits the vaccine has given us.

 

[LamieRobertson]

Well it’s a nice sunny day out …perhaps we can try our best to enjoy it ..instead of

 

[Fungus]

https://nortr3nixy.nimpr.uk/showthread.php?389137-Crodonilson

Thanks, got it now. Looking in the wrong place.

 

[Billy the Fish]

Yep. First point, I'm sure you're right.

Second point, I imagine it would be impossible here because we have no way of checking whether individuals have been vaccinated without a 'receipt', and people would simply disregard the requirement. There is an argument for ID cards with chips that can be updated with vaccination details etc., but this also would be strongly resisted in the UK. We love our freedom here. Freedom to catch Covid, freedom to block the NHS.

It's a dangerous precedent to set. This time you're happy to accept it because it's something you agree with, in the future that power is very open to abuse. There's no going back once we're all chipped.

 

[W.C.]

...and "manageable".

The reports coming from our GPs, ambulance services and hospitals suggest things are far more manageable right now, and the winter season hasn't even started yet.

If you don't have to call upon the health service, life for most people feels pretty normal I think, which is great. Maybe I'm unusual in that I can't just pretend the health service pressures aren't happening because I'm Alright, Jack (current infection aside).

Assume you meant 'far from'? Again, looking in from outside, when I read what health professionals are dealing with it really stands in stark contrast to what a lot of people are saying, including people in charge.
I mostly try not to come on these threads to avoid getting banned for saying what I really think about some posters.

 

[Swansman]

That’s shocking re pregnant women. Presumably Karen off Facebook or someone on Mumsnet told them the vaccine was dangerous to unborn children.

The Austria approach is interesting - imagine the furore if that gets tried here. Lockdown for the unvaxxed to protect the NHS and to allow the majority to go about their normal lives.

I think you will see quite a bit of furore in Austria as well if it is anything other than a very short temporary thing. Any longer than the 10 initial days and there will be chaos.

I imagine it would be impossible here because we have no way of checking whether individuals have been vaccinated without a 'receipt', and people would simply disregard the requirement. There is an argument for ID cards with chips that can be updated with vaccination details etc., but this also would be strongly resisted in the UK. We love our freedom here. Freedom to catch Covid, freedom to block the NHS.

Again... read some history and you'll find out why people do not want this kind of surveillance. Imagine Stalin or Hitler with access to information on everyones ethnicity, where they currently are and so forth. That there will never again be any rulers of that sort is very unlikely considering how many times it has happened in the past.

I'd also argue that a solution like that would likely be a lot less resisted than in a lot of other countries. UK is by far the most surveillance heavy and censored country in Western Europe.

 

[dazzer6666]

Scepticism is key component of a healthy society, even when the sceptics are wrong.

Governments can clamp down on sceptics through erosion of free speech, authoritarian measures, or presenting facts through education.

It seems you would prefer our government to go down the authoritarian route. I have no doubt it would be effective, just as erosion of free speech through censorship would likely be.

But yes, we do value our freedom in this country, and that's something to be proud of. The government has been allowed to exercise some new and dangerous powers during this pandemic. I think some people should really be careful what they wish for.

Some decent education could start with publishing clear statistics about the prevalence of vaccinated/unvaccinated going into hospital.........