Main Coronavirus / Covid-19 Discussion Thread

[Bozza]

Right, I didn’t realise the 200 deaths a day was actually mentioned in the very same sentence as the 50,000 cases.

Somewhere, somebody has got their figures wrong then as we haven’t got close to 50,000 recorded cases per day and we are now a fortnight past mid-October. But we have comfortably exceeded 200 deaths three weeks before mid-November.

These guys are making it up as they go along.

Here comes the anti-science anti-expert bullshit again.

 

[Weststander]

Rishi seems to be perceived here as Trump like figure who wouldn’t give a shit about huge numbers of over 60’s or the vulnerable dying from CV19.

I haven’t got that impression from him at all.

 

[LamieRobertson]

You really are unreal...!

How’s the photography going?

 

[Guinness Boy]

Do other illnesses count? Post viral fatigue from other viruses etc? Just wondered...only they might be dearly loved as well.

Count to what?

I'm making the very specific point that Christmas might be a bit shit if you're on a ventilator or facing your first Christmas as long term sick or without Granny, due to Covid.

Are you arguing that we could open up the country to save jobs and no one would die or end up in an ICU due to Covid but there might be a bit of collateral damage due to ME and the common cold?

You've completely lost me.

 

[darkwolf666]

How’s the photography going?

Good thanks, wish I could get out and take some photos, the 20,000 plus I have on my hard drives just isn’t enough to work with!!!

 

[LamieRobertson]

Count to what?

I'm making the very specific point that Christmas might be a bit shit if you're on a ventilator or facing your first Christmas as long term sick or without Granny, due to Covid.

Are you arguing that we could open up the country to save jobs and no one would die or end up in an ICU due to Covid but there might be a bit of collateral damage due to ME and the common cold?

You've completely lost me.

I’m not going to argue with you about anything it would be a total waste of time....my comment was aimed at...tell you what forget it...because that middle sentence is just stupid...and does you no credit at all

 

[LamieRobertson]

Good thanks, wish I could get out and take some photos, the 20,000 plus I have on my hard drives just isn’t enough to work with!!!

...how close are you to countryside? No landscape opportunities? ...thought about documenting current times...something to look back on (hopefully).

 

[LamieRobertson]

Rishi seems to be perceived here as Trump like figure who wouldn’t give a shit about huge numbers of over 60’s or the vulnerable dying from CV19.

I haven’t got that impression from him at all.

I havnt got that impression from him either....but then I seem to have missed the perception that he’s anything like Trump

 

[Poojah]

Covered brilliantly on James O’Brien’s LBC shown this morning. Personal attacks from the nation’s thick/FB easily influenced, began on Vallence and Whitty on 21 September when they warned of a second wave and quantified it with the potential for 200 daily deaths by mid November. That’s their field, they’re experts. The bizarre attacks include some sort of conspiracy theory that Whiity’s secret agenda is to control us. Why? .... no one can give a coherent explanation that’s not a pure fantasy.

Scroll forward just a few weeks and yesterday (using a 7 day rolling average to smooth out weekends), we hit 200.

I’ll be honest here, I don’t like Chris Witty and Patrick Vallance because they say things I don’t like. Trouble is, they tend to have the habit, as you say, of being correct. Sometimes the truth hurts.

To be fair, it doesn’t greatly matter whether the Facebook masses listen to them or not, it’s the government who ought to. Right now it really does feel as though we’re slowly sleepwalking towards the abyss, whistling in the wind as we go.

 

[nicko31]

In the very same briefing they said 200 daily deaths by mid November, we got there this week.

The 50,000 daily new cases was based on the entire country having no restrictions, which was the case on 21 September, bar Leicester. Since then restrictions have been applied to large parts of the country to inhibit the spread i.e. new cases.

50,000 cases per day is still possible by mid-November the way things are going. This week is the half term super spreader event, we should be in Circuit Break now.

 

[Seagull27]

I'm baffled at how many are confused by the simplest of concepts.

Scientist: "This pot of water is currently 25oC. If I heat it for 10 minutes, I predict it will be 80oC."

Scientist: "I don't want it to get that hot. I'll turn the heat off after 5 minutes."

10 minutes later:

Idiot: "The water is only 40oC. You don't have a clue what you're talking about, you're making it up as you go along:

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[TomandJerry]

President Macron has imposed a new nationwide lockdown in France as Covid-19 cases surge.

The new measures echo the eight-week lockdown that France enforced in the spring, when hospitalisations and deaths caused by Covid-19 reached a peak.

Signed documents will once again be needed for people to leave home and moving between regions will no longer be possible. People can only leave the house to buy essential goods, seek medical attention, or use their daily one-hour allocation of exercise.



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[TomandJerry]

France set to have second national lockdown

"President Macron has imposed a new nationwide lockdown in France as Covid-19 cases surge.

The new measures echo the eight-week lockdown that France enforced in the spring, when hospitalisations and deaths caused by Covid-19 reached a peak.

Signed documents will once again be needed for people to leave home and moving between regions will no longer be possible. People can only leave the house to buy essential goods, seek medical attention, or use their daily one-hour allocation of exercise."


How long will it be till we follow?


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[Weststander]

I’ll be honest here, I don’t like Chris Witty and Patrick Vallance because they say things I don’t like. Trouble is, they tend to have the habit, as you say, of being correct. Sometimes the truth hurts.

To be fair, it doesn’t greatly matter whether the Facebook masses listen to them or not, it’s the government who ought too. Right now it really does feel as though we’re slowly sleepwalking towards the abyss, whistling in the wind as we go.

Any government has to strike a balance. Only the murderous dictatorship of China locked everyone at home on Wuhan to beat the virus. True scientists (not FB/Twatter liars) would privately recommend a full lockdown until a vaccine has found, whilst governments have to prevent state, corporate and personal bankruptcy. We have no national fund for a rainy day. Only Norway, Qatar, Brunei and Saudi Arabia have that, probably one or two others. So it’s a balance.

This thread is a great example of the pressures. Folk who’s jobs and homes are on the line if lockdown returns (if they weren’t already). Whilst a poster has a very vulnerable family. I personally saw the mental health of teenagers suffer, unnaturally isolated from mates and the structure of a school day for month after month. We’re social creatures, mental health should never be overlooked.

I think we’ll see increasing restrictions in the UK to see us through this winter.

Complex isn’t it. For every democracy.

 

[darkwolf666]

Try and focus on the numbers rather than the personal comments. These scientists said 50,000 cases in October = 200 deaths in November.

In mid-October we were at 15,000 to 18,000 cases per day. At this rate we’ll be at 500+ deaths a day by mid-November. I don’t particularly know or care whether they’re wrong on cases or deaths, but they’re undeniably wrong on at least one part of the calculation. In fact, they’re not just wrong, they’re miles out.

So you were critical because they appeared to over estimate the number of infections and then critical because they underestimated the deaths. They really can't win, can they.

While this is clearly about science, it is not exact science. The stumbling block in this whole process is human nature, how people react to being told what to do - which at the moment in the UK, is clearly badly!

 

[Guinness Boy]

50,000 cases per day is still possible by mid-November the way things are going. This week is the half term super spreader event, we should be in Circuit Break now.

We're repeatedly told that cases have spiked due to kids going back to school. Now you're claiming that them NOT going to school is a super spreader event.

I agree, this would have been a good week to start a circuit break but because kids would not lose too much of thier education - not because the schools being closed would be a super spreader event.

 

[Weststander]

President Macron has imposed a new nationwide lockdown in France as Covid-19 cases surge.

The new measures echo the eight-week lockdown that France enforced in the spring, when hospitalisations and deaths caused by Covid-19 reached a peak.

Signed documents will once again be needed for people to leave home and moving between regions will no longer be possible. People can only leave the house to buy essential goods, seek medical attention, or use their daily one-hour allocation of exercise.



Sent from my Pixel 3a using Tapatalk

Whilst in Spain and Italy, some people have had enough.

 

[Weststander]

So you were critical because they appeared to over estimate the number of infections and then critical because they underestimated the deaths. They really can't win, can they.

While this is clearly about science, it is not exact science. The stumbling block in this whole process is human nature, how people react to being told what to do - which at the moment in the UK, is clearly badly!

But Whitty and Vallance weren’t wrong.

The 50,000 estimate was based on the UK having no restrictions.

Listening to them, areas entered Tier-3 restrictions etc.

 

[Poojah]

Any government has to strike a balance. Only the murderous dictatorship of China locked everyone at home on Wuhan to beat the virus. True scientists (not FB/Twatter liars) would privately recommend a full lockdown until a vaccine has found, whilst governments have to prevent state, corporate and personal bankruptcy. We have no national fund for a rainy day. Only Norway, Qatar, Brunei and Saudi Arabia have that, probably one or two others. So it’s a balance.

This thread is a great example of the pressures. Folk who’s jobs and homes are on the line if lockdown returns (if they weren’t already). Whilst a poster has a very vulnerable family. I personally saw the mental health of teenagers suffer, unnaturally isolated from mates and the structure of a school day for month after month. We’re social creatures, mental health should never be overlooked.

I think we’ll see increasing restrictions in the UK to see us through this winter.

Complex isn’t it. For every democracy.

Oh, I don’t disagree that it’s a horrible balancing act to oversee and something that must be awful to have responsibility for. It’s just a nagging feeling that we will eventually end up in another national lockdown a la France, only we’ll do it later and softer than other countries, thus requiring it to last longer and have even more damning effects both in terms of death and economically.

Already deaths are well above the level they were at when we had the first lockdown - by any logic given the relative normality in our lives compared to then it’s hard to see anything other than a death toll far, far worse than the first wave. Time will tell.