Horton's halftime iceberg
Blooming Marvellous
This report is from the 23 of January, over a month ago.
It quotes - Out of the 571 cases, 95 cases ares severely ill
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Main Coronavirus / Covid-19 Discussion Thread
- Thread starter GingerBeerMan
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This report is from the 23 of January, over a month ago.
It quotes - Out of the 571 cases, 95 cases ares severely ill
Where's comical Ali when you need him?
Kalimantan Gull
Well-known member
and it doesn't seem to be spreading there.... a few cases of transmission, but if it was like Korea or Italy it would likely be over a 1,000 now considering how long the first cases were there.
Thailand and Vietnam were the first countries outside China to report cases, and nothing since.....
Horton's halftime iceberg
Blooming Marvellous
Wow I should buy myself one of those laser thermometers and get rich.
Kalimantan Gull
Well-known member
ahem, point of order, viruses not considered to be living by most scientists ....
the gene can of course mutate - but it is far more likely to mutate at this stage to be more contagious, rather than to be less deadly. Its not killing people very quickly, so there isn't much selection pressure to be more benign. The selection pressure is mainly on its ability to spread from person to person, and to stay viable outside the human host.
dingodan
New member
- Feb 16, 2011
- 10,080
That may have been his opinion over a month ago, but this is what he said yesterday:
"The world looks to be teetering on the edge of a coronavirus (or severe acute respiratory coronavirus 2/SARS-CoV-2) pandemic that will be extremely hard for the world to contain."
"There remains no vaccine nor specific antiviral drugs against the coronavirus that emerged in humans from animals at the very end of 2019 in the central Chinese city of Wuhan. Since early December, nearly 80,000 cases have been confirmed globally (most of which are in China) leading to nearly 3,000 deaths as the virus has spread to nearly 30 countries across the world."
3,000 out of 80,000 is not 1%. As you say, some may have had it and not reported it, but also there will be those who contracted it, but have not yet survived it, and others who have died from it never made it to hospital or got diagnosed.
I'm not sure how anyone could confidently state that the mortality rate is 1%.
Just a small pedantic point - the virus doesn't want to stay alive. Viruses don't want for anything. They live, they spread, mutate, and die. It's simply that when the some of the virus mutates to something less deadly, it survives and spreads more.
Soylent Blue
Banned
- Mar 13, 2019
- 195
There are lots of reasons for varying outcomes. Singapore is a very socially autocratic country, on the outbreak they went overkill on tracking people down "checking friends of friends of friends". Thailand has had reasonable success as most of its cases are Chinese as there are a lot of Chinese in Thailand.
Iran worries me a lot as its main Religious hub was infected and that could spread all over the place by pilgrims. Africa has over a million Chinese but only 6 labs for testing for the Virus on the whole continent. Also the Syria conflict has left disjointed people in many refugee camps. This could or probably will be a disaster for them
Its very difficult to know if China (who ddint help my conspirational mind by putting that lab on 666 Gaoxin Road) are trustworthy either. Nobody trust anything they say normally, I'm not sure why you would now. I could easily see them downplay the number of infected or dead, they must be desperate to get export, tourism, production etc going.
Horton's halftime iceberg
Blooming Marvellous
It's what he said on my radio this morning
Horton's halftime iceberg
Blooming Marvellous
This is what I have read over the years, successful bugs tend to follow this pattern.
Did you ask where he's getting the 1% from? Because it doesn't seem to correlate with official figures.
Which pattern, the one I wrote?
cloud
Well-known member
This is the best infographic I've seen so far: https://www.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6
cloud
Well-known member
There's also going to Mecca
portlock seagull
Well-known member
- Jul 28, 2003
- 17,761
Is it a pandemic yet? WHO doesn’t seem to think so. In other words, take a leaf out your ancestors book I.e. keep calm and carry on. You can drive yourself crazy with unnecessary fear otherwise.
The WHO don't classify any viruses as pandemics any more.
What? That sounds extremely weird.. you got any source for this?
Apparently their spokesman said:
Got a feeling inside (Can't explain)
It's a certain kind (Can't explain)
I feel hot and cold (Can't explain)
Yeah, down in my soul, yeah (Can't explain)