We also need the figure of how many extra covid deaths there would have been without any lockdown at all.
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Main Coronavirus / Covid-19 Discussion Thread
- Thread starter GingerBeerMan
- Start date
- Jul 10, 2003
- 27,766
Undoubtedly. It's just that to me 60,000 seems a remarkable number of deaths to be attributed to lockdown. As [MENTION=599]beorhthelm[/MENTION] stated 'almost as many non-covid deaths as covid deaths occured' as a result of lockdown, I'm intrigued to know where these figures come from and how they breakdown.
beorhthelm
A. Virgo, Football Genius
- Jul 21, 2003
- 36,015
i didnt say that number. have a look at ONS numbers, "almost as many" is an exaggeration however the data shows thousands of excess deaths not related to covid during the first lockdown.
Months or years to come. I doubt it'll matter too much cos I doubt I'll live to see much of it. Months I can handle but years would be a real struggle
dsr-burnley
Well-known member
- Aug 15, 2014
- 2,625
I suspect, like a lot of the figures bandied about during this crisis, it's a guess. There is very little evidence that the government has paid any thought to assessing the negative sides of lockdown, except possibly re. finances.
This Macmillan report says that about 50,000 fewer people have been diagnosed with cancer this year than last - a drop of 11% since last year. I don't think there is any evidence that the cancer incidence has dropped so dramatically, so I suspect (as they do) that it is people who have cancer but it is not being discovered.
A further 650,000 people have had their treatment for existing cancers affected
How many of them will die? Time will tell, I suppose.
https://www.macmillan.org.uk/assets/forgotten-c-impact-of-covid-19-on-cancer-care.pdf
But what I am concerned about because it seems to be ignored is the effect on old people. Obviously by the time next March comes round about 600,000 people will have died in the normal way of things, most of them old people. If they have spent their last year in misery and loneliness, does it matter to anyone? I haven't seen much sign that it does.
Working people are not too badly off with this lockdown because they still see other people. They get out, they can speak to people at work. Retired people, especially the not-too-agile old, don't speak to people, they don't get out. People with dementia (nearly a million of them) are told in the normal way of things to live their lives as normal, get out, have a routine, meet people, speak to people. Now they are told to sit at home and see nobody - it can't be doing them any good.
I'm not saying what the answer should be - but I am saying the question should be asked. When assessing the lives saved by lockdown, they need also to assess the lives ruined, and see if it's worth continuing and in what form.
dsr-burnley
Well-known member
- Aug 15, 2014
- 2,625
God forbid. Even if the vaccine doesn't stop lockdown, it'll have to stop anyway because this can't go on for years. What would be the point? If you sit in a darkened room and never do anything, you might live longer - but why would you want to?
Had we not had lockdown then the hospitals would have been overrun and there would have been much more non-Covid deaths than has been caused by lockdown due to hospitals having to prioritise who to treat.
There are valid arguments to be had about the detail of the Government's approach but the broad sweep was correct.
There are valid arguments to be had about the detail of the Government's approach but the broad sweep was correct.
Yoda
English & European
About time. The governments covid website now displays the healthcare situation by NHS Trust as well now.
BSUH: https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/det...ton and Sussex University Hospitals NHS Trust
ESHT: https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/det...ust&areaName=East Sussex Healthcare NHS Trust
WSHT: https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/det...Western Sussex Hospitals NHS Foundation Trust
BSUH: https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/det...ton and Sussex University Hospitals NHS Trust
ESHT: https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/det...ust&areaName=East Sussex Healthcare NHS Trust
WSHT: https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/det...Western Sussex Hospitals NHS Foundation Trust
crodonilson
He/Him
I saw a WHO bod on BBC news last week who said it would be years until we get back to normaility, somewhere between 3-10 years was his best guess.
Yoda
English & European
Globally yes, but not individual Countries.
Nobby
Well-known member
- Sep 29, 2007
- 2,892
That’s right.
We’ll be a lot worse off than that, with our current bunch of morons in charge
Mr Banana
Tedious chump
Can't envisage there being much of a recovery before the next crisis hits. We're in an age of pandemics that will only worsen because of environmental destruction. The surprise was that this one wasn't worse, given how many near-misses there had already been.
pastafarian
Well-known member
Because we only get one crack at it………....then its nothing.
Personally, lockdown or not, worst case apocalypse or not, I want to live as long as possible.
Not sure if this link works, but this is just brilliant
https://www.facebook.com/828819017/posts/10160411637154018/
https://www.facebook.com/828819017/posts/10160411637154018/
Solid at the back
Well-known member
Latest figures from my sister are "113 in hospital, 10 on ICU" - I asked what sort of agesre being admitted - "all ages", she says they've got 800 beds, I'm not sure if she means that's just for Covid or if that's the total amount in BSUH.
crodonilson
He/Him
Hopefully to avoid the next covid situation then masks and social distancing become the norm.
pb21
Well-known member
- Apr 23, 2010
- 6,687
That might be a good idea, but maybe a bit OTT?
What would what would ideally be better is that if something did happen in the future, people took things a bit more seriously and weren't such arrogant *****?
dsr-burnley
Well-known member
- Aug 15, 2014
- 2,625
Then by all means find yourself a nuclear bunker and stay there for the rest of your (hopefully long) life. I have no objection at all to that. It's not a life I would choose, but it's a free country. (Or at least, it was once, and I hope it will be again.)
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dsr-burnley
Well-known member
- Aug 15, 2014
- 2,625
But it makes life unbearable, especially for the old. This was my mother's social calendar before social distancing:
Tuesday - lunch with friends
Wednesday - knitting club
Thursday - lunch with friends
Friday - whist and Rummikub
Saturday - coffee morning
Sunday - church
Monday - day off.
With social distancing, none of that is possible. Even if they let you sit in a large well ventilated room together, at 6 feet apart conversation is impossible. A life lived where the only thing to look forward to is the next breath, soon becomes a life where you don't actually want the next breath. If all practical social interaction is stopped, there is for many people no point carrying on.
Johnson really is an idiot.
He’s basically announced there will be a lockdown/travel bans more in line with March in Jan, which means more people will use this window to move around the country.
He’s basically announced there will be a lockdown/travel bans more in line with March in Jan, which means more people will use this window to move around the country.