Behind a paywall so can't read it but seems rather convenient that this comes out so that Johnson can now legitimately sack him despite evidence suggesting that he has, for a long time, considered Hancock to be effing hopeless!!
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Main Coronavirus / Covid-19 Discussion Thread
- Thread starter GingerBeerMan
- Start date
Behind a paywall so can't read it but seems rather convenient that this comes out so that Johnson can now legitimately sack him despite evidence suggesting that he has, for a long time, considered Hancock to be effing hopeless!!
LamieRobertson
Not awoke
mod comment: Please stop copying and pasting whole articles from other sites onto nsc. They are copyrighted and your actions could cost nsc thousands of pounds.
Great article on the performance of the modellers - may be paywalled, but the gist is they’re shite
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/20...kdown/?li_source=LI&li_medium=liftigniter-rhr
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/20...kdown/?li_source=LI&li_medium=liftigniter-rhr
Yoda
English & European
Paywalled
but surprisingly also covered slightly by Sky News:https://news.sky.com/story/cautious...g-low-despite-rising-number-of-cases-12338065
I don't know the in's and out of the process that led to it but the government have constantly acted too late and caused worse problems down the road while everyone else from Scientists through to opposition politicians and anyone who worked out what happens when you underestimated Covid-19 was screaming for faster interventions.
By all means go and cherry pick a few predictions that were OTT as we get the pandemic (hopefully) under control but ultimately had the Delta variant been taken more seriously earlier on we would have come out of lockdown yesterday.
The fact we didn't isn't the fault of any University getting their predictions wrong but purely on the government.
By all means go and cherry pick a few predictions that were OTT as we get the pandemic (hopefully) under control but ultimately had the Delta variant been taken more seriously earlier on we would have come out of lockdown yesterday.
The fact we didn't isn't the fault of any University getting their predictions wrong but purely on the government.
beorhthelm
A. Virgo, Football Genius
- Jul 21, 2003
- 36,014
the Delta variant wasnt concidered a variant of concern until May 11th, over two weeks after we red-listed India. Europe red-listed India the same time as we did, there would have been little point red-listing if they didn't, as people would come in via Paris and Schiphol. Sage meeting in late April dont really express any concern about the variant, as there was no firm data.
the trouble with the scientist and politicans* screaming for faster intervention is they were doing so continually the previous year, constantly saying more restriction, more caution. they dont do so on basis of objective analysis of data but on fear of things being worse case.
* except of course those saying do less restrictions because its not fair their town/city is being targeted, even when the affects are worse there.
We locked down fights from India around the same time as most other countries and before others.
It’s not cherry picking to point out just how awful this round of modelling is, one predicted 100k cases for the 21st - there was 10500, that’s not even close to being correct and has underplayed the vaccine massively.
nicko31
Well-known member
We put Pakistan and Bang on our Red list 2nd April, at the same time infection rates were x10 higher in India. Just a few days later 1 in 20 arrivals from India were testing positive, unlike other countries in Europe we have a lot of direct flights from India due to a large ethic Indian population
We finally had India on the red list on April 23, that day there were 345k cases not far off their absolute peak.
Still we mustn't grumble, he's done his best. Who else would have handled this situation better?
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When did the USA put India on its red list?
What numbers did Europe have testing positive and when did they add them on?
How much testing for the variant are those countries doing?
LamieRobertson
Not awoke
According to this article we put Pakistan and Bang on the red list on April 9th
On 9 April:
Pakistan had a seven-day average of 21 cases per million people
Bangladesh had twice as many
India had four times as many
Then there was this
Health Secretary Matt Hancock said these figures depended on how much testing was being done and said "far more" was carried out in India.
He said the decision to add Pakistan and Bangladesh earlier was based on a higher proportion of people arriving in the UK from these countries, testing positive for coronavirus.
"When we put Pakistan and Bangladesh on the red list, positivity among those arriving from those countries was three times higher than it was among those arriving from India," Mr Hancock told Parliament on 17 May.
Figures from NHS Test and Trace do not support that claim.
For the period 25 March to 7 April, the positivity rate from Bangladesh was 3.7%, from India was 5.1% and from Pakistan was 6.2%.
Mr Hancock was asked about this in Parliament on 19 May and said: "The positivity rate in India, on which the decision to put Pakistan but not India on the red list was 1.6% in India and 4.6% in Pakistan, which is three times higher, as I said."
But those are not published figures. He didn't give the date for them and didn't mention Bangladesh this time.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/56801288
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US issued a travel advisory (fewer conditions than red) against going to India on the same day we went red.
Then went to our level 2 weeks later.
No matter which way you slice and dice it practically everyone was calling out for restrictions on travel from India being put in place earlier while restrictions were put in place for Pakistan and Bangladesh a fortnight ahead of India.
The government dropped the ball. Delta variant is now the dominate strain in this country. I suppose it is speculation but it is reasonable to suggest had there been less seeding of the new strain from India then we would have had more vaccinated people before it became a problem.
This caused restrictions to remain in place, not anything a scientist has said.
The government dropped the ball. Delta variant is now the dominate strain in this country. I suppose it is speculation but it is reasonable to suggest had there been less seeding of the new strain from India then we would have had more vaccinated people before it became a problem.
This caused restrictions to remain in place, not anything a scientist has said.
LamieRobertson
Not awoke
nwgull
Well-known member
At the end of that clip (from 2:45) where they transposed the deaths back by a couple of weeks, it showed that if the link was still there then deaths would start to increase around now. This clip was from last night, and unfortunately there were 27 deaths reported today (91 in total over the last 7 days), so the correlation does still seem to be there, albeit at a lower ratio. If it is, then we can expect the 7-day average to increase to about 25 a day by the end of next week.
nicko31
Well-known member
Yeap there's no where to hide. Its important to also remember after dropping the ball they still pressed on with unlocking on 17th May despite not meeting their 4th test
"The Assessment of risks is not changed by a variant of concern"
If we'd kept the Delta variant out I think things would have gone so well we may have axed internal restrictions earlier than 21st June.
These mistakes will now mean restrictions for longer as predicted by many, the jury is still out whether July 19 will happen. Today's cases still 50% up on last Tuesday which ain't great
We better win tonight, many countries in Europe won't want England fans travelling
Weststander
Well-known member
We can argue ad infinitum as to when the Indian Variant knowingly hit these shores. Was it 6 or 10 weeks ago?
But some perspective:
Latest UK figures on Covid hospital patients - 1,316, 223 of whom on ventilators.
On 18 January 2021 - 38,741, 24 January 2021 - 4,077 on ventilators.
What's the rolling 7-day mean of deaths with Covid in the last 28 days, 15 or less?
Months in, there are no catastrophic metrics, hospitals are not filling, people are not dying anywhere near the numbers in earlier waves in the UK and elsewhere.
The vaccination programme, track'n'trace and limited restrictions must simply be working this time around.
But some perspective:
Latest UK figures on Covid hospital patients - 1,316, 223 of whom on ventilators.
On 18 January 2021 - 38,741, 24 January 2021 - 4,077 on ventilators.
What's the rolling 7-day mean of deaths with Covid in the last 28 days, 15 or less?
Months in, there are no catastrophic metrics, hospitals are not filling, people are not dying anywhere near the numbers in earlier waves in the UK and elsewhere.
The vaccination programme, track'n'trace and limited restrictions must simply be working this time around.
dsr-burnley
Well-known member
- Aug 15, 2014
- 2,625
If you are quoting, in bold, in inverted commas, don't you think it's important to quote correctly? You left out the word "fundamentally". If you put the word "fundamentally" back in, then the subject becomes arguable. And I think any argument that the situation had fundamentally changed on 17th May is dubious, because it could still be argued now that things haven't fundamentally changed. They have changed, but whether it's enough to be a fundamental change can still be argued.
- Jan 30, 2008
- 831
Top of the table now, we are the bigliest under Boris
Regards
DF
Regards
DF