[News] Johnson’s fumbling and lying could be about to get very dangerous indeed…

[Lower West Stander]

I haven't read the whole thread as been working.

is the gist of what's being discussed that there is going to be a nuclear war?

 

[Dick Swiveller]

Great story, if only it were true. Oman

Knowing Bojo as we do, he probably did a deal with Richard Osman

 

[pb21]

thats a year out of date. the pipeline was completed last September https://www.euronews.com/2021/09/10...mpleted-but-ukraine-pledges-to-continue-fight

Ah yes, well spotted, thought this was from last year. However the article (and others on this website) does point to it being very likely (IMO, I think a reasonable one) that there is more than internal German/EU internal politics preventing it from 'turned-on'.

 

[A1X]

It's a shame to see the usual petty squabbles not just on here but in Westminster about this. I firmly believe that the current Ukraine situation poses the biggest threat to peace in Europe since the Balkans war, and quite probably since the end of the Cold War.

Putin is not reckless, but he is calculated, ruthless and will stop at nothing to achieve his ends. He is, quite probably, the most dangerous man in the world at this time. I don't believe he would start a nuclear conflict over this. I suspect this is a grandstanding effort to persuade the west to back down / concede something to him, at which point he can then (through his puppets in neighbouring states such as Belarus and Poland) seek to paint the west as weak and unable to defend their interests, and maybe their populations would be better served suckling at the Moscow teat instead of the Brussels / Washington one.

Putin is not some crazy ex-solider type who believes the answer to everything is war, and the bigger the war the better (in the way, say, Adolf Hitler did). He's much more about creeping power through the backdoor, cynically manipulating outcomes in his favour. It's much more in the Josef Stalin mould. The only times Putin ahs actually gone to war has been in far away places the west cannot keep such easy tabs on, or has no real strategic interest in keeping tabs on (e.g. Georgia). The annexation of Crimea is the only real exception to this rule, and even this was a calculated gamble that the west would not kick up too much of a fuss about it (and, as he predicted, they haven't). His primary concern is playing to his own "electorate" (in his rigged, quasi-democracy) as the strong man of Russia, a trope the Russians even now can't seem to get away from.

But Putin also knows time is against him. He himself is aging (and has no obvious successor). The USA is no longer likely to be reliant on the Soyuz space programme to reach the ISS going forward. Europe is increasingly backing renewable energy and making strong noises about removing reliance on gas, oil and coal. These are major revenue hits for a Russian economy which is already in the toilet, and if things go badly at home the Russians don't tend to be forgiving on their leaders no matter how beloved they think they are. I worry we're likely to see ever more desperate plays as he and Russia try to remain relevant and in power as the rise of China threatens their cosy position at the top of the global food chain (alongside the EU and USA). This could well be just the start.

 

[zefarelly]

I haven't read the whole thread as been working.

is the gist of what's being discussed that there is going to be a nuclear war?

Nah, the arms companies won't like that, they only sell one or two

traditional incendiary devices are far more lucrative.

 

[Machiavelli]

Tbf absolutely nothing happened under Donald Trump so maybe you're right. On the other hand I'm not sure it was some kind of elaborate strategy.

Those opposing Trump said "holy shit he got the power and will turn everything into crazy chaos and we're all doomed" while his fans said "he's going to save the country, make America great again, change society to the better"... in the end, **** all happened. Four years of nothing.

It says a lot that a couple of thousand bearded incels made a half-arsed "storming" of the Capitol building is the most talked about event in regards of his rule.

Broadly you're right but one thing that did happen in those Trump years is that Putin took advantage of the void Trump created.

 

[Machiavelli]

It's a shame to see the usual petty squabbles not just on here but in Westminster about this. I firmly believe that the current Ukraine situation poses the biggest threat to peace in Europe since the Balkans war, and quite probably since the end of the Cold War.

Putin is not reckless, but he is calculated, ruthless and will stop at nothing to achieve his ends. He is, quite probably, the most dangerous man in the world at this time. I don't believe he would start a nuclear conflict over this. I suspect this is a grandstanding effort to persuade the west to back down / concede something to him, at which point he can then (through his puppets in neighbouring states such as Belarus and Poland) seek to paint the west as weak and unable to defend their interests, and maybe their populations would be better served suckling at the Moscow teat instead of the Brussels / Washington one.

Putin is not some crazy ex-solider type who believes the answer to everything is war, and the bigger the war the better (in the way, say, Adolf Hitler did). He's much more about creeping power through the backdoor, cynically manipulating outcomes in his favour. It's much more in the Josef Stalin mould. The only times Putin ahs actually gone to war has been in far away places the west cannot keep such easy tabs on, or has no real strategic interest in keeping tabs on (e.g. Georgia). The annexation of Crimea is the only real exception to this rule, and even this was a calculated gamble that the west would not kick up too much of a fuss about it (and, as he predicted, they haven't). His primary concern is playing to his own "electorate" (in his rigged, quasi-democracy) as the strong man of Russia, a trope the Russians even now can't seem to get away from.

But Putin also knows time is against him. He himself is aging (and has no obvious successor). The USA is no longer likely to be reliant on the Soyuz space programme to reach the ISS going forward. Europe is increasingly backing renewable energy and making strong noises about removing reliance on gas, oil and coal. These are major revenue hits for a Russian economy which is already in the toilet, and if things go badly at home the Russians don't tend to be forgiving on their leaders no matter how beloved they think they are. I worry we're likely to see ever more desperate plays as he and Russia try to remain relevant and in power as the rise of China threatens their cosy position at the top of the global food chain (alongside the EU and USA). This could well be just the start.

Decent analysis.

 

[Kuipers Supporters Club]

So you haven't changed the location on your twitter feed to actually see what is trending in Ukraine, but believe without question the tweets from Darren Grimes,

A simple factcheck would expose his propaganda

I actually got it from the New Statesman's International Editor.

You know, that massive right wing paper ...

 

[Kuipers Supporters Club]

Broadly you're right but one thing that did happen in those Trump years is that Putin took advantage of the void Trump created.

Putin invaded Ukraine under Obama , he did not do it under Trump.

 

[rogersix]

I expect Putin would be pleased that many on here are more interested in scoring domestic party political points rather than focusing on the real villain.

Someone will be along in a minute claiming this is what we voted for in 2016 [emoji1787]




Sent from my SM-G970F using Tapatalk

you did vote for an imbecile

 

[Whitley Bayster]

Has he asked Sue Grey to intervene yet?

 

[cunning fergus]

The gas pipeline was commissioned over 10 years ago, the predicted need for the gas is accurate but I don't think the people who approved the pipeline could anticipate what Putin has become in that time. Yes, it obviously could be used to blackmail the West but the need was there and no one could see Putin moving the goalposts in order to become dictator for life.

I don’t think that’s right?

The US and EU (when we were in it) started sanctions in 2013, and operating/construction tenders etc. were not filed till 2015, with construction starting in 2018?

As for those involved not knowing about Putin, he’s been about since the 90s in various capacities, and it’s not like western political leaders didn’t know him, the chairman of NordStream is Gerard Schroeder……..

https://www.gazprom.com/press/news/2021/june/article529987/

 

[pb21]

I firmly believe that the current Ukraine situation poses the biggest threat to peace in Europe since the Balkans war, and quite probably since the end of the Cold War.

Unfortunately I think you're right with this. He has been playing the long game all along, and to be fair to him, he has played it well so far; lots of pieces set up. A divided EU/US, a continent largely dependant on him for power (at least in the short-term), destabilised neighbours (some in his pocket), an established disinformation network, a sympathetic ally in China, all the while essentially getting away with more and more...

Will he keep turning the screw? Ultimately what does he want?

 

[Harry Wilson's tackle]

It's a shame to see the usual petty squabbles not just on here but in Westminster about this. I firmly believe that the current Ukraine situation poses the biggest threat to peace in Europe since the Balkans war, and quite probably since the end of the Cold War.

Putin is not reckless, but he is calculated, ruthless and will stop at nothing to achieve his ends. He is, quite probably, the most dangerous man in the world at this time. I don't believe he would start a nuclear conflict over this. I suspect this is a grandstanding effort to persuade the west to back down / concede something to him, at which point he can then (through his puppets in neighbouring states such as Belarus and Poland) seek to paint the west as weak and unable to defend their interests, and maybe their populations would be better served suckling at the Moscow teat instead of the Brussels / Washington one.

Putin is not some crazy ex-solider type who believes the answer to everything is war, and the bigger the war the better (in the way, say, Adolf Hitler did). He's much more about creeping power through the backdoor, cynically manipulating outcomes in his favour. It's much more in the Josef Stalin mould. The only times Putin ahs actually gone to war has been in far away places the west cannot keep such easy tabs on, or has no real strategic interest in keeping tabs on (e.g. Georgia). The annexation of Crimea is the only real exception to this rule, and even this was a calculated gamble that the west would not kick up too much of a fuss about it (and, as he predicted, they haven't). His primary concern is playing to his own "electorate" (in his rigged, quasi-democracy) as the strong man of Russia, a trope the Russians even now can't seem to get away from.

But Putin also knows time is against him. He himself is aging (and has no obvious successor). The USA is no longer likely to be reliant on the Soyuz space programme to reach the ISS going forward. Europe is increasingly backing renewable energy and making strong noises about removing reliance on gas, oil and coal. These are major revenue hits for a Russian economy which is already in the toilet, and if things go badly at home the Russians don't tend to be forgiving on their leaders no matter how beloved they think they are. I worry we're likely to see ever more desperate plays as he and Russia try to remain relevant and in power as the rise of China threatens their cosy position at the top of the global food chain (alongside the EU and USA). This could well be just the start.

Excellent analysis. Putin's background is secret service.

 

[TimWatt]

Unfortunately I think you're right with this. He has been playing the long game all along, and to be fair to him, he has played it well so far; lots of pieces set up. A divided EU/US, a continent largely dependant on him for power (at least in the short-term), destabilised neighbours (some in his pocket), an established disinformation network, a sympathetic ally in China, all the while essentially getting away with more and more...

Will he keep turning the screw? Ultimately what does he want?

Putin is shallow and obvious; he's no genius he wants more of this:

Purported leaked photos of the strip club, opulent theater, and bathroom inside Putin's alleged secret palace

 

[KZNSeagull]

I heard a chap on the radio today saying that ultimately Putin is scared about Nato expansion. During the cold war the USSR/USA could not attack each other as the nuclear option meant mutually assured destruction. If Nato expands he is worried that the US will base missiles on Russia's border that will shoot down his nukes thereby nullifying the threat of destroying the US if they attacked Russia. Dunno how true that is but it is an interesting angle.

 

[Danny Wilson Said]

My theory, based on no actual knowledge except that it fits the facts:

1. Johnson's Russian paymasters have given him inside info that there will be no invasion.

2. Johnson gets to talk tough on TV and 'warn' Russia of the consequences of an invasion.

3. There is no invasion.

4. Johnson claims credit for personally preventing an invasion by standing up to Russia,

5. Johnson's popularity soars and he survives the vote of confidence that follows publication of the Sue Gray report.

6. Moscow keeps its useful idiot in 10 Downing Street.

 

[A1X]

Unfortunately I think you're right with this. He has been playing the long game all along, and to be fair to him, he has played it well so far; lots of pieces set up. A divided EU/US, a continent largely dependant on him for power (at least in the short-term), destabilised neighbours (some in his pocket), an established disinformation network, a sympathetic ally in China, all the while essentially getting away with more and more...

Will he keep turning the screw? Ultimately what does he want?

The same as all corrupt leaders, power and money. He’d love nothing more than to be seen as the kingpin of Eastern Europe.

 

[Eric the meek]

Putin is concerned for Russian security. If Ukraine were to join NATO, then it would bring NATO weapons to the Russian border. This is why Putin is demanding Ukraine should never join NATO, and he's doing it from a position of strength as he perceives it, moving units to the Ukraine border, seeming to threaten an invasion without actually making that threat and insisting he will not invade.

Two observations if I may.

First, we British are very good at surveillance. I was astonished - and highly impressed - that we know the names of the individuals that Putin would like to install in Kiev, in a Moscow-friendly regime. I don't know why we went public with this information, unless it was to make it clear to Putin that we have the capability to listen in, presumably including during an invasion. We would presumably have already made our allies aware of that information.

Second, spare a thought for Ukrainians right now, living in fear of the Russian bear. I can't imagine how they must be feeling.

 

[A1X]

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