[Politics] Jacinda Arden

[sydney]

they've achieved more good in two years than our shower of shit government have in 10

and she's bald as a coot...

 

[Is it PotG?]

Minor outbreak announced

https://news.sky.com/story/coronavirus-breaks-out-again-in-new-zealand-after-102-days-12047011

 

[Bladders]

My mate says she’s shithouse


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

 

[Poojah]

Minor outbreak announced

https://news.sky.com/story/coronavirus-breaks-out-again-in-new-zealand-after-102-days-12047011

Not f**king about with their response though:

Local residents are being told by Ms Ardern to "stay home to stop the spread" of the disease and "act as if you have COVID, and as if the people around you have COVID".

Those in Auckland are being urged to work from home and only leave their houses for "essential movements" such as going to the supermarket or local park.

Schools and nurseries will close to pupils apart from the children of key workers, while gatherings of more than ten people will be restricted.

Bars and restaurants are also being told to close, while travel into and out of Auckland will be restricted to those returning home to the city, or those leaving who live elsewhere.

"As disruptive as it is, a strong and rapid health response remains the best long-term economic response.

"In line with our precautionary approach, we will be asking Aucklanders to take swift action with us."

She added: "These three days will give us time to assess the situation, gather information, make sure we have widespread contact tracing so we can find out more about how this case arose and make decisions on how to respond to it once we have further information."

The rest of New Zealand will be moved to "Level Two" restrictions from midday on Wednesday, Ms Ardern announced.

All that, on the basis of four cases, from one household. Fair play. Short-term pain, long-term gain.

 

[sydney]

pretty sad that an island of 2 million inhabitants is being locked down for the sake of 2 people .......this virus will mutate so if we get it in 3 years it will probably kill more ...just saying

 

[Poojah]

pretty sad that an island of 2 million inhabitants is being locked down for the sake of 2 people .......this virus will mutate so if we get it in 3 years it will probably kill more ...just saying

I think you may have misunderstood how human transmissible viruses work. In your defence, there's not been much about it in the news lately...

 

[Ooh it’s a corner]

Swift and decisive response from an empathetic LEADER - admirable and contrasting to others who purport to lead

 

[Simster]

Our problem is very simple. Boris is a lazy, ego-driven, populistic, untruthful, simplistic, rather unpleasant upper class buffoon. He prefers to be shagging rather than working and to cement his power he has appointed a cabinet of untalented sycophants who worship him rather than challenge him. He is also who unduly influenced by one man who has f**ked up big time but seems to have got away with it for the time being. To consolidate this incredibly fragile foundation the electorate, in their wisdom, granted the Tories a massive parliamentary majority, a success they achieved partly because of the absence of any coherent opposition. All at a time when , looking forward, the country now faces the biggest leadership challenges since the second world war (e.g. Brexit, Covid 19, massive worldwide recession) which require strong, intelligent and bold leadership. Jacinda Ardern is the polar opposite to BJ and is precisely the kind of leader required for these times.

Exactly this.

New Zealand had an easier job than the UK wrt Covid 19 for sure. I'd just rather we'd had Adern in charge as we all know it would have been handled far far better.

But she would probably have thought it was worth questioning some aspects of Brexit, so the "free press" would have done a job on her and made sure she didn't have a chance of getting in.

 

[Is it PotG?]

I get it now. If a manager does a decent job at Notts County, he'll be a shoo-in for the Man City job.

 

[arewethereyet?]

pretty sad that an island of 2 million inhabitants is being locked down for the sake of 2 people .......this virus will mutate so if we get it in 3 years it will probably kill more ...just saying

Let’s get the figures correct for you,

NZ as a whole has a population of 4.8 million, Auckland has a population of 1.6 million, so that’s cleared up your 2 million figure that you plucked from somewhere and for the sake of 2 people, well it’s actually 4 people with the virus.

 

[highflyer]

I get it now. If a manager does a decent job at Notts County, he'll be a shoo-in for the Man City job.

More along the lines of 'if a manager proves themselves extremely competent, first in the Swedish leagues and then in the championship with (plucking a random name here) a team such as Swansea...then maybe it would be fair to assume that they might be a good bet to do well for a medium sized team with aspirations to get into the top ten in the premier league?

Let's be clear, at the global level the UK is not Man City!

 

[sydney]

having lived there for 3 years in the 80's i would hazard a wild guess that 80% of the population is in Auckland and Wellington....and given the fact the Island has been virtually closed for the last 4 months it's obviously disappointing for them to have been compromised again with this dreadful virus that has a less than a 0.5% mortality rate.

 

[Is it PotG?]

More along the lines of 'if a manager proves themselves extremely competent, first in the Swedish leagues and then in the championship with (plucking a random name here) a team such as Swansea...then maybe it would be fair to assume that they might be a good bet to do well for a medium sized team with aspirations to get into the top ten in the premier league?

Let's be clear, at the global level the UK is not Man City!

Wonderful point, and eloquently put.

I maintain, however, that the demands on a day-to-day basis and the attitudes of the populous are a little different here.

One only needs to see beaches and some bars as evidence of conformity here. I would like to see the NZ boss handle this and get ALL of the nation onside before I praised too much.

 

[Billy the Fish]

Not f**king about with their response though:



All that, on the basis of four cases, from one household. Fair play. Short-term pain, long-term gain.

Can't see what they're gaining from shutting down a whole city because of 4 cases. It's total overkill, they only need to contact trace, they could easily just enforced social distancing for a few days without closing a whole economy. Are they going to hit the panic button every time there's a positive case?

 

[Tom Hark Preston Park]

Can't see what they're gaining from shutting down a whole city because of 4 cases. It's total overkill, they only need to contact trace, they could easily just enforced social distancing for a few days without closing a whole economy. Are they going to hit the panic button every time there's a positive case?

This. Especially as the 4 cases are reportedly from a single family

 

[Uncle C]

disappointing for them to have been compromised again with this dreadful virus that has a less than a 0.5% mortality rate.

Covid cases identified in UK approx 312,000.

Covid deaths in UK approx 46,000.

Thats approx 15%

 

[Kosh]

Covid cases identified in UK approx 312,000.

Covid deaths in UK approx 46,000.

Thats approx 15%

I rather think the word ‘identified’ is key here... the initial failure to test the general population and the shambolic testing procedure in general, not to mention the asymptotic multitude milling about ... well it doesn’t take a genius to work out that the figures are (well) bollocks. The transfer speed globally suggests a far higher case rate than testing could ever keep up with and thus it’s fairly safe to assume the actual mortality rate is far, far lower. However, in serious cases (those identified, requiring hospital treatment) it’s a stark and high figure ... mostly bourne from an ageing population and the victory of modern science over mild illnesses.

I still think, however, there is a relative overreaction vs actual death risk to the fit proportion in society, however (again) even 1% of the current (bloated) global population is frankly terrifying.

When you look at it, as a government... 1% of nothing, well it’s nothing... 1% of 6 billion hmmmmmmm

It’s easy to talk figures, especially as a % the issue we face is that pandemics will (as they have always done, since global movement began) continue to wreak havoc... this particular one is seemingly virtually airborne and again it’s going nowhere fast... how governments react is based purely on whether they can idly let it play out or not... it’s Hobson’s choice.

 

[Audax]

having lived there for 3 years in the 80's i would hazard a wild guess that 80% of the population is in Auckland and Wellington....and given the fact the Island has been virtually closed for the last 4 months it's obviously disappointing for them to have been compromised again with this dreadful virus that has a less than a 0.5% mortality rate.

Source please for that mortality rate figure.

It's dangerous to rely on the overall mortality rate:

1. The mortality rate varies a lot depending on demographics. Young (under 30), white, female? You're unlucky to even show symptoms, let alone get sick enough to require hospital treatment. Old (over 60), black, male? Chances are very high you'll need hospitalisation, and the mortality rate once there is a lot higher than 0.5%. The mortality rate in UK care homes has been eye-wateringly bad: https://www.theguardian.com/world/2...uk-care-homes-13-times-higher-than-in-germany - over 5% of all residents in care homes died from covid-19. The actual mortality rate will be higher than that, as a lot of care homes managed to avoid having any covid cases. There's been reports of some homes having mortality rates of over half their residents having had major covid outbreaks.

2. The 0.5% number that gets bandied around a lot isn't accurate anyway. See https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/data/mortality - the UK currently has a nearly 15% mortality rate for confirmed cases. That will be a big over-estimate, as our testing regime has been so piss-poor we'll have missed a lot of non-symptomatic cases early on (and probably still do now). On the flipside, it may also fail to take into account a lot of care home deaths from early in the pandemic where testing was not being carried out and Covid was not confirmed as being involved in the death as a result. However, if you look down the page you'll see that based on current knowledge a fairly good estimate of the real mortality rate is probably somewhere between 2% and 5%. But again, that fails to take into account demographics (see point 1).

3. There is increasing evidence that this virus can leave affected individuals who survive with long term health issues. There is significant risk of stroke after recovery, there is significant risk of long term lung damage, issues with chronic fatigue, etc.

4. The mortality rate for Covid-19 does not, and will not, take into account the additional deaths that occur as a result of the period when the NHS was at full stretch handling the peak of the crisis causing treatment for other diseases to be delayed (eg cancer patients who die unnecessarily due to their treatments being delayed).

5. There's growing evidence that this virus can attack us multiple times. It's closely related to the common cold, which we already know we lose immunity to between 3-6 months after the last time we had. Many members of society who survived hospitalisation due to covid-19 the first time around, may not survive a second encounter with the virus.

The mortality rate number (even in that 2-5% range) may not look high. But it's not just the mortality rate that matters - it's the background situation. Seasonal flu, for example, we have vaccines for to help protect those vulnerable to it. Flu has also been around for a long time, and it's well known how best to treat it to minimise the risk of death - and, crucially, if you get flu you know about it as barely anyone has flu without having significant symptoms. These are all things that don't, currently, apply to Covid-19. We're only now starting to discover effective treatments, we don't have a validated vaccine yet (despite what the Russians might want to claim), it is possible to catch and pass on the virus without knowing you have it, and before the pandemic started no one had any exposure to it before and thus no immunity in the community. Covid-19, therefore, spreads easily - which makes it far more likely that those who are susceptible to dying from it are far more likely to catch it, and having caught it are at greater risk of death.

It is highly irresponsible for anyone to make light of this disease by minimising it's impact throwing around a theory that the world has over-reacted because the mortality rate is "low". Especially if you're bandying around an unproven, unsourced percentage for that mortality rate.

 

[Poojah]

Can't see what they're gaining from shutting down a whole city because of 4 cases. It's total overkill, they only need to contact trace, they could easily just enforced social distancing for a few days without closing a whole economy. Are they going to hit the panic button every time there's a positive case?

Why take the chance? They've shut down for three days whilst they build a better understanding of the problem in order to act accordingly. Assuming this family haven't been abroad lately, they're not the only cases.

New Zealand is practically the only nation on the planet that has been able to establish virtual social and economic normality. Wouldn't we all like some of that right now? They're not going to let go of that lightly, and I don't blame them.

 

[Audax]

Covid cases identified in UK approx 312,000.

Covid deaths in UK approx 46,000.

Thats approx 15%

Ignore the 46k deaths number that gets reported daily in the press. It's known to be highly inaccurate at this point. Firstly, it missed a lot of deaths early on as it only counts those who had a positive test (and the testing regime early on was terrible). Secondly, it now counts everyone who dies who ever had a positive test for covid - even if that death was caused by a car accident, for example.

The ONS weekly reports (most recent taking us to the end of July) reports over 51k covid-19 related deaths (as measured by it being mentioned on death certificates) and that numbers excludes Scotland and Northern Ireland. Looking at the latest numbers from Scotland, we can take that estimate to 55k. Up to date numbers for Northern Ireland are hard to find, but look low - a good rough estimate of the UK total probably sits at ~56k for end of July.