Main Coronavirus / Covid-19 Discussion Thread

[Triggaaar]

Japan Olympics are also in doubt, imagine the cost Japan has outlayed for the infrastructure, stadiums and hotels, etc, all to waste.

You'd think it would be postponed, rather than cancelled forever.

 

[Dave the OAP]

I assume that this will be short lived in Europe as the common flu season is normally gone by spring when the days warm up and the virus die off.

Of course when it all kicks back in, during autumn, there will be a inoculation

I get a free flu one every year due to my taking warfarin and BP tablets, so it may just be an addition to that.

Its interesting that Tenerife is hit at the moment as it is pretty warm there at the moment!

 

[Brian Fantana]

I assume that this will be short lived in Europe as the common flu season is normally gone by spring when the days warm up and the virus die off.

Of course when it all kicks back in, during autumn, there will be a inoculation

I get a free flu one every year due to my taking warfarin and BP tablets, so it may just be an addition to that.

Its interesting that Tenerife is hit at the moment as it is pretty warm there at the moment!

There's an awful lot of assumptions in there.

The chances of there being a vaccine widely available for this virus by the time of the autumn is INCREDIBLY slim. It's not just a new strain of flu that can be bundled in with the annual flu jab that gets put together.

Creating, testing, getting approval, manufacturing in enough volumes and distributing worldwide is something that generally takes years. They're ahead of the game seemingly with this virus, but I still wouldn't imagine there'll be anything widely until well into next year.

As for the virus dying when the weather warms up, that's really something that's not known at the moment.

 

[dingodan]

I assume that this will be short lived in Europe as the common flu season is normally gone by spring when the days warm up and the virus die off.

Of course when it all kicks back in, during autumn, there will be a inoculation

I get a free flu one every year due to my taking warfarin and BP tablets, so it may just be an addition to that.

Its interesting that Tenerife is hit at the moment as it is pretty warm there at the moment!

"Figure 4 shows the total numbers of SARS patients compared with the mean maximum temperature before the date of the SARS onset and we found that 94.6% of the total SARS cases in the four cities were clustered within the mean maximum temperature range 16°C–28°C and with the peak number at 19°C, so we can guess that mean maximum temperature 16°C–28°C may be the optimal temperature for SARS prevalence."

https://jech.bmj.com/content/59/3/186

 

[Surport Local Team]

May be, but a concern is out of 671 cases on diamond princes only 4 deaths. Italy's rate seems very high 332 cases 11 deaths? If the princess had the same mortality rate, then about 22 would have died instead of 4!?

 

[Triggaaar]

I assume that this will be short lived in Europe as the common flu season is normally gone by spring when the days warm up and the virus die off.
...
Its interesting that Tenerife is hit at the moment as it is pretty warm there at the moment!

It's not like there are many cases in Tenerife, it's just that someone who had the virus went to a hotel there, and people he was with have now also got it. It's not spread across the island. And part of the reason that flu spreads more in winter is that we're indoors more, sharing the same space, which is what some of these Italian holidaymakers are doing.

 

[Triggaaar]

May be, but a concern is out of 671 cases on diamond princes only 4 deaths. Italy's rate seems very high 332 cases 11 deaths? If the princess had the same mortality rate, then about 22 would have died instead of 4!?

Has everyone (except the 4 deaths) who had the virus on the ship, now recovered?

It could be that the Italian numbers aren't accurate (total number of cases), or that it's an elderly area, or that people didn't get the treatment they needed, or a combination of these things.

 

[dingodan]

May be, but a concern is out of 671 cases on diamond princes only 4 deaths. Italy's rate seems very high 332 cases 11 deaths? If the princess had the same mortality rate, then about 22 would have died instead of 4!?

Perhaps the reason is that more people have the virus in Italy than have currently been identified.

Positive because it means the death rate is not as high as the Italy figures suggest.

Negative because it means the risk of further spread is much higher.

11/332 cases doesn't seem that strange though, it's 3-4%, which is roughly the fatality rate in China.

According to the Lancet (Jan 24th): "the overall case fatality proportion appears to be closer to 3% (table). However, both of these estimates should be treated with great caution because not all patients have concluded their illness (ie, recovered or died) and the true number of infections and full disease spectrum are unknown."

https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(20)30185-9/fulltext#tbl1

 

[Deleted member 22389]

May be, but a concern is out of 671 cases on diamond princes only 4 deaths. Italy's rate seems very high 332 cases 11 deaths? If the princess had the same mortality rate, then about 22 would have died instead of 4!?

Lots of pensioners in Italy, hence the numbers. All the people have been in their 70's and 80's. People also live very close to each other in these small villages, that makes the virus much easier to spread.

 

[Surport Local Team]

Has everyone (except the 4 deaths) who had the virus on the ship, now recovered?

It could be that the Italian numbers aren't accurate (total number of cases), or that it's an elderly area, or that people didn't get the treatment they needed, or a combination of these things.

Let's hope it's one of those and not the virus in Italy is a more deadly version

 

[Triggaaar]

Let's hope it's one of those and not the virus in Italy is a more deadly version

Is the latter even possible? I wouldn't have thought a virus could mutate into something more lethal that quickly.

 

[Notters]

"Figure 4 shows the total numbers of SARS patients compared with the mean maximum temperature before the date of the SARS onset and we found that 94.6% of the total SARS cases in the four cities were clustered within the mean maximum temperature range 16°C–28°C and with the peak number at 19°C, so we can guess that mean maximum temperature 16°C–28°C may be the optimal temperature for SARS prevalence."

https://jech.bmj.com/content/59/3/186

So the peak temp is the same as the average summer temp in Leeds, great! From what I've read and understand it's as much to do with moisture as temperature anyway, with the viruses preferring dry conditions (prevalent in a lot of countries in the winter due to freezing temperatures though not so much in the UK), whereas rainfall washes the virus out of the air.

Is the latter even possible? I wouldn't have thought a virus could mutate into something more lethal that quickly.

Surely the mutation happens in one individual and could therefore happen very rapidly (or very slowly). [MENTION=805]Kalimantan Gull[/MENTION] seems to know more!

 

[Triggaaar]

Surely the mutation happens in one individual and could therefore happen very rapidly (or very slowly). [MENTION=805]Kalimantan Gull[/MENTION] seems to know more!

Each time a virus multiplies, there's the potential for it to change/mutate. But it takes multiple mutations for the virus to change much, and I'm wondering how quickly it can change from a virus that kills a low percentage of people, to one that kills a high percentage of people. I don't know the answer, I'm just guessing it's not that fast.

 

[dingodan]

So the peak temp is the same as the average summer temp in Leeds, great! From what I've read and understand it's as much to do with moisture as temperature anyway, with the viruses preferring dry conditions (prevalent in a lot of countries in the winter due to freezing temperatures though not so much in the UK), whereas rainfall washes the virus out of the air.

Yes, although note, that graphic is for SARS, but the two are considered to be very similar.

 

[Cian]

At least with the 6 Nations, you can just cancel the Italy games, without affecting the integrity of the competition. Just award all their intended opponents the bonus point win, they'd inevitably have racked up.

(Fortunately they've already played Scotland, as that one would have been a little harder to call...)

The Ireland-Italy game (and the womens and U20s games too) has been called officially now.

 

[portlock seagull]

Let’s all panic. That helps.

 

[studio150]

Let’s all panic. That helps.

Totally over the top all this panic and forcing people to stay at home, and cancelling sporting events.
I just wonder how people are going to get on in the snow comes, as a double panic will send them into a tizzy. Go to a crowded supermarket to stock up with 83 tins of soup as the snow is coming, but face the possibility of getting some flu like germs.
(Yes I know about home deliveries, but the drivers will probably have been told to self isolate)

 

[Swansman]

First confirmed case in my city, Gothenburg...

The person had been visiting in Italy and three days after coming home he or her started to feel sick. Considering how much travel is done with public transport here, it doesnt feel too promising.

One of my neighbours got an Italian surname and has been coughing for several days, but havent heard anything today. I prefer it not to be him.

This is one of the cases where I would Swedish media to be a bit more lenient about releasing names... not because it would be the right thing to do, but because it would be valuable to know exactly where in the city this person live.

 

[Change at Barnham]

I'm surprised the teenagers haven't started claiming they feel ill and need to self-quarantine, staying away from school.

 

[Soylent Blue]

May be, but a concern is out of 671 cases on diamond princes only 4 deaths. Italy's rate seems very high 332 cases 11 deaths? If the princess had the same mortality rate, then about 22 would have died instead of 4!?

So far of the ships passangers 705 infected out of about 3,800 crew and passangers, about 20%.. 4 dead 0.6% and 1 recovered. Dont have the numbers for critical.

https://covid19info.live/