Main Coronavirus / Covid-19 Discussion Thread

[KZNSeagull]

Lockdown confirmed for at least another 3 weeks.

5 points that will need to be satisfied before easing lockdown is considered:

1. Must protect NHS's ability to cope
2. Must be sustained and consistent fall in c19 death rates
3. rate of infection decreasing to manageable levels across the board
4. confident that range of operational measures including testing and PPE can meet future demand
5. confident that any adjustment will not result in a second peak.

 

[sparkie]

3 more weeks which takes us up to the day before the bank holiday weekend.

They should have included the bank holiday otherwise it'll be "let's all go crazy down the beach".

 

[The Wizard]

These reporters do my swede in, they get their chance to ask a question and they ask a question they KNOW isn’t going to be answered/can’t be answered.

‘Why can’t you give the public an idea of what will happen when restrictions are lifted’

 

[DFL JCL]

These reporters do my swede in, they get their chance to ask a question and they ask a question they KNOW isn’t going to be answered/can’t be answered.

‘Why can’t you give the public an idea of what will happen when restrictions are lifted’

I whole heartedly agree with you. I don't think they are reflecting the publics thoughts on this. Certainly not from my perspective. Of course I would like to know what the exit plan is once the time is right. But I think people understand we aren't there yet. I just get the impression the journalists are sensationalising stuff unnecessarily. The only valid question today so far was the one about surology.

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[Green Cross Code Man]

I whole heartedly agree with you. I don't think they are reflecting the publics thoughts on this. Certainly not from my perspective. Of course I would like to know what the exit plan is once the time is right. But I think people understand we aren't there yet. I just get the impression the journalists are sensationalising stuff unnecessarily. The only valid question today so far was the one about surology.

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Yes it was notable than one reporter, I can't recall which one, asked why the government was ignoring the question that everyone is talking about, on the TV, in the press.

What a plum. It is media driven, all the people I know accept the current difficulty and are trying to do their best in difficult circumstances. None are champing at the bit for an answer about lockdowns.

 

[Yoda]

Yes it was notable than one reporter, I can't recall which one, asked why the government was ignoring the question that everyone is talking about, on the TV, in the press.

What a plum. It is media driven, all the people I know accept the current difficulty and are trying to do their best in difficult circumstances. None are champing at the bit for an answer about lockdowns.

I don't think the press are looking at time scales, as that's just stupid and falls under those 5 point above. But what would be useful to some people is knowing what areas of the lockdown will be eased an in what order if numbers continue to decline as we go through each stage. Granted, the keeping your distance may have to remain until a vaccine is found, or antibody testing proves to work and you cannot contract it again (which all seems to have gone quite on).

 

[Green Cross Code Man]

I don't think the press are looking at time scales, as that's just stupid and falls under those 5 point above. But what would be useful to some people is knowing what areas of the lockdown will be eased an in what order if numbers continue to decline as we go through each stage. Granted, the keeping your distance may have to remain until a vaccine is found, or antibody testing proves to work and you cannot contract it again (which all seems to have gone quite on).

I am curious, but I am content not to know for now, how things like the rush hour will work on public transport for instance if we are supposed to socially distance. For myself, I teach in a primary school, social distancing is impossible given both the number of children around and also given their age as the younger they are, the less possible distancing would be.

 

[Bodian]

This graph of deaths by actual date of death (rather than when it is registered) looks much more encouraging - assuming it is correct.

Edit: If you download the summary spreadsheet here the data is clear: https://www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/

We are WELL PAST the peak already. This really should be reported.

18k tests, 4.6k new cases. New cases also at a plateau

Re: the chart above, I’m pretty sure more deaths will be added from the past few days at a later date so I’m not sure how reliable that is.

If you look at the raw data that is clearly stated.

Just looking at the data from today, 90% of the deaths reported occurred in the last five days. So in reality will end up with a graph like the red line below.

View attachment 122314

That assumes that there are no more unreported deaths that have already happened which is very unlikely.

I think the most accurate 'date of death' data is released by the ONS about 11 days in arrears. (I think it was published up to 3rd April on Tuesday). Along with others, I suspect the dip in the last few days on that graph isn't actually accurate

It's ENTIRELY accurate, but only relates to hospital deaths. I would, however, expect a graph of all deaths to follow a similar pattern.

Someone has also put the data together showing when the death occurred that are reported each day - which may be the data fed into the graphs above. Anyway, it shows that the vast majority of deaths are reported within 3-4 days. So unless something different has suddenly happened, it would look as though things have levelled off.


https://twitter.com/RP131

 

[Triggaaar]

This graph of deaths by actual date of death (rather than when it is registered) looks much more encouraging - assuming it is correct.

Although this is the data I want to see, there's not much point in looking at the figures for the last few days, because as you've alluded to, many of the deaths for the recent days have not yet been reported. Even the last couple of weeks won't be up to date.

I assume others have already pointed this out.

EDIT

If you look at the raw data that is clearly stated.

Just looking at the data from today, 90% of the deaths reported occurred in the last five days. So in reality will end up with a graph like the red line below.

View attachment 122314

That red line is just an average of the deaths, it doesn't allow for the fact that the most recent numbers will end up a lot higher?

 

[Sorrel]

Watching lots of people become death statisticians has become something I didn't expect to see at the start of the year. (Not that I mind, it's a perfectly reasonable thing to do under the circumstances.)

 

[oldboyroy]

I think we've definitely gone past peak and it's just a case of making sure the new infection rate goes down too. This in particular with the higher amount of tests being done. Did I hear something along the lines of they want the positive tests to be around half the daily death figure or am I mistaken?

 

[Notters]

Although this is the data I want to see, there's not much point in looking at the figures for the last few days, because as you've alluded to, many of the deaths for the recent days have not yet been reported. Even the last couple of weeks won't be up to date.

I assume others have already pointed this out.

EDIT
That red line is just an average of the deaths, it doesn't allow for the fact that the most recent numbers will end up a lot higher?

It literally does, it allows for circa 400 additional deaths from yesterday and 200 from the day before.

 

[Guinness Boy]

If you look at the raw data that is clearly stated.

Just looking at the data from today, 90% of the deaths reported occurred in the last five days. So in reality will end up with a graph like the red line below.

View attachment 122314

Red line looks very much like the "flatten the curve" diagrams.

 

[LamieRobertson]

I am curious, but I am content not to know for now, how things like the rush hour will work on public transport for instance if we are supposed to socially distance. For myself, I teach in a primary school, social distancing is impossible given both the number of children around and also given their age as the younger they are, the less possible distancing would be.

Perhaps this is what we will be watching how other countries manage it....referring to the op’s reply to your post ..,..it not necessarily the timescale...its giving us an idea as to what areas they are looking at to be loosened (gently) when appropriate...the questions over that aren’t going to go away

 

[LamieRobertson]

These reporters do my swede in, they get their chance to ask a question and they ask a question they KNOW isn’t going to be answered/can’t be answered.

‘Why can’t you give the public an idea of what will happen when restrictions are lifted’

Is there a need for a daily update...once every other day?

 

[Wrong-Direction]

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[Weststander]

Is there a need for a daily update...once every other day?

The Government would get slammed for not doing it daily. Politics, but moreover the narrative set by the media, drives the PR.

 

[LamieRobertson]

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Done that place near your Dads yet or still on housework?

 

[beorhthelm]

The Government would get slammed for not doing it daily. Politics, but moreover the narrative set by the media, drives the PR.

yep. "why arent you doing a daily update? what are you hiding? are you not doing daily update because of bad news?" etc. media need their fix.

 

[Triggaaar]

It literally does, it allows for circa 400 additional deaths from yesterday and 200 from the day before.

Ok, but we're looking at more than 2 days worth of data, and you only have to go back 4 days for the red line to match the number of deaths currently reported for that date, but we're actually getting deaths reported from over 2 weeks back.