Main Coronavirus / Covid-19 Discussion Thread

[Albion Dan]

Well this won’t do. The NHS failing to support the narrative to keep us in perpetual restriction.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-57367849

 

[atomised]

This Tory government will spin some loosening of measures on 21st to save face but we all know it will not and can not be a full loosening of restrictions. I'd imagine it will include being able to order drinks at the bar in a pub and allowing 3 households to meet indoors but the rule of 6, capacity limits, face masks and social distancing will remain for the foreseeable future.

And so the death of the hospitality industry and of the arts is successfully achieved to much joy from those desperate for that particular outcome.
I've spent 2 of the last 3 weekends at events for 2000 people travelling from all over the country. The local Brighton bus company have clearly decided all front facing seats are available for use with no need to avoid other households (source. DM on twitter stating that capacities had increased on 17th may with no need for distancing)
Today I've spent at a zoo and it was wonderful. Happy people enjoying life. If there is an intent to keep this going beyond the 21st it appears that horse has bolted

 

[atomised]

Well this won’t do. The NHS failing to support the narrative to keep us in perpetual restriction.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-57367849

Oh dear, wrong narrative right there, someone's for it Monday morning

 

[crodonilson]

And so the death of the hospitality industry and of the arts is successfully achieved to much joy from those desperate for that particular outcome.
I've spent 2 of the last 3 weekends at events for 2000 people travelling from all over the country. The local Brighton bus company have clearly decided all front facing seats are available for use with no need to avoid other households (source. DM on twitter stating that capacities had increased on 17th may with no need for distancing)
Today I've spent at a zoo and it was wonderful. Happy people enjoying life. If there is an intent to keep this going beyond the 21st it appears that horse has bolted

So despite weekly cases doubling despite restrictions already in place we should just open everything up?? Seriously?!

 

[atomised]

So despite weekly cases doubling despite restrictions already in place we should just open everything up?? Seriously?!

Go on. Tell me where exactly I said that or are you just making assumptions and putting words in people's mouths as usual It's fine I will wait.

If as I suspect will be the case you can't find me offering an opinion either way on what the right approach should be I will look forward to your apology. Perhaps direct your anger at say, the bus company as I queried how come social distancing was no longer being strictly adhered to and got that answer.

 

[crodonilson]

Go on. Tell me where exactly I said that or are you just making assumptions and putting words in people's mouths as usual It's fine I will wait

If you didn't and we both agree we just continue with social distancing and other restrictions for some time to come until we are in safe and sensible position to do so then I duly apologise to you sir.

 

[e77]

Why don't all these people coming out with sweeping statements like 'this has to end', 'lockdown zealots' and 'NHS narrative' start actually blaming the people who didn't close the borders to India when everyone was suggesting? At every single stage when a small intervention was needed the government delayed and a bigger intervention was needed later on. Every single time.

If they had done it the spread would have been held up and we would have had a bigger window to vaccinate people and would quite possibly be looking forward to most or all restrictions going on the 21st.

But no, keep on Googling or articles that superficially help your argument and laying into Crodonilson, who although is a touch Private Frazer has actually predicted things much better than the open everything up crew.

 

[Solid at the back]

And so the death of the hospitality industry and of the arts is successfully achieved to much joy from those desperate for that particular outcome.
I've spent 2 of the last 3 weekends at events for 2000 people travelling from all over the country. The local Brighton bus company have clearly decided all front facing seats are available for use with no need to avoid other households (source. DM on twitter stating that capacities had increased on 17th may with no need for distancing)
Today I've spent at a zoo and it was wonderful. Happy people enjoying life. If there is an intent to keep this going beyond the 21st it appears that horse has bolted

Personally I would like to eer on the side of caution. That'll be my decision if the government decide to open up on the 21st, nobody is forcing me to go out and eat inside a restaurant. I'll just decide not to do it until I feel comfortable (I've sat outside in bars and restaurants on numerous occasions since the last relaxations) I think it'll come down to being sensible and personal choice. I know most of my family and friends are nowhere near as anxious and cautious as myself. I can't hide indoors forever.

But if they decide not to open up, let's not exaggerate. It's not the death of the hospitality industry, its survived this long and we're in a much better position than in March 2020. As sad as it is to see business go bust and people losing jobs, others pop up to take their place offering the same opportunities.

 

[dsr-burnley]

So despite weekly cases doubling despite restrictions already in place we should just open everything up?? Seriously?!

Where are you getting your numbers from? Cases in the last 7 days, according to the official daily scoreboard, are 31,395 this week up from 21,469 last week. that's 46%, which not only isn't double, it's not even half as much again.

 

[crodonilson]

Where are you getting your numbers from? Cases in the last 7 days, according to the official daily scoreboard, are 31,395 this week up from 21,469 last week. that's 46%, which not only isn't double, it's not even half as much again.

Even if you want to quote those numbers it's a huge and worrying increase. The INS dsra shows amongst Rand samples cases have nearly doubled in a week and given there's still.dime Kent variant within these numbers given the India variant will over these cases it's likely the doubling rate might actually increase.

 

[darkwolf666]

Where are you getting your numbers from? Cases in the last 7 days, according to the official daily scoreboard, are 31,395 this week up from 21,469 last week. that's 46%, which not only isn't double, it's not even half as much again.

So cases have only gone up FORTY SIX per cent in a week - and you and your cohort continue to deride Crodo for his “negativity”.

What precisely would be a good figure for a weekly increase?

 

[dsr-burnley]

So cases have only gone up FORTY SIX per cent in a week - and you and your cohort continue to deride Crodo for his “negativity”.

What precisely would be a good figure for a weekly increase?

I think you misunderstand my point. I wasn't discussing whether 46% is a good number or not. what I was saying is that if we are to have a sensible discussion on continued restrictions (and I hope we are), we ought to do it based on actual information, not on fictional figures.

What would be the point of crodo saying that weekly cases have doubled (wrong by 54%) and me responding by saying no, cases have not increased at all (wrong by 46%) and getting into an argument about that? It would be meaningless. We could start inventing figures about the number of people in hospital as well, or the number of deaths, or think of a number about anything. It's better to get the facts established first before we discuss what those facts mean.

 

[darkwolf666]

I think you misunderstand my point. I wasn't discussing whether 46% is a good number or not. what I was saying is that if we are to have a sensible discussion on continued restrictions (and I hope we are), we ought to do it based on actual information, not on fictional figures.

What would be the point of crodo saying that weekly cases have doubled (wrong by 54%) and me responding by saying no, cases have not increased at all (wrong by 46%) and getting into an argument about that? It would be meaningless. We could start inventing figures about the number of people in hospital as well, or the number of deaths, or think of a number about anything. It's better to get the facts established first before we discuss what those facts mean.

Ok, fair do’s...

The facts are then that cases have gone up 46% in a week - now it’s your turn, put a positive spin on those numbers!

 

[dsr-burnley]

Even if you want to quote those numbers it's a huge and worrying increase. The INS dsra shows amongst Rand samples cases have nearly doubled in a week and given there's still.dime Kent variant within these numbers given the India variant will over these cases it's likely the doubling rate might actually increase.

The ONS data is an estimate of what the position was as at 26th May, which is now 10 (nearly 11) days ago. It more or less follows the actual data but with timing differences. When the information for 2nd June comes out, which will be in about a week's time, I am fairly sure you will find the increase is lower than the actual data shows; this will reassure you and make you feel a lot more confident.

Always remember that estimated figures from 10 days ago are generally less useful than actual, current data. It does eliminate surge-testing bias, which is a good thing, but it does introduce inaccuracies in that it uses estimates. And of course it's out of date, so you need to be sure when quoting it that you don't imply it's current data.

https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopula.../coronaviruscovid19/latestinsights#infections

Unless of course you're on a completely different set of stats and I have got the wrong end of the stick?

 

[Weststander]

Even if you want to quote those numbers it's a huge and worrying increase. The INS dsra shows amongst Rand samples cases have nearly doubled in a week and given there's still.dime Kent variant within these numbers given the India variant will over these cases it's likely the doubling rate might actually increase.

Except hospital numbers this time in places such as Bolton only reached a third of the levels of waves 1 and 2 and the evidence is now that they’re plateauing very early at those low levels. Whilst morgues never filled at all.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/jun/05/vaccines-have-broken-the-chain-between-covid-and-serious-illness
The Covid-19 vaccine appeared to have “broken the chain” between catching coronavirus and becoming seriously ill, the chief executive of NHS Providers has said.

Chris Hopson said the number of people in hospital with the Covid-19 Delta variant, first detected in India, was not increasing “very significantly”.

He told BBC Breakfast that many of those in hospital in Bolton – which has the highest number of cases of the Delta variant in England – were younger than in previous waves of the pandemic.

It is understood some GPs in Bolton have started offering second doses of the vaccines after 28 days, in the face of pressure not to waste supply.

Some patients were believed to have been contacted by text message to say they were eligible for a second jab after four weeks, rather than the eight to 12-week gap advised by the Joint Committee on Vaccination and Immunisation.

Comments on the NHS Bolton Clinical Commissioning Group Facebook page indicated 16 and 17-year-olds were being offered a vaccine.

Speaking about hospitals, Hopson said on Saturday: “The people who came in this time round were actually a lot younger and were a lot less at risk of very serious complication, less at risk of death, and what that means is that they were less demand on critical care.

“What we think we can start to say now, based on that experience, is that it does look as though the vaccines have broken the chain between catching Covid-19 and potentially being very, very seriously ill and potentially dying. There were very, very few people who have had those double jabs and had been able to have that buildup of protection after those jabs.”

Hopson added that in the most recent phase of the pandemic, the number of people in hospital in Bolton with Covid-19 peaked at 50, compared with 170 in November and 150 in January and February.

 

[Albion Dan]

Except hospital numbers this time in places such as Bolton only reached a third of the levels of waves 1 and 2 and the evidence is now that they’re plateauing very early at those low levels. Whilst morgues never filled at all.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/jun/05/vaccines-have-broken-the-chain-between-covid-and-serious-illness
The Covid-19 vaccine appeared to have “broken the chain” between catching coronavirus and becoming seriously ill, the chief executive of NHS Providers has said.

Chris Hopson said the number of people in hospital with the Covid-19 Delta variant, first detected in India, was not increasing “very significantly”.

He told BBC Breakfast that many of those in hospital in Bolton – which has the highest number of cases of the Delta variant in England – were younger than in previous waves of the pandemic.

It is understood some GPs in Bolton have started offering second doses of the vaccines after 28 days, in the face of pressure not to waste supply.

Some patients were believed to have been contacted by text message to say they were eligible for a second jab after four weeks, rather than the eight to 12-week gap advised by the Joint Committee on Vaccination and Immunisation.

Comments on the NHS Bolton Clinical Commissioning Group Facebook page indicated 16 and 17-year-olds were being offered a vaccine.

Speaking about hospitals, Hopson said on Saturday: “The people who came in this time round were actually a lot younger and were a lot less at risk of very serious complication, less at risk of death, and what that means is that they were less demand on critical care.

“What we think we can start to say now, based on that experience, is that it does look as though the vaccines have broken the chain between catching Covid-19 and potentially being very, very seriously ill and potentially dying. There were very, very few people who have had those double jabs and had been able to have that buildup of protection after those jabs.”

Hopson added that in the most recent phase of the pandemic, the number of people in hospital in Bolton with Covid-19 peaked at 50, compared with 170 in November and 150 in January and February.

If true this is the game changer that means further restrictions are completely unnecessary unless you are a complete and utter fear porn victim scared of your own reflection in the mirror.

 

[dsr-burnley]

Ok, fair do’s...

The facts are then that cases have gone up 46% in a week - now it’s your turn, put a positive spin on those numbers!

1. The evidence suggests that these cases are not rising across the board, they are rising in specific areas with specific reasons why they increase. Namely, areas where vaccine uptake is low, relative poverty is high, and multi-generational families (extended families at that) live together.

2. Hospitalisations are not rising, not yet anyway, and there is no certainty that they will. That's one of the things we can wait for before deciding on restrictions from June 22nd.

3. The majority of people in hospital are people who have not been vaccinated. There is an easy solution for that, and in the communities where vaccination rates have been low, anecdotal evidence suggests that there have been surges in vaccination uptake.

4. A check of the cases map suggests that the increased numbers are not spreading beyond the specific communities I mentioned in point 1. Specifically, areas with lower proportions of multi-generational families and high levels of vaccinations, at least in the north of England where I know where to look, are not getting an increase at present.

 

[darkwolf666]

1. The evidence suggests that these cases are not rising across the board, they are rising in specific areas with specific reasons why they increase. Namely, areas where vaccine uptake is low, relative poverty is high, and multi-generational families (extended families at that) live together.

2. Hospitalisations are not rising, not yet anyway, and there is no certainty that they will. That's one of the things we can wait for before deciding on restrictions from June 22nd.

3. The majority of people in hospital are people who have not been vaccinated. There is an easy solution for that, and in the communities where vaccination rates have been low, anecdotal evidence suggests that there have been surges in vaccination uptake.

4. A check of the cases map suggests that the increased numbers are not spreading beyond the specific communities I mentioned in point 1. Specifically, areas with lower proportions of multi-generational families and high levels of vaccinations, at least in the north of England where I know where to look, are not getting an increase at present.

Nice try. Now let’s see how that pans out, with particular regard to your point 2.

I really hope your sanguine attitude to all this is right, and sincerely trust Crodo’s doom and gloom is just that, doom & gloom - however, in most likelihood I feel it will be somewhere between the 2 - but how many dead will that mean and what’s an acceptable number?

 

[Yoda]

but how many dead will that mean and what’s an acceptable number?

The unfortunate thing is, as/when move into this being endemic in this Country, we will have to find one. Just like we do with influenza.

 

[darkwolf666]

The unfortunate thing is, as/when move into this being endemic in this Country, we will have to find one. Just like we do with influenza.

Agree, but would just like to see everyone be given an equal chance before removing all restrictions.