Main Coronavirus / Covid-19 Discussion Thread

[Poojah]

According to reports this morning Pat Vallance and Chris Whitty have issued a 'grim outlook' to the government on the Delta variant, seems like we will are likely to be in for a short delay to the next easing of restrictions between a fortnight and a month if all other data continues to be positive.

I mean, the words 'grim outlook' are apparently not yours and have been presumably pulled from the tabloid media somewhere, but let's just go back to November last year. Let's look what was going on then:

- Recent surge in cases amidst the emergence of the Kent variant
- Impending second wave
- Harsh national lockdown
- Bleak, cold, dark weather
- Zero vaccines approved

That was grim. If you'd have told me then that by June this year we'd have virtually everything open (albeit with social distancing measures in place), glorious weather, numerous approved vaccines (including one approved for use in children), 75% of the adult population at least partially vaccinated and almost 50% fully vaccinated, with a removal of nearly all restrictions conservatively expected by late July or early August at the very latest, I'd have absolutely snapped your bloody arm off!

I understand any delay, if deemed sensible in the long-run, will be disruptive to many businesses that have already been hit hard by the pandemic, and I don't want to make light of that. But really since February of last year, this crisis has been absolutely horrendous in so many ways and undoubtedly the toughest collective experience faced by the global population since the end of WWII, something most of us probably never really anticipated going through.

If 21st June becomes August then frankly in the big scheme of things that's not a particularly grim outlook, it's absolutely glorious.

Chin up, old pal...

 

[vegster]

BBC reporting that 8 out of 10 adults now have Covid 19 antibodies.. I think this is a good thing....?

 

[Hotchilidog]

BBC reporting that 8 out of 10 adults now have Covid 19 antibodies.. I think this is a good thing....?

That is great news and surely much closer to the herd immunity levels we were seeking from the outset. We are getting there!

 

[Chicken Run]

No further plans to introduce regional or National lockdowns, fantastic news.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Pro

 

[Kinky Gerbil]

wrong thread

 

[crodonilson]

Prof Neil Ferguson has submitted some updated modelling on behalf of SAGE into the government to help inform the decision of whether to ease all restrictions on 21st June. Seems as though there is not enough data currently to support a full relaxation as there is likely to be a very large number of cases coming down the line and quickly with the doubling time of the new variant less than a week. The key is how much these translate into hospital cases which we should be clearer on in the next 2 weeks but there is still a belief that hospitalisations could be in the same number as the 2nd peak.

https://www.standard.co.uk/news/uk/neil-ferguson-modelling-nhs-england-england-government-b939687.html

 

[darkwolf666]

Prof Neil Ferguson has submitted some updated modelling on behalf of SAGE into the government to help inform the decision of whether to ease all restrictions on 21st June. Seems as though there is not enough data currently to support a full relaxation as there is likely to be a very large number of cases coming down the line and quickly with the doubling time of the new variant less than a week. The key is how much these translate into hospital cases which we should be clearer on in the next 2 weeks but there is still a belief that hospitalisations could be in the same number as the 2nd peak.

https://www.standard.co.uk/news/uk/neil-ferguson-modelling-nhs-england-england-government-b939687.html

Rather having his cake and eating it with this quote though, isn’t he?

Prof Ferguson said work by the Scientific Pandemic Influenza Group on Modelling (Spi-M) is basically “saying there is a risk of a substantial third wave – we cannot be definitive about the scale of that, it could be substantially lower than the second wave, or it could be of the same order of magnitude”.

 

[Richy_Seagull]

Big couple of weeks coming up when it comes to the data. Cases doubling every 9 days or so, so will be down to whether vaccines are effective enough to keep hospitalisations down. Here’s hoping.

 

[crodonilson]

Rather having his cake and eating it with this quote though, isn’t he?

Prof Ferguson said work by the Scientific Pandemic Influenza Group on Modelling (Spi-M) is basically “saying there is a risk of a substantial third wave – we cannot be definitive about the scale of that, it could be substantially lower than the second wave, or it could be of the same order of magnitude”.

Yes he's certainly hedging his vets but it seems there isn't enough information yet on hospitalisations to get a true starting point to model what this third wave is likely to look like. Numbers really started to increase rapidly some two weeks ago now, so these next two weeks you would expect to see hospitalisations on the last two weeks much increased cases so we will see what that looks like but on any case it would be extremely naive to open up without truly being able to understand what effect this wave will have.

 

[crodonilson]

Big couple of weeks coming up when it comes to the data. Cases doubling every 9 days or so, so will be down to whether vaccines are effective enough to keep hospitalisations down. Here’s hoping.

That's due to some old variant still circulating keeping the number down. The Delta variant has a doubling rate of approx 6 days with current restrictions, this would shorten further if we ease restrictions.

 

[beorhthelm]

Rather having his cake and eating it with this quote though, isn’t he?

Prof Ferguson said work by the Scientific Pandemic Influenza Group on Modelling (Spi-M) is basically “saying there is a risk of a substantial third wave – we cannot be definitive about the scale of that, it could be substantially lower than the second wave, or it could be of the same order of magnitude”.

one thing i hope from the eventual inquiry is banning scientist from making public proclaimations on TV, radio and newspapers. stick to peer review publications, where they wouldnt dare make such vague claims. it amounts to "we just dont know", yet pushing the worse case scenario.

meanwhile, the cases are 5 times higher than when we last saw similar rate of hospitalisation.

 

[nicko31]

Big couple of weeks coming up when it comes to the data. Cases doubling every 9 days or so, so will be down to whether vaccines are effective enough to keep hospitalisations down. Here’s hoping.

A big test for the vaccine, 7500 cases today, we'll have the highest infection rate in Europe within 5-7 days if things carry on as they are.

Hospital cases few but its unnerving this wave is happening with our vaccination rate which one of the highest in the world.

 

[darkwolf666]

Yes he's certainly hedging his vets but it seems there isn't enough information yet on hospitalisations to get a true starting point to model what this third wave is likely to look like. Numbers really started to increase rapidly some two weeks ago now, so these next two weeks you would expect to see hospitalisations on the last two weeks much increased cases so we will see what that looks like but on any case it would be extremely naive to open up without truly being able to understand what effect this wave will have.

Agree we shouldn't now be looking at some half arsed relaxation, with tinkering at the edges, which I'm sure will be the case.

Instead, as I think [MENTION=6886]Bozza[/MENTION] suggested, set a target goal for a % of the adult population to be double vaccinated and stick to that...

 

[Kinky Gerbil]

one thing i hope from the eventual inquiry is banning scientist from making public proclaimations on TV, radio and newspapers. stick to peer review publications, where they wouldnt dare make such vague claims. it amounts to "we just dont know", yet pushing the worse case scenario.

meanwhile, the cases are 5 times higher than when we last saw similar rate of hospitalisation.

Whilst still below the best case modelling.

 

[LamieRobertson]

A big test for the vaccine, 7500 cases today, we'll have the highest infection rate in Europe within 5-7 days if things carry on as they are.

Hospital cases few but its unnerving this wave is happening with our vaccination rate which one of the highest in the world.

Isn’t it then a case of delving below the headline figure and analysing those cases...into say age groups.....vaccinated ..not vaccinated etc...before making any judgement

 

[Kinky Gerbil]

[/B]

Isn’t it then a case of delving below the headline figure and analysing those cases...into say age groups.....vaccinated ..not vaccinated etc...before making any judgement

And those who refused the vaccine

 

[crodonilson]

Agree we shouldn't now be looking at some half arsed relaxation, with tinkering at the edges, which I'm sure will be the case.

Instead, as I think [MENTION=6886]Bozza[/MENTION] suggested, set a target goal for a % of the adult population to be double vaccinated and stick to that...

I think the government will agree, now the scientists have raised the risk of 'a substantial third wave, potentially as big as the second wave' the government have to act and a target of lowering infections to x thousand per day and/or getting x% of people (personally I think 75% is the magic number) double vaccinated and three weeks to take effect would be wise.

 

[Yoda]

Interesting update from Tim Spector on the Delta variant where the majority of those reporting symptoms in the younger age groups (below 25) and those with partial/full vaccination were more like a bad cold, rather than the traditional flu like, covid symptoms.

Headache, fever, sore throat and runny nose were the common most four symptoms being reported. ��

 

[darkwolf666]

I think the government will agree, now the scientists have raised the risk of 'a substantial third wave, potentially as big as the second wave' the government have to act and a target of lowering infections to x thousand per day and/or getting x% of people (personally I think 75% is the magic number) double vaccinated and three weeks to take effect would be wise.

While we are largely singing from the same hymn sheet regarding delaying June 21st relaxation, I can’t see how you can set a target for case numbers. Case numbers are largely meaningless unless they equate to a certain percentage of hospitalisations and deaths.

As an extreme example (while unlikely), you could have a million cases, with 10 hospitalisations and 1 death, the cases in this example would look disastrous, but wouldn’t be backed up by the seriousness. That is the key and the bit the government are currently struggling with due to lack of meaningful data.

Delay the date, go for a % of fully protected, while at the same time collecting the data to prove and convince!

 

[crodonilson]

While we are largely singing from the same hymn sheet regarding delaying June 21st relaxation, I can’t see how you can set a target for case numbers. Case numbers are largely meaningless unless they equate to a certain percentage of hospitalisations and deaths.

As an extreme example (while unlikely), you could have a million cases, with 10 hospitalisations and 1 death, the cases in this example would look disastrous, but wouldn’t be backed up by the seriousness. That is the key and the bit the government are currently struggling with due to lack of meaningful data.

Delay the date, go for a % of fully protected, while at the same time collecting the data to prove and convince!

I think inevitably really, really high cases numbers, no matter that the double vaccine is highly effective will inevitably lead to some hospitalisations. A small proportion of a really hugh number will still be quite a big number.