Main Coronavirus / Covid-19 Discussion Thread

[Triggaaar]

It's coming here whether we like it or not, hope I'm wrong thou.

It's already here

 

[Notters]

Populations build immunity as well. I hate the Keep Calm signs but in this case its really Keep Calm Carry on and wash your hands, do not sneeze or cough on people. At Sheffield away on Saturday I have never seen as many men at a football game wash their hands and germs away as there.

I noticed that too, there was almost a bundle over the hand towels (which were also in abundant supply).

Having said that probably still only about a 10% hand washing rate!

 

[Triggaaar]

Just seen the footage of the press conference given yesterday by Iran’s Deputy Health Minister, where he stood in front of the gathered media and insisted the outbreak was minor and under control.

Poor bloke looked sweaty and unwell throughout.

Today, he just tested positive for Coronavirus.

Wait, that's not actually a joke

 

[Thunder Bolt]

It's already here

As of 24 February, a total of 6,536 people have been tested in the UK, of which 6,527 were confirmed negative and 9 positive. These figures do not include the 4 confirmed cases from the Diamond Princess cruise ship who arrived in the UK and received test results from Japan. These will be included once we receive the UK tests for these patients.

https://www.gov.uk/guidance/wuhan-novel-coronavirus-information-for-the-public



Nobody has died in the UK. NINE (9) positive despite having come into contact with people who may have had the virus so therefore 6527 people have tested negative.

 

[CHAPPERS]

Iran not exactly covering themselves in glory these past few months.

 

[Triggaaar]

The Covid -19 has a 99% survival rate

Where are you getting this information?

 

[Lyndhurst 14]

After the World Health Organization the CDC based in Atlanta is normally seen as the second line of defence in outbreaks such as this.

So hopefully Trump will now reverse the $750 million in cuts that was proposed in the latest budget review.

 

[dingodan]

Once viruses are classed as pandemics, humans/authorities stop the containment phase - this phase often sees it blow out. It is currently a long way from that, the last flu pandemic was the Hong Kong flu in the late sixtys that killed about 1 million world wide.

This is nothing compared to the Spanish Flu a hundred years ago that killed about 500 million people.

Most of us would have had flu/coronovirus which their are hundreds off and about three strains have done the rounds in the last year or two. This is when they become endemic i.e common within the population.

The ones most of us have had have a 99.9% survival rate. The Covid -19 has a 99% survival rate and is not in anyway endemic or pandemic yet. Most deaths are elderly people 75 plus. Measles (due to non vaccine supporters, strokes, liver diesease etc etc are far more likely to kill us right now.

Populations build immunity as well. I hate the Keep Calm signs but in this case its really Keep Calm Carry on and wash your hands, do not sneeze or cough on people. At Sheffield away on Saturday I have never seen as many men at a football game wash their hands and germs away as there.

As far as I can tell, it has roughly a 97%+ survival rate.

As long as you consider everyone who has not died yet as a survivor. For example in Hubei there have been approx 2.5k deaths out of 64k cases, which is actually a fatality rate of almost 4%. But only approx 19k have recovered. So looking at cases with an outcome, it's 2.5k deaths, and 19k recovered. That means 21.5k cases with a resolution of which fatalities makes up 11.5%+.

In Italy 7 deaths out of 283 cases is 2.5%, which seems pretty low. But there has been only 1 recovery so far. If everyone else recovers then Italy's fatality rate can be considered to be around 2.5%. What are the chances that the remaining 275 cases will all end in recovery? Hopefully, but it seems unlikely.

You also have to consider the number of people becoming seriously ill. The official figures from China put that number between 20-25%. If we have a serious outbreak effecting large numbers of people then the fatality rate is likely to increase as those people who would have survived given critical care in an ICU may not survive quarantined at home due to a shortage of hospital capacity.

Panic certainly won't be of any help to anyone, but I wouldn't recommend complacency or denial either.

 

[peterward]

Depends when the Italian who has it arrived.

Fellow British guest in the hotel is quoted by the BBC as saying the Italian Dr has been there 6 days before falling ill and being diagnosed. It does the all inclusive meal thing and during which time 100's of guests who were there at the same time as the infected Dr have since left and flown back all over Europe.

 

[vegster]

Or the summer to arrive (which will come around much quicker than any vaccine)

Looking at the current climate, I think we are hanging on for that vaccine.

 

[pb21]

Fellow British guest in the hotel is quoted by the BBC as saying the Italian Dr has been there 6 days before falling ill and being diagnosed. It does the all inclusive meal thing and during which time 100's of guests who were there at the same time as the infected Dr have since left and flown back all over Europe.

Marvelous!

 

[Horton's halftime iceberg]

Where are you getting this information?

Connor Bamford Virologists at Queens College Belfast. States that it may be lower due to us not knowing how many people have had it, recovered so not reported it.

 

[Pondicherry]

We haven't yet seen the virus spreading in hot countries, I just checked the weather for Qom in Iran where the outbreak is, highs of 14, night time temperatures down to 1 degree. Iran is mountainous and can be chilly in the winter

Singapore temperatures are in the 30's at the moment.

 

[banjo]

Is it actually worth all the hype Asking for a friend.

 

[Pondicherry]

Looking at the current climate, I think we are hanging on for that vaccine.

A vaccine is a minimum 12 months away and then you have to add in the manufacturing capacity to produce the vaccine. Also be aware that attempts to produce a SARS vaccine (a coronavirus relative) were not ultimately successful because the immunity produced by the vaccine (given to mice) produced an adverse immune reaction when the mice were exposed to the virus again (due to complex biological reasons around how the virus attaches to cells). Producing a vaccine is likely to be complex and will require extensive trial periods i believe.

 

[Horton's halftime iceberg]

You also have to consider the number of people becoming seriously ill. The official figures from China put that number between 20-25%. If we have a serious outbreak effecting large numbers of people then the fatality rate is likely to increase as those people who would have survived given critical care in an ICU may not survive quarantined at home due to a shortage of hospital capacity.

Panic certainly won't be of any help to anyone, but I wouldn't recommend complacency or denial either.

What are you quoting, China has a population of over 1.3 billion people, it has 77.5k cases of the worlds total cases of just over 80K. Of which just over 2K are classed as seriously ill. Even if you are talking about 20% of Wuhans population that is about 8 million, 2K odd serious cases does not equate to 20 to 25%!

Spanish flu infected over 500 million people once it started in France and that was a quarter of the worlds population. That developed in French 1st world world trenches that were shared with pigs and chickens. It spread through terrible hygiene practices. Like a lot of these pathogens it mutated to far less deadly strain as the virus wants to stay alive itself. We have far better practices and knowledge today, hence why the majority of people who have died so far are the elderly or people with weakened immune systems, especially before a vaccine is developed, although I read that blood transfused from survivors to sufferer's have been quite effective.

We have had 13 cases in the UK, the majority in Brighton. The infectious Doctor was in the Grenadier Pub in Hangleton, went to Yoga in Hove and went to places around Hollinbury. Tracing teams checked all contact, people self isolated anyone diagnosed was hospitalised. All have shown no symptons or recovered.

Why are you talking about Panic, denial and complacency.

 

[DumLum]

Wait, that's not actually a joke

BBC have quoted the President of Iran saying everything will be normal by Saturday.

 

[Horton's halftime iceberg]

BBC have quoted the President of Iran saying everything will be normal by Saturday.

 

[dingodan]

What are you quoting, China has a population of over 1.3 billion people, it has 77.5k cases of the worlds total cases of just over 80K. Of which just over 2K are classed as seriously ill. Even if you are talking about 20% of Wuhans population that is about 8 million, 2K odd serious cases does not equate to 20 to 25%!

Spanish flu infected over 500 million people once it started in France and that was a quarter of the worlds population. That developed in French 1st world world trenches that were shared with pigs and chickens. It spread through terrible hygiene practices. Like a lot of these pathogens it mutated to far less deadly strain as the virus wants to stay alive itself. We have far better practices and knowledge today, hence why the majority of people who have died so far are the elderly or people with weakened immune systems, especially before a vaccine is developed, although I read that blood transfused from survivors to sufferer's have been quite effective.

We have had 13 cases in the UK, the majority in Brighton. The infectious Doctor was in the Grenadier Pub in Hangleton, went to Yoga in Hove and went to places around Hollinbury. Tracing teams checked all contact, people self isolated anyone diagnosed was hospitalised. All have shown no symptons or recovered.

Why are you talking about Panic, denial and complacency.

20-25% of cases are serious.

"Twenty five percent of confirmed cases reported by China have been classified by Chinese health authorities as seriously ill (fromWubei Province: (16% severely ill, 5% critically ill, and 4% having died)."

https://www.who.int/docs/default-so...ation-reports/20200123-sitrep-3-2019-ncov.pdf
(date: 23rd Jan)

 

[DumLum]

Would you do the responsible thing and get tested in the USA?
$1400 according to Twitter.