Main Coronavirus / Covid-19 Discussion Thread

[Weststander]

Try and focus on the numbers rather than the personal comments. These scientists said 50,000 cases in October = 200 deaths in November.

In mid-October we were at 15,000 to 18,000 cases per day. At this rate we’ll be at 500+ deaths a day by mid-November. I don’t particularly know or care whether they’re wrong on cases or deaths, but they’re undeniably wrong on at least one part of the calculation. In fact, they’re not just wrong, they’re miles out.

How silly.

With so many variables such as human nature, the experts made a projection based on circumstances not changing.

A precise forecast is impossible.

 

[Weststander]

Oh, I don’t disagree that it’s a horrible balancing act to oversee and something that must be awful to have responsibility for. It’s just a nagging feeling that we will eventually end up in another national lockdown a la France, only we’ll do it later and softer than other countries, thus requiring it to last longer and have even more damning effects both in terms of death and economically.

Already deaths are well above the level they were at when we had the first lockdown - by any logic given the relative normality in our lives compared to then it’s hard to see anything other than a death toll far, far worse than the first wave. Time will tell.

The number of deaths will be significant. But how to temper the numbers without destroying livelihoods and mental health permanently? Has to be a compromise. Our ‘lockdown’ was just that, we could still spend unlimited hours grocery shopping or exercising, whilst I know many in the construction sector who carried on as before.

 

[Kinky Gerbil]

We're repeatedly told that cases have spiked due to kids going back to school. Now you're claiming that them NOT going to school is a super spreader event.

I agree, this would have been a good week to start a circuit break but because kids would not lose too much of thier education - not because the schools being closed would be a super spreader event.

If we shut down everything should shut down

Schools/supermarkets etc

 

[Billy the Fish]

Blimey, this thread has gone a bit toxic.

I wish everyone would stop all the finger pointing and recriminations.

It's clearly time for everybody to take this more seriously regardless of which category your area is in. It's not rocket science - wash your hands, wear a mask, keep 2 meters apart, don't go near unnecessary crowds.

Look after yourself properly and you greatly reduce the risk of catching and spreading. Stay safe everyone

 

[Motogull]

Blimey, this thread has gone a bit toxic.

I wish everyone would stop all the finger pointing and recriminations.

It's clearly time for everybody to take this more seriously regardless of which category your area is in. It's not rocket science - wash your hands, wear a mask, keep 2 meters apart, don't go near unnecessary crowds.

Look after yourself properly and you greatly reduce the risk of catching and spreading. Stay safe everyone

Yeah, but its nobody's fault. Covid fever / fatigue whatever is taking a toll. We are all different but decent people. I'm struggling a bit but making big efforts not to get mouthy. Not knowing when this might lift is grim to put it mildly.

 

[Guinness Boy]

If we shut down everything should shut down

Schools/supermarkets etc

Well that takes first prize in the "nonsense post of the day" competition.

Supermarkets didn't close in the first lockdown, here or abroad.

How do you propose feeding people?

 

[Billy the Fish]

Already deaths are well above the level they were at when we had the first lockdown - by any logic given the relative normality in our lives compared to then it’s hard to see anything other than a death toll far, far worse than the first wave. Time will tell.

I think you're overlooking some factors here. In January the virus was being spread for a period of time before any restrictions were in place. This time everyone is socially distancing, mask wearing, hand washing, taking precautions, avoiding crowds, avoiding public transport, working from home etc.

 

[darkwolf666]

I don’t know if they underestimated deaths or overestimated cases. Genuinely no idea.

What I’m saying is that if 50,000 cases = 200 deaths a month later, they obviously believe 1 in every 250 cases results in death.

Let’s go back a month to 28 September. That day there were 4,044 cases recorded in the UK. So today we should have reported 16 deaths, right? Oh wait, it was 310.

Today there were 24,701 cases. Does anyone seriously think on 28 November there will only be 99 deaths?

Surely it's not about cases, but about how many of those cases end up in hospital, how many were in hospital on 28th September, and how many have died. Unfortunately we don't have that data, as the government neglected to collate data for recovered patients!

 

[Kinky Gerbil]

Well that takes first prize in the "nonsense post of the day" competition.

Supoermarkets didn't close in the first lockdown, here or abroad.

How do you propose feeding people?

Why should people that work in those areas be put at risk ?

People are happy to push for a lockdown, but still want others to be in harms way to supply them safely indoors.

Online only, min contact with anyone.

People want a lockdown, lets do one properly.

 

[Guinness Boy]

Why should people that work in those areas be put at risk ?

People are happy to push for a lockdown, but still want others to be in harms way to supply them safely indoors.

Online only, min contact with anyone.

People want a lockdown, lets do one properly.

Absolute hatstand. You couldn't book an online slot in lockdown #1. You're literally advocating starving people.

The precise conditions laid out by Germany's "semi-lockdown" as presented by [MENTION=409]Herr Tubthumper[/MENTION] (for that period too - to end November) would do the trick nicely.

But they would affect the travel industry a bit, which is your agenda, isn't it.

 

[Kinky Gerbil]

Absolute hatstand. You couldn't book an online slot in lockdown #1. You're literally advocating starving people.

The precise conditions laid out by Germany's "semi-lockdown" as presented by [MENTION=409]Herr Tubthumper[/MENTION] for that period too - to end November - would do the trick nicely.

But they would affect the travel industry a bit, which is your agenda, isn't it.

Sage are pushing for a full lockdown.

So you are happy for people to put themselves at risk as long as you get what you need?

You are literally suggesting people who are supplying you whilst you sit at home are not worth looking after.

One slot a week, only bare essentials allowed to be ordered.

My agenda is for the country not to be completely ruined.

 

[LamieRobertson]

Bit of a s*hitty couple of days weather wise locally

 

[ManOfSussex]

Why should people that work in those areas be put at risk ?

People are happy to push for a lockdown, but still want others to be in harms way to supply them safely indoors.

Online only, min contact with anyone.

People want a lockdown, lets do one properly.

Sorry, but that does sounds a bit like like: 'People want a war? Well let's do one properly then! You and me outside - Defcon 1 nuclear attack right now, c'mon you 'aint got the bottle?!'

 

[Herr Tubthumper]

How does that one customer per ten square metres work ...is that similar to earlier in the year?

It relates to the size of your premises, to facilitate distancing ie if your shop is 10 square meters you can only allow 1 person in at a time, 20 and it’s 2 and so on. Yes, there were similar limits earlier in the year. Some cafes I frequent still follow this; not sure if this is voluntarily or not.

 

[LamieRobertson]

It relates to the size of your premises, to facilitate distancing ie if your shop is 10 square meters you can only allow 1 person in at a time, 20 and it’s 2 and so on. Yes, there were similar limits earlier in the year. Some cafes I frequent still follow this; not sure if this is voluntarily or not.

Ta for reply

 

[Poojah]

I think you're overlooking some factors here. In January the virus was being spread for a period of time before any restrictions were in place. This time everyone is socially distancing, mask wearing, hand washing, taking precautions, avoiding crowds, avoiding public transport, working from home etc.

To the contrary, I'm looking slightly beyond that period just before lockdown, and the deaths that would inevitably follow in early-to-mid April.

In Mid-may, we were recording around 500 deaths per day; lower than the peak, but still high. I know there's no set amount of time to die from Covid, but given we locked down on 23rd March it seems reasonable to believe that many of those dying then would have been infected under lockdown conditions, by which time all of those things (barring perhaps widespread use of masks) were happening.

In parts of the country hospitalisations appear to be surpassing first wave peak-levels - that certainly appears to be true up here in Leeds (though granted, down South the picture is currently quite different). Precautions are indeed being taken by the public, but in contrast to March and April most people are still free to go the pub, out for a meal, shopping, to the cinema etc. whilst schools, a major transmission risk, remain open with no meaningful social distancing protocols in place.

I don't claim to have the solution here by the way, it's just an observation that the country is very much open for business compared to earlier in the year and that cases and deaths are regrettably on the climb - logically you can only see a significantly worse outcome than we've already seen and whilst I think many of us have become somewhat desensitised by Covid death stats by now it still doesn't make for pleasant viewing.

The reality is, I think we're probably too far down the rabbit hole now to avoid a catastrophic level of death without economic ruin. How, as a government, you're meant to balance those two things, I don't know. But I look at some countries that took a hard line to local spikes (such as Victoria, Australia) and are in a better place for it despite those decisions being grossly unpopular at the time and wonder whether things getting this bad again were really, truly inevitable. We had things under relative control in the summer, and now they aren't, sadly.

 

[Guinness Boy]

Sage are pushing for a full lockdown.

So you are happy for people to put themselves at risk as long as you get what you need?

You are literally suggesting people who are supplying you whilst you sit at home are not worth looking after.

One slot a week, only bare essentials allowed to be ordered.

My agenda is for the country not to be completely ruined.

The people “supplying us” were called key workers in lockdown 1 and applauded weekly.

Are you suggesting the closure of pharmacies, police stations and food producers? If not, where do you draw the line?

Can you tell me how many households there are that would get a delivery once a week, how many vans to service them and how many journeys per day and what the average drop off time is?

The Germans have got it right. Again.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

 

[Herr Tubthumper]

Interesting about sports events, and that’s in low CV19 Germany.

Whilst NSC’ers still push for Amex crowds.

Do Germans complain en masse about back to no Bundesliga attendance?

There were a few small protests against restarting last season but I’ve not been aware of anything this season. To be fair, I’ve not kept up with this, but given the nature of German fans I am sure Id be aware of any significant protests either way.