Main Coronavirus / Covid-19 Discussion Thread

[doogie004]

Feels like we are in a movie like outbreak remember that


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[Bozza]

What am I missing here? As I understand it, this is a virus that is considerably less harmful than Flu, with a fatality rate very low as far as these things go. A quick google search shows the following:
In the UK it is estimated that an average of 600 people a year die from complications of flu. In some years it is estimated that this can rise to over 10,000 deaths (see for example this UK study from 2013 , which estimated over 13,000 deaths resulting from flu in 2008-09).

We don't quarantine people who have been in contact with the flu virus, we don't cancel sporting events whenever a particularly nasty flu virus appears.

So, I have two theories. 1. There is an international coverup, and this virus is actually several magnitudes more dangerous than we have been told, and that there are piles of deceased being incinerated in secret crematoria all over the world and 2.It is really not a biggie, and that the world authorities are using this as a test to see how the containment measures work should there be a virus as in theory 1.

If the first, then I can't see how the coverup would hold this long. There have been enough cases in the UK and elsewhere , where hiding all the bodies would be almost impossible for any length of time as there is too much easy access to the old interweb, after all, how many of us, living in one of the biggest cluster areas in the UK, know, or even know of through a friend of a friend of a friend any one who has been infected. All those infected all in the UK (as far as I am aware) have recovered or are recovering.

If its option 2, and the emergence of a new virus has provided the opportunity to see if it can be contained, then I think that if we were told that, people would be much more lax in prevention measures, thus negating efforts to contain it.

I'm not trying to make light of the situation, and obviously it makes sense to try and prevent the spread of the virus as much as possible, especially to those of us who know people who would be at risk from complications, in the same way we would with a flu bug, or norovirus etc with elderly or otherwise compromised people. I just dont understand the level of response which is far in excess of that for SARS and any other of a number of similar occasions in the past

What you're missing is it's considerably MORE harmful than seasonal flu.

If you're young, fit and have not been impacted by any of Cardiovascular disease, Diabetes, Chronic respiratory disease, Hypertension or Cancer you have little to worry about from a personal health/risk perspective.

Unfortunately many do and given how this virus spreads, without people knowing they have it, it has the potential to make a lot of people very sick very quickly, triggering a surge of demand on the health system that it is unable to cope with.

 

[pb21]

What you're missing is it's considerably MORE harmful than seasonal flu.

If you're young, fit and have not been impacted by any of Cardiovascular disease, Diabetes, Chronic respiratory disease, Hypertension or Cancer you have little to worry about from a personal health/risk perspective.

Unfortunately many do and given how this virus spreads, without people knowing they have it, it has the potential to make a lot of people very sick very quickly, triggering a surge of demand on the health system that it is unable to cope with.

Its also more contagious than flu, I understand twice as contagious(?), and no one is vaccinated against it.

 

[A1X]

[TWEET]1234791029490036737[/TWEET]

Of course whether all of them actually ARE sick is a different question...

 

[Driver8]

Glad to see Boris plan includes using retired health workers if required.

Hopefully the retired health workers won't be of an age where they are deemed 'high risk' of dying if anyone does catch it...

Indeed. If I was a retired health worker the last thing I would be doing is putting myself in harms way of a virus that could well kill me.

 

[Rodney Thomas]

Its also more contagious than flu, I understand twice as contagious(?), and no one is vaccinated against it.

Do you have a citation for that?

 

[nickbrighton]

What you're missing is it's considerably MORE harmful than seasonal flu.

If you're young, fit and have not been impacted by any of Cardiovascular disease, Diabetes, Chronic respiratory disease, Hypertension or Cancer you have little to worry about from a personal health/risk perspective.

Unfortunately many do and given how this virus spreads, without people knowing they have it, it has the potential to make a lot of people very sick very quickly, triggering a surge of demand on the health system that it is unable to cope with.

The key thing you're missing is that the mortality rate is significantly higher than that of the flu.

Good points, the mortality rate is still very much in doubt,and I expect wont be known for sometime. From various articles I have read today, there seems to be various reports from lower than a nasty flu, to higher! It certainly makes sense to try and prevent a new respiritory virus getting a hold in the same way as flu has. I am all for containment, I suppose my main point is whether we are getting far down the apocalyptic message and causing unecessary panic? That may be better than not doing enough. I really dont know

 

[beorhthelm]

What am I missing here? As I understand it, this is a virus that is considerably less harmful than Flu, with a fatality rate very low as far as these things go. A quick google search shows the following:

you're missing basic info: it is at least as severe as flu and fatality rate higher. the questions are around how much more severe.

 

[pb21]

Do you have a citation for that?

I read this here, but I have heard it elsewhere. Happy to be told I am wrong though!

Researchers still aren't sure how contagious COVID-19 is compared to other viruses, but it appears to spread more rapidly than the flu. “In public health we measure something called the R0 (pronounced 'R-naught') which is the average number of people infected by a person with the virus,” says Dr Brown. He goes on to explain that the R0 for influenza is about 1.3, meaning about 1.3 people get the virus from every ten who have the infection. Measles, on the other hand, is extremely contagious, with an R0 of 12-18. “We are still not sure what the R0 is for coronavirus, but it appears to be about 2.0, which is about the same as SARS,” Dr. Brown continues. “These are early estimates though and are likely to change as we get better data.”

https://www.health.com/condition/infectious-diseases/coronavirus-worse-than-flu

 

[Bakero]

Good points, the mortality rate is still very much in doubt,and I expect wont be known for sometime. From various articles I have read today, there seems to be various reports from lower than a nasty flu, to higher! It certainly makes sense to try and prevent a new respiritory virus getting a hold in the same way as flu has. I am all for containment, I suppose my main point is whether we are getting far down the apocalyptic message and causing unecessary panic? That may be better than not doing enough. I really dont know

I agree, no need to panic.

I'd be interested to know where you have read the mortality rate is lower than flu.

 

[beorhthelm]

Its also more contagious than flu, I understand twice as contagious(?), and no one is vaccinated against it.

there is no evidence for how contagious this specific virus is, current information is based on known similar viruses.
https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/about/transmission.html

 

[Rodney Thomas]

I read this here, but I have heard it elsewhere. Happy to be told I am wrong though!

https://www.health.com/condition/infectious-diseases/coronavirus-worse-than-flu

Interesting, however, again, the data is limited at best:

there is no evidence for how contagious this specific virus is, current information is based on known similar viruses.
https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/about/transmission.html

I think both people saying 'its no worse than the flu' and those asking for 'boarder closures' probably need to wind it in a little.

I have, however, slowly built up a around 2 weeks worth of food sticks over the past 4 weeks or so. People love to panic as shown in Sydney and Italy.

 

[Kosh]

I like the idea that six extra tins of beans will see you through more than a few extra days, lingering on whilst the corpses pile up and the world literally falls apart... water supplies will fail anyway, so you’ll need a warehouse guarded 24 hours a day full off bottled water to survive a few weeks.

It’s pointless, accept that humanity will (if not now) get what it deserves... only a few will survive and this civilisation will never again raise its head, so full of hubris... much like this thread.

Pah - no panic here, just grim acceptance. We’re utterly pathetic.

Anyway, let’s give Wolves a good hiding on Saturday, ay?

 

[peterward]

What am I missing here? As I understand it, this is a virus that is considerably less harmful than Flu, with a fatality rate very low as far as these things go. A quick google search shows the following:
In the UK it is estimated that an average of 600 people a year die from complications of flu. In some years it is estimated that this can rise to over 10,000 deaths (see for example this UK study from 2013 , which estimated over 13,000 deaths resulting from flu in 2008-09).

We don't quarantine people who have been in contact with the flu virus, we don't cancel sporting events whenever a particularly nasty flu virus appears.

So, I have two theories. 1. There is an international coverup, and this virus is actually several magnitudes more dangerous than we have been told, and that there are piles of deceased being incinerated in secret crematoria all over the world and 2.It is really not a biggie, and that the world authorities are using this as a test to see how the containment measures work should there be a virus as in theory 1.

If the first, then I can't see how the coverup would hold this long. There have been enough cases in the UK and elsewhere , where hiding all the bodies would be almost impossible for any length of time as there is too much easy access to the old interweb, after all, how many of us, living in one of the biggest cluster areas in the UK, know, or even know of through a friend of a friend of a friend any one who has been infected. All those infected all in the UK (as far as I am aware) have recovered or are recovering.

If its option 2, and the emergence of a new virus has provided the opportunity to see if it can be contained, then I think that if we were told that, people would be much more lax in prevention measures, thus negating efforts to contain it.

I'm not trying to make light of the situation, and obviously it makes sense to try and prevent the spread of the virus as much as possible, especially to those of us who know people who would be at risk from complications, in the same way we would with a flu bug, or norovirus etc with elderly or otherwise compromised people. I just dont understand the level of response which is far in excess of that for SARS and any other of a number of similar occasions in the past

As quoted by others, it's in first paragraph!. It's not less worse than seasonal flu, it's approx 10x worse than seasonal flu which has a mortality rate of about 0.1%. That 0.1% with no transmission containment kills up to 12-15k a year here and about 650k globally, though it affects millions more.

Uncontained coronavirus would X10 those numbers if similar transmissibility. But deaths is just the tip of the iceberg. Stretched Health care systems, government budgets, massive loss of workforce due death/sickness may have huge implications for the global economy. Already creaking under the weight of impossible debt.

 

[Bold Seagull]

Films for the weekend:

I like the idea that six extra tins of beans will see you through more than a few extra days, lingering on whilst the corpses pile up and the world literally falls apart... water supplies will fail anyway, so you’ll need a warehouse guarded 24 hours a day full off bottled water to survive a few weeks.

It’s pointless, accept that humanity will (if not now) get what it deserves... only a few will survive and this civilisation will never again raise its head, so full of hubris... much like this thread.

Pah - no panic here, just grim acceptance. We’re utterly pathetic.

Anyway, let’s give Wolves a good hiding on Saturday, ay?

Sounds like you watched all 5 films over the weekend, which one did you enjoy the best?

 

[Kosh]

Sounds like you watched all 5 films over the weekend, which one did you enjoy the best?

Actually I watched series 1 of the Brittas Empire... I guess it made me all nostalgic for those simple days, and 1980s sports centres.

 

[Bold Seagull]

Actually I watched series 1 of the Brittas Empire... I guess it made me all nostalgic for those simple days, and 1980s sports centres.

Hey, you're talking to someone who plays squash and racketball still! I play matches at various clubs around Sussex that haven't changed since the 80s!

 

[Kosh]

Hey, you're talking to someone who plays squash and racketball still! I play matches at various clubs around Sussex that haven't changed since the 80s!

Please tell me you wear a matching set of wrist and head sweatbands ? Dunlop shorts too?

Perhaps humanity has a chance.

I’m off to dig out the soda stream...

 

[Insel affe]

Please tell me you wear a matching set of wrist and head sweatbands ? Dunlop shorts too?

Perhaps humanity has a chance.

I’m off to dig out the soda stream...

Oi....

Nowt wrong with a Soda Stream, love fizzy water.....

 

[vegster]

I fully expect Johnson to relocate to Mustique in the very near future so as he can get a good grasp of the overall picture of the spread and impact of Covid-19....then he will be able to run government from Skype and Facebook.