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Main Coronavirus / Covid-19 Discussion Thread







Triggaaar

Well-known member
Oct 24, 2005
53,076
Goldstone
I love a stat but they confirmed what I was thinking. We actually have no stats for how many people have been killed by the virus.

We have the number of people who have died and tested positive. Which doesn't necessarily mean that it was the virus that killed them.
Accurately estimating the number of people who have died because of the virus, rather than with the virus, is an issue for all countries. Although we are counting the latter at the moment, it does still provide some information for the former. So if our current number for people who have died with the virus is 1,408, then the number of people who have been killed by the virus is no more than that.

We could obviously do with a method of providing a more accurate estimate across different countries, but I don't know if that can be achieved.

Just wondering off the top of my head if the doctors on duty, at the time of a patient's death, should note whether they thing the patient would have died anyway within the next (for example) 6 months. Then two numbers could be reported - those that died due to CV, and those that died with CV.
 
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LlcoolJ

Mama said knock you out.
Oct 14, 2009
12,982
Sheffield
Accurately estimating the number of people who have died because of the virus, rather than with the virus, is an issue for all countries. Although we are counting the latter at the moment, it does still provide some information for the former. So if our current number for people who have died with the virus is 1,408, then the number of people who have been killed by the virus is no more than that.

We could obviously do with a method of providing a more accurate estimate across different countries, but I don't know if that can be achieved.
Yes exactly. I can't see how anyone can work that one out.
 








dazzer6666

Well-known member
NSC Patron
Mar 27, 2013
55,511
Burgess Hill
Was talking to my neighbours who are both nurses on the neurological ward earlier about the stats.

I love a stat but they confirmed what I was thinking. We actually have no stats for how many people have been killed by the virus.

We have the number of people who have died and tested positive. Which doesn't necessarily mean that it was the virus that killed them.

I also hate it when things are unquantifiable. Unfortunately this whole thing is at the moment.

Definitely the case....my daughter’s ward are all high-dependency elderly patients, they average maybe 2-3 deaths a week. Several patients are covid+ve now but numbers dying haven’t increased (yet). Those that have died (if tested +ve) are now part of the covid stats which are ‘with’ rather than definitely ‘of’.......
 






sparkie

Well-known member
Jul 17, 2003
13,264
Hove
As said previously when this was originally mentioned the suggestion at the conference was that it wasnt a massive number. Time will tell
It depends.

As a daily number, maybe not, but do they add the cumulative backlog in a single hit to the figures?

3 weeks at 10 per day, means a sudden 210 added onto the daily total.
 


The Wizard

Well-known member
Jul 2, 2009
18,399
I’m not sure if they are including everyone who has died at home/not in hospital prior to the last time period or if it will be everyone who has tested positive and died outside of hospital since the outbreak? Hopefully when they release the numbers they can make sure they clarify as to not cause hysteria. I can already imagine the scaremongering papers desperate for clicks. :rolleyes:

It could be around a 20% increase based on initial figures, on March the 20th the official NHS numbers were 177 but the official death certificate number is 210, a 24% increase.
 




Beach Hut

Brighton Bhuna Boy
Jul 5, 2003
72,311
Living In a Box
849 deaths recorded in Spain last 24 hours
 




bhafc99

Well-known member
Oct 14, 2003
7,453
Dubai






The Wizard

Well-known member
Jul 2, 2009
18,399
It will be our turn soon.

Not necessarily, there are many factors why Spain and Italy have been massively hit by this horrible virus. As much as it is possible we could head down a similar path, please be careful because people are feeling very anxious and I don’t think saying it will be our turn soon is particularly nice, nobody knows that.
 


Driver8

On the road...
NSC Patron
Jul 31, 2005
16,210
North Wales
Not necessarily, there are many factors why Spain and Italy have been massively hit by this horrible virus. As much as it is possible we could head down a similar path, please be careful because people are feeling very anxious and I don’t think saying it will be our turn soon is particularly nice, nobody knows that.

Fingers crossed we don’t but we do seem to be following a similar course.
 








oddsonlaughter

New member
Jan 24, 2008
249
Just to add the weekly updated stats - All respiratory deaths 3rd recorded week in March:

Week up to March 20th 2020- 1617 ( including 103 where Covid 19 mentioned on death certificate )
Week up to March 15th 2019 - 1559
Week up to March 16th 2018- 2271

Total Deaths up 72 on 5 year average

I am expecting a spike but are these figures encouraging especially as we are down on mid March on the 2018 figure and in range with total death averages for the week of the year
 


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