Main Coronavirus / Covid-19 Discussion Thread

[Insel affe]

Great stuff, I expect panic buying to take hold very soon, also cash machines will be emptied. Social and sports events, Holidays, cancelled.

Being selfish the wife and daughter have a trip to Plymouth planned next week, will they get back or even be allowed to go.
We have a holiday to Italy booked in April, The wife travels to London every day using the tube, what’s she bringing back each day.
How will bills be paid, if were forced to stay at home, or work in or out of locked down town, will we get sick pay, who will enforce curfews, crazy to think of road blocks surrounding towns.
Millions of people with the same issues as above...
Will people panic buy, civil unrest, very worrying...
I have a cold.... should we really be that worried by 1% fatality rate, what are they not telling us !!

Ah so many questions, that no one knows....

Good luck everyone, something wicked this way comes....

Or

Two-Three weeks off

With the family at home.....

This all might just send me mad....

 

[Surf's Up]

That pretty much sums up where I am.

I wish I had the optimism of [MENTION=616]Guinness Boy[/MENTION] and [MENTION=13055]Ninja Elephant[/MENTION], but I'm finding it difficult to see how, sooner or later, we don't go through a period more challenging than most of us have ever had to deal with.

Me too, at the moment we've just seen the top bit of the tip of the iceberg...what will happen from here is of course open to speculation but we the government will not be able to enforce new controls in anyway like the Chinese have so at worst there will be unprecedented selfishness, indiscipline and survival of the fittest on display

 

[Albion Dan]

Wow some spectacular over reaction on this thread.

 

[peterward]

We need to try everything humanely possible to avoid getting it. People with conditions like CF, Asthma, COPD really shouldn't be allowed to leave their houses I don't think.
We also don't know the long term implications this will have on the lucky ones who do recover.

I'd like to see border closures, if not, at the very least anyone entering the country should have to quarantine for 21 days.
It should be enforced that if you can work from home, you should.
Only one person from each household to leave house every 2 or 3 days in worse effected areas.
Mass gatherings, social events cancelled.
Businesses to run with skeleton staff across UK

Totally agree about shutting borders. But still don't think government is that serious. Bojo said "we will stop at nothing to prevent the spread of Coronavirus" but still leaves borders wide open from hotspots.

It will be a case of closing the door after the horse has bolted. Reactive and not proactive.

Fwiw my Mrs has an autoimmune lung condition called sarcoidosis, she will be in v.high risk group for sure, she's convinced she will die if she gets it.

I already bought masks and Dettol touch free anti bac dispenser etc just in case. I took what is for me a pretty radical step, I read about about one of the drugs being used in China and that has shown to massively help some people is an HIV drug. The brand name is kaletra:
http://www.natap.org/2020/newsUpdates/020420_02.htm

but there's identical cheaper generic Indian copies available called lopimune and HIVUS-LR. I found one such pharmacy with lots of positive reviews on our trustpilot site, about £50 a bottle of 60, I ordered 2 with int courier about £125. Most sites are sold out already.

A lot of people have shown good recoveries and whilst it's not a cure, it stops the virus from replicating inside you, making it a smaller problem and easier for immune system to deal with.

Sturgeon in Scotland said worse case is 4/5 people will get it, if even 2/5 do, it's not hard to imagine hospitals rammed and drugs in short supply. If you catch it in next few weeks, no doubt you'll get all treatment you need on NHS, but if it does get out if control, then what? I felt I had to for my Mrs just in case of that 'what if'

Best case I've just wasted £125 and I'll bin it, worse case at least I'm getting something that can prevent it multiplying if the NHS isn't coping.

 

[Deportivo Seagull]

We need to try everything humanely possible to avoid getting it. People with conditions like CF, Asthma, COPD really shouldn't be allowed to leave their houses I don't think.
We also don't know the long term implications this will have on the lucky ones who do recover.

I'd like to see border closures, if not, at the very least anyone entering the country should have to quarantine for 21 days.
It should be enforced that if you can work from home, you should.
Only one person from each household to leave house every 2 or 3 days in worse effected areas.
Mass gatherings, social events cancelled.
Businesses to run with skeleton staff across UK

I never took you for a dictator ...

Granted those that have the conditions listed above ( you forgot dementia and diabetes which seem to be more affected) from your list, need to be vigilant, washing hands etc. However, locking them in there own homes is a bit off. Most people have very mild systems, in fact half the problem is that people appear to have symptoms so mild they don’t know they have it, hence why it is spreading.

What you are suggesting above would effectively bring the country to a halt, crippling the health service and very likely lead to public unrest.

I lost my father last year and my mother the year before. My mother had cancer and Parkinson’s. my father dementia, cancer and COPD. It was a continual worry regards coughs and colds etc but at the end of the day, short of confining them to the house there is only so much you can do. Life sucks but it is what it is.....


Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk

 

[Tom Hark Preston Park]

#BeMorePartridge

 

[peterward]

I never took you for a dictator ...

Granted those that have the conditions listed above ( you forgot dementia and diabetes which seem to be more affected) from your list, need to be vigilant, washing hands etc. However, locking them in there own homes is a bit off. Most people have very mild systems, in fact half the problem is that people appear to have symptoms so mild they don’t know they have it, hence why it is spreading.

What you are suggesting above would effectively bring the country to a halt, crippling the health service and very likely lead to public unrest.

I lost my father last year and my mother the year before. My mother had cancer and Parkinson’s. my father dementia, cancer and COPD. It was a continual worry regards coughs and colds etc but at the end of the day, short of confining them to the house there is only so much you can do. Life sucks but it is what it is.....


Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk

Mum's got Parkinson's, grandad now passed also did ..... Horrible life sapping disease.

I guess the post linked was worse case scenario? Only allowing people to get food every few days is what's going down in Wuhan, def no need for anything that severe here yet.

Obvs as someone yourself whose had close relatives that needed the health service, the other consideration is even now before covid19 is that bad here, the NHS is barely coping. With a good few thousand UK cases, what gives? Parkinson's patients? Operations? Cancer screening? Because there is no way we have the extra capacity except at the expense of someone else's non covid19 issues.

 

[Bozza]

Wow some spectacular over reaction on this thread.

The chances of me catching this today or this week - almost nil.

The chances of me dieing if I catch it any point - very low.

But, the broader implications seem significantly more severe. We don't have thousands (tens of thousands?) of ICU beds just sitting there waiting for something like this to happen. By all accounts, in Northern Italy the health system is already at breaking point (https://abcnews.go.com/Health/wireStory/italys-health-system-limit-virus-struck-lombardy-69331977) whilst many of those on the coalface in this country do not feel we will be able to adequately cope (https://www.theguardian.com/society...-out-of-1600-doctors-in-poll-say-nhs-is-ready) should cases spiral as seems to be expected.

How do you see this playing out, out of interest?

 

[Bold Seagull]

#BeMorePartridge

"...after handling raw meat"
"is that a euphemism?"

Oh I still laugh at that one.

 

[Tom Hark Preston Park]

"...after handling raw meat"
"is that a euphemism?"

Oh I still laugh at that one.

And gotta love the Train Toilet Drill at the end

 

[beorhthelm]

...With a good few thousand UK cases, what gives? Parkinson's patients? Operations? Cancer screening? Because there is no way we have the extra capacity except at the expense of someone else's non covid19 issues.

all the above. nothing remotely non-critical will be admitted, you wouldnt want to anyway in case of cross infections.

 

[Deleted member 22389]

The chances of me catching this today or this week - almost nil.

The chances of me dieing if I catch it any point - very low.

But, the broader implications seem significantly more severe. We don't have thousands (tens of thousands?) of ICU beds just sitting there waiting for something like this to happen. By all accounts, in Northern Italy the health system is already at breaking point (https://abcnews.go.com/Health/wireStory/italys-health-system-limit-virus-struck-lombardy-69331977) whilst many of those on the coalface in this country do not feel we will be able to adequately cope (https://www.theguardian.com/society...-out-of-1600-doctors-in-poll-say-nhs-is-ready) should cases spiral as seems to be expected.

How do you see this playing out, out of interest?

I'm less worried than I was in January, as we know what to expect with the Virus. I'm more worried about how the NHS would cope, if this got out of control. The government know this, which is why we are taking things so seriously now.

We just have to be sensible, think about where we are going, wash your hands and so on, and don't get on any planes.

As for Italy, I just hope this doesn't spread south, because as regards health care it is even worse.

 

[peterward]

I'm less worried than I was in January, as we know what to expect with the Virus. I'm more worried about how the NHS would cope, if this got out of control. The government know this, which is why we are taking things so seriously now.

We just have to be sensible, think about where we are going, wash your hands and so on, and don't get on any planes.

As for Italy, I just hope this doesn't spread south, because as regards health care it is even worse.

I'm not worried for myself or young kids, don't fancy getting it, but rational mind says I'll be fine.

I am worried about the Mrs though and if any one of us gets it, youd likeky all get it before anyone realises. Anybody with young kids knows the amount of viral crap kids can bring from school.

 

[peterward]

The chances of me catching this today or this week - almost nil.

The chances of me dieing if I catch it any point - very low.

But, the broader implications seem significantly more severe. We don't have thousands (tens of thousands?) of ICU beds just sitting there waiting for something like this to happen. By all accounts, in Northern Italy the health system is already at breaking point (https://abcnews.go.com/Health/wireStory/italys-health-system-limit-virus-struck-lombardy-69331977) whilst many of those on the coalface in this country do not feel we will be able to adequately cope (https://www.theguardian.com/society...-out-of-1600-doctors-in-poll-say-nhs-is-ready) should cases spiral as seems to be expected.

How do you see this playing out, out of interest?

That abc article about Italy is really interesting, something I didn't consider till reading it, 10% of health care workers in that northern Italian region caught it and are now quarantined at the moment of max crises you lose 10% of health care professionals. That's serious shit.

 

[Albion Dan]

Deadly Chinese Wuhan virus - Covid-19

The chances of me catching this today or this week - almost nil.

The chances of me dieing if I catch it any point - very low.

But, the broader implications seem significantly more severe. We don't have thousands (tens of thousands?) of ICU beds just sitting there waiting for something like this to happen. By all accounts, in Northern Italy the health system is already at breaking point (https://abcnews.go.com/Health/wireStory/italys-health-system-limit-virus-struck-lombardy-69331977) whilst many of those on the coalface in this country do not feel we will be able to adequately cope (https://www.theguardian.com/society...-out-of-1600-doctors-in-poll-say-nhs-is-ready) should cases spiral as seems to be expected.

How do you see this playing out, out of interest?

I work on the board of a public transport company so we are pretty well briefed. I think it likely that this will spread quite far but the reality is it’s a bit worse than flu in terms of mortality rate (particularly for over 80s) and for most people below symptoms can be almost unnoticed up to a bad cold. I worry about my dad as he’s got chest issues but to suggest shutting entire social systems as suggested by some in here is ludicrous. I actually think this is likely to be with us for the long term and will be viewed in exactly the same way flu/a cold is in years to come. The worst thing we could do as a society is panic, run on the banks, panic shop.

I understand people who are at risk being concerned and taking precautions, and we should all be practicing good hygiene as per the advice given.

 

[Bozza]

I think it likely that this will spread quite far but the reality is it’s a bit worse than flu in terms of mortality rate (particularly for over 80s) and for most people below symptoms can be almost unnoticed up to a bad cold.

In Northern Italy where it began to "spread quite far", 50% of those with it have mild symptoms and are in self-isolation at home, 40% are hospitalised and 10% are in intensive care.

It's those latter two numbers, when multiplied across a large population that are of concern.

 

[Rodney Thomas]

In Northern Italy where it began to "spread quite far", 50% of those with it have mild symptoms and are in self-isolation at home, 40% are hospitalised and 10% are in intensive care.

It's those latter two numbers, when multiplied across a large population that are of concern.

This is partially due to lack of understanding and research though. I am interested to see how this is dealt with in Europe and and other high performing healthcare systems. Most of the data we have now is either from China (unreliable and a poor healthcare system) or statistically insignificant. There is also a question of healthcare policy, there is no way most cases of flu will be admitted to hospital (with the majority being treated at home via GP or community healthcare services) as it is not viable or necessary. Once we have some more info on Covid-19 those hospital admission rates may decrease significantly if a policy of homecare/selfcare can be safely implemented.

 

[nickbrighton]

What am I missing here? As I understand it, this is a virus that is considerably less harmful than Flu, with a fatality rate very low as far as these things go. A quick google search shows the following:
In the UK it is estimated that an average of 600 people a year die from complications of flu. In some years it is estimated that this can rise to over 10,000 deaths (see for example this UK study from 2013 , which estimated over 13,000 deaths resulting from flu in 2008-09).

We don't quarantine people who have been in contact with the flu virus, we don't cancel sporting events whenever a particularly nasty flu virus appears.

So, I have two theories. 1. There is an international coverup, and this virus is actually several magnitudes more dangerous than we have been told, and that there are piles of deceased being incinerated in secret crematoria all over the world and 2.It is really not a biggie, and that the world authorities are using this as a test to see how the containment measures work should there be a virus as in theory 1.

If the first, then I can't see how the coverup would hold this long. There have been enough cases in the UK and elsewhere , where hiding all the bodies would be almost impossible for any length of time as there is too much easy access to the old interweb, after all, how many of us, living in one of the biggest cluster areas in the UK, know, or even know of through a friend of a friend of a friend any one who has been infected. All those infected all in the UK (as far as I am aware) have recovered or are recovering.

If its option 2, and the emergence of a new virus has provided the opportunity to see if it can be contained, then I think that if we were told that, people would be much more lax in prevention measures, thus negating efforts to contain it.

I'm not trying to make light of the situation, and obviously it makes sense to try and prevent the spread of the virus as much as possible, especially to those of us who know people who would be at risk from complications, in the same way we would with a flu bug, or norovirus etc with elderly or otherwise compromised people. I just dont understand the level of response which is far in excess of that for SARS and any other of a number of similar occasions in the past

 

[Bakero]

What am I missing here? As I understand it, this is a virus that is considerably less harmful than Flu, with a fatality rate very low as far as these things go. A quick google search shows the following:
In the UK it is estimated that an average of 600 people a year die from complications of flu. In some years it is estimated that this can rise to over 10,000 deaths (see for example this UK study from 2013 , which estimated over 13,000 deaths resulting from flu in 2008-09).

We don't quarantine people who have been in contact with the flu virus, we don't cancel sporting events whenever a particularly nasty flu virus appears.

So, I have two theories. 1. There is an international coverup, and this virus is actually several magnitudes more dangerous than we have been told, and that there are piles of deceased being incinerated in secret crematoria all over the world and 2.It is really not a biggie, and that the world authorities are using this as a test to see how the containment measures work should there be a virus as in theory 1.

If the first, then I can't see how the coverup would hold this long. There have been enough cases in the UK and elsewhere , where hiding all the bodies would be almost impossible for any length of time as there is too much easy access to the old interweb, after all, how many of us, living in one of the biggest cluster areas in the UK, know, or even know of through a friend of a friend of a friend any one who has been infected. All those infected all in the UK (as far as I am aware) have recovered or are recovering.

If its option 2, and the emergence of a new virus has provided the opportunity to see if it can be contained, then I think that if we were told that, people would be much more lax in prevention measures, thus negating efforts to contain it.

I'm not trying to make light of the situation, and obviously it makes sense to try and prevent the spread of the virus as much as possible, especially to those of us who know people who would be at risk from complications, in the same way we would with a flu bug, or norovirus etc with elderly or otherwise compromised people. I just dont understand the level of response which is far in excess of that for SARS and any other of a number of similar occasions in the past

The key thing you're missing is that the mortality rate is significantly higher than that of the flu.

 

[Springal]

Glad to see Boris plan includes using retired health workers if required.

Hopefully the retired health workers won't be of an age where they are deemed 'high risk' of dying if anyone does catch it...