Main Coronavirus / Covid-19 Discussion Thread

[beorhthelm]

https://www.brusselstimes.com/news/...il-introduces-long-term-coronavirus-strategy/

Belgium are using hospitalisation as the main judge of levels.

Just reading through that and realising how much more organised the are is annoying.

not much different is it, better presentation? without the noise of being in and around all the chat, i wonder what our rules look like from outside, as a snapshot article. one problems we have is the Scotish, Welsh, NI rules being broadcast to the 56 million people they dont affect.

 

[Bozza]

not much different is it, better presentation? without the noise of being in and around all the chat, i wonder what our rules look like from outside, as a snapshot article. one problems we have is the Scotish, Welsh, NI rules being broadcast to the 56 million people they dont affect.

Also seems somewhat bizarre to be championing a country with the worst death rate in Europe.

 

[Kinky Gerbil]

not much different is it, better presentation? without the noise of being in and around all the chat, i wonder what our rules look like from outside, as a snapshot article. one problems we have is the Scotish, Welsh, NI rules being broadcast to the 56 million people they dont affect.

It seems they are moving forward rather than backwards

Maybe that’s it

 

[Rugrat]

I have no interest in engaging with almost everything you write, but I will pick this one up.

I don't know if by stronger you mean "more infectious" or "more harmful", not that it matters, as neither seem to the the case.

There is absolutely nothing, anywhere, that suggests the virus is getting stronger. Scroll back a page or two and you'll find a link I posted to a detailed article that goes over the genetic analysis of the virus and concludes no mutation has taken place. Bizarrely, this piece was actually written to counter the suggestion/hope that the virus has got weaker.

What is the case is we drove the prevalence of the virus down to very low levels - pushed it way back down that exponential growth curve due to the raft of measures we put in place - most of which you seem to hate and think were completely unnecessary.

Having achieved this low level of virus amongst the community, we've gradually allowed more and more economic, social and educational activity to take place, each of them increasing the social interactions that take place and that the virus needs to thrive and spread. From the low base of mid-Summer, the virus has started working its way up the exponential curve to where we are today, where there is a lot more infected and contagious people out there. We took our foot off the metaphorical brake for too long, and we now need to apply it again before things completely run away from us.

In one regard we are fortunate in that much of the virus spread has been amongst the low-risk demographic, largely the young, which means few suffering the worst effects, but that can't and won't last forever and now we see hospitalisations on the rise with deaths seemingly going the same way, although from a low base, thankfully.

Good stuff ... wonder if the bullies will turn on you?

 

[beorhthelm]

the information is poor though. i hear that the 10pm limit is for last orders, not close and kick out. the table service will only apply where there's a alcohol licence, so doesnt apply to cafes, sandwich shops, McD etc.

also, who knew there was a release of the NHS tracking app tomorrow? supposedly hospitality venues will have a QR code to scan.

 

[nicko31]

Big jump today to 6200 cases today, worrying...

 

[Albion Dan]

what in the UK? is anybody looking into that?

Ahh so as long as we’re ok in the UK. The 4 million people dying of hunger isn’t a problem for us to worry about. You obviously only consider life something to destroy our society over if the problem is on our shores. Bit selfish no?

 

[Albion Dan]

I have no interest in engaging with almost everything you write, but I will pick this one up.

I don't know if by stronger you mean "more infectious" or "more harmful", not that it matters, as neither seem to the the case.

There is absolutely nothing, anywhere, that suggests the virus is getting stronger. Scroll back a page or two and you'll find a link I posted to a detailed article that goes over the genetic analysis of the virus and concludes no mutation has taken place. Bizarrely, this piece was actually written to counter the suggestion/hope that the virus has got weaker.

What is the case is we drove the prevalence of the virus down to very low levels - pushed it way back down that exponential growth curve due to the raft of measures we put in place - most of which you seem to hate and think were completely unnecessary.

Having achieved this low level of virus amongst the community, we've gradually allowed more and more economic, social and educational activity to take place, each of them increasing the social interactions that take place and that the virus needs to thrive and spread. From the low base of mid-Summer, the virus has started working its way up the exponential curve to where we are today, where there is a lot more infected and contagious people out there. We took our foot off the metaphorical brake for too long, and we now need to apply it again before things completely run away from us.

In one regard we are fortunate in that much of the virus spread has been amongst the low-risk demographic, largely the young, which means few suffering the worst effects, but that can't and won't last forever and now we see hospitalisations on the rise with deaths seemingly going the same way, although from a low base, thankfully.

I meant more prevalent seasonally and the impact is therefore stronger, sorry about the semantics. So this is likely to hit us seasonally. Same as Flu does. Every. Single. Year. Do you think it’s actually realistic to live in a perpetual state of up and down restrictions until this disease doesn’t exist? You do realise a vaccine is HIGHLY unlikely to eradicate this illness? Like it doesn’t with flu? What’s the end game here in your view?

 

[Herr Tubthumper]

I meant more prevalent seasonally and the impact is therefore stronger, sorry about the semantics. So this is likely to hit us seasonally. Same as Flu does. Every. Single. Year. Do you think it’s actually realistic to live in a perpetual state of up and down restrictions until this disease doesn’t exist? You do realise a vaccine is HIGHLY unlikely to eradicate this illness? Like it doesn’t with flu? What’s the end game here in your view?

I agree it most likely won’t be 100% eradicated. But vaccines, and treatments for symptoms, will enable the management of the virus in a similar way to, say, influenza. Then we won’t be “in a perpetual state of up and down restrictions”

 

[Kinky Gerbil]

I agree it most likely won’t be 100% eradicated. But vaccines, and treatments for symptoms, will enable the management of the virus in a similar way to, say, influenza. Then we won’t be “in a perpetual state of up and down restrictions”

So what happens if there is no vaccine for a couple of years, then on top of that how long will it take to get everyone vaccinated

 

[Harry Wilson's tackle]

Big jump today to 6200 cases today, worrying...

Hospitalizations creeping up (250 new) but still very low. Deaths creeping up (37) but still very low. My fingers are still crossed that it has mutated to pussy Covid. We will know for sure in 2 weeks. Maybe sooner.

If it has mutated....let's all hope, eh? Still too soon to call it, though.

 

[Yoda]

I found this to be rather interesting, majority of all cases in the South East have been female


Also cases in the South East, after an initial rise, appear to hopefully be levelling off
View attachment export (2).png

 

[Harry Wilson's tackle]

There is absolutely nothing, anywhere, that suggests the virus is getting stronger. Scroll back a page or two and you'll find a link I posted to a detailed article that goes over the genetic analysis of the virus and concludes no mutation has taken place. Bizarrely, this piece was actually written to counter the suggestion/hope that the virus has got weaker.

Thanks for that. I was interested in the provenance of your earlier comment to this effect.

I think someone may have the wrong end of the stick, however. There are and were at the beginning possibly hundreds of different mutants although in April it was felt they were all very similar in fragility and ability to do harm.

So given that there have always been a range of mutants there will be a range of mutants now, and unfortunately you cannot predict function from form. A tiny mutation may make a virus much less lethal, just as a tiny mutation in the human genome can cause cystic fibrosis. You don't indentify the relavant mutation till the phenotype changes. The phenotype includes, for example, the letality.

My guess is we will pick up on there being a relevant mutation after we find that hospitalizations and deaths are no longer mapped to cases like they were. It may already have happened.

Anyway, all the best to you. I sent you a pm a while ago that may be lost in the aether, or maybe you just though 'no idea what to say to that'.....

 

[beorhthelm]

I meant more prevalent seasonally and the impact is therefore stronger, sorry about the semantics. So this is likely to hit us seasonally. Same as Flu does. Every. Single. Year. Do you think it’s actually realistic to live in a perpetual state of up and down restrictions until this disease doesn’t exist? You do realise a vaccine is HIGHLY unlikely to eradicate this illness? Like it doesn’t with flu? What’s the end game here in your view?

it has been mentioned that covid isnt flu. this graph will help illustrate the major difference

https://i.insider.com/5ef234caf34d051bc821d0d8?width=700&format=jpeg&auto=webp

even if we assume over-estimation of prevelence in the population, we are upto an order of magnitude larger. so for flu we might have 10-20k excess deaths, covid might have 20-100k excess deaths. do you remember March, the scenes and news from Italy and Spain of hospitals overwhelmed, the carehomes across europe wiped out by covid? tell me when did you here of that with flu? the nations of the world independently all shat the bed over this, they wouldnt have done so if it just another annual flu.

and because its different, we are highly likely to be able to control this with a vaccine. but we might not, so we'd have to get used to some restrictions.

 

[beorhthelm]

So what happens if there is no vaccine for a couple of years, then on top of that how long will it take to get everyone vaccinated

several vaccines are in phase 3 trails, could be through by next month, and already production to cut that delay. we vaccinate 25-30m each year, schools at work (might be more problematic), roll it out in few months.

 

[Herr Tubthumper]

So what happens if there is no vaccine for a couple of years, then on top of that how long will it take to get everyone vaccinated

several vaccines are in phase 3 trails, could be through by next month, and already production to cut that delay. we vaccinate 25-30m each year, schools at work (might be more problematic), roll it out in few months.

There’s a number of candidates and still a number hurdles of hurdles for each one. The obvious one being that it needs to show favourable results. But there’s also regulatory approval, licensing, manufacture and distribution deals and then there’s the actual manufacture and distribution. This gets it to the countries. Then the countries need to get it out to the doctors and finally to the people. There’s some way to go but if a vaccine shows it works my guess is late 1Q next year.

 

[Albion Dan]

and because its different, we are highly likely to be able to control this with a vaccine. but we might not, so we'd have to get used to some restrictions.

Highly likely? Based on what evidence?

If not, restrictions forever? For a disease that kills barely anyone in the grand scheme of the population. Are you serious? What world do you seriously think we’ll be living in?

Also when was that chart produced? If it was in the first 3 months of the virus then it’s nonsense as no one could get a test so no one knows how many people had it so the % death rates are impossible to measure.

 

[Herr Tubthumper]

Highly likely? Based on what evidence?

Are you asking why it’s highly likely you can manage virus with vaccines? If so, isn’t it obvious?

 

[beorhthelm]

There’s a number of candidates and still a number hurdles of hurdles for each one. The obvious one being that it needs to show favourable results. But there’s also regulatory approval, licensing, manufacture and distribution deals and then there’s the actual manufacture and distribution. This gets it to the countries. Then the countries need to get it out to the doctors and finally to the people. There’s some way to go but if a vaccine shows it works my guess is late 1Q next year.

they'll be fast-tracked through regulatory approval, as shorts as 20 days i've heard, and manufacturing is already being set up. if all goes to plan i've heard Astrazeneca could have vaccine in clincal settings by November. Pfizer reckon they'll have 100m units out by December, sounds ambitious but thats what the industry is shooting at. fingers crossed.

 

[Lower West Stander]

Just watched Keir Starmer.

I wish he’d show a bit more gumption other than moaning about the economic impact. What annoys me about this is that there is absolutely no debate. We are having measures imposed on us without having any ability to question the decisions being made. The information we are given is being tightly controlled to ensure public opinion is backing everything the Government are doing. People who don’t agree are being dismissed as conspiracy theorists or selfish idiots who don’t know what they are talking about. The numbers of hospital admissions and deaths are nowhere near where they were during lockdown yet we are being given the impression it’s just as bad as it was 6 months ago.

It is the role of the opposition to challenge this but I think Starmer is too scared as he risks losing support. Instead it’s been left to Graham Brady to try and bring proper Parliamentary debate into this. I’m not saying the measures are necessarily wrong, but I really don’t like the way the information flow is being controlled without any form of challenge. Why can’t we hear from some scientists who don’t agree with the latest measures being taken?

This is far more two way then we are being told.


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