[Politics] Jacinda Arden

[Poojah]

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-53761122

So this is why you lock down hard. Let’s see how things are in a few days’ time.

 

[Lower West Stander]

IIRC that "swinging idiot" was paid to produce a "worst case scenario", and that number is what came out of that. Such a worst case scenario will have been predicated on a range of assumptions, many of which at the time will have been nothing more than best guesses, which we now with hindsight will be able to refine into proper educated estimates using proper data analysis. I would assume they based that worst case scenario on things like the government doing nothing (so no lock down), easy airborne transmission, that it affected all care homes, etc etc. Ergo, we shouldn't deride it as being a terrible estimate because we simply don't know how accurate it would have been (although we can probably make a rough guess using data we now have how accurate it might have been).

The government also asked for a range of other estimates. One of which, they used to inform them on when to go into lock down. And Sage has since admitted was based on inadequate data (they didn't know that community transmission was already happening when they ran their first models, and thus underestimated the impact). That was a product of the government not acting anywhere near soon enough to get testing capacity in place and thus not having adequate data to go into the modelling.

At the end of the day, common sense is informed by knowledge, and in many cases knowledge is derived from data. As an Aussie, common sense tells me not to play with spiders (even here in the UK) because I grew up being informed that spider bites could and would make me very sick, and they should be evicted from the house whenever possible. Thing is, here in the UK the prevailing common sense is that spiders in the house aren't a problem. Your spiders are relatively harmless compared to a funnel web or red back or even a white tail spider. Even simpler: common sense in Australia is having mesh screens on all doors and windows. Same doesn't apply here. Or maybe a closer analogy to health topics: once upon a time "common sense" meant smoking was socially accepted, even encouraged. Nowadays, with the product of data driven research, "common sense" tells most people that smoking is health risk. But even now, many folks ignore such common sense and smoke anyway. Common sense sometimes isn't so common as we'd hope.

How can you produce a realistic scenario based on guesses? And one that wasn't even believed by the clown who produced it?

Data is quite often the worst enemy of knowledge as it can be interpreted in so many different ways - which was my original point. All sorts of wacko organisations use data to make spurious claims. On something as unknown as the outcome of Covid it is just as dangerous to over interpret as it is to under interpret. The side effects of the lockdown could be far more dangerous than the impact of Covid itself.

 

[Billy the Fish]

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-53761122

So this is why you lock down hard. Let’s see how things are in a few days’ time.

Still can't agree that they need a hard lockdown at this stage given the leaps in knowledge and treatments over the last few months.

You're making the assumption that eradicating the virus is the correct action and viable in the long term.

If that was the case why haven't we been doing hard lockdowns every year for flu?

 

[WATFORD zero]

Unfortunately that's not something thats in abundance these days, been in steady decline for 50 years. IMO of course.

There's certainly plenty of evidence that Darwinism is in reverse. Having spent some time looking at the reasons behind it, I think it preempts Health and Safety by a good few years and may well have started with the widespread use of fireguards 50-70 years ago

PS. I'm with [MENTION=33374]Audax[/MENTION], you can never have too much data from similar situations when dealing with new ones.

 

[Spiros]

If that was the case why haven't we been doing hard lockdowns every year for flu?

Maybe because for flu they don't work? I read somewhere that while the lockdown in the UK (apparently) cut the spread of covid it had only a small impact on flu. In the last few weeks the death rate for flu/pneumonia has been something like 7 times that for covid and it's not even the flu season

 

[highflyer]

A long way from Man City mate.

Just for the sake comparing the UK to a football club, I don't suppose you or anyone else could think of a club, who did achieve great things a very long time ago, but only on the back of some highly unethical conduct? And to make the comparison spot on, their fans would have to increasingly be making embarrassingly terrible decisions, presumably because of an extremely arrogant and outdated view of their status. And this arrogance would have to be likely to soon explode into anger due to an impending dose of reality that's inevitably going to brutally administered in the coming months?

Thank in advance for this

I cannot think, for one moment, who you could possibly be referring to!

(bravo)

 

[Billy the Fish]

Maybe because for flu they don't work? I read somewhere that while the lockdown in the UK (apparently) cut the spread of covid it had only a small impact on flu. In the last few weeks the death rate for flu/pneumonia has been something like 7 times that for covid and it's not even the flu season

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/aug/10/lockdown-england-reduced-flu-colds-bronchitis-coronavirus

Not quite right according to this. Colds, flu, covid all spread in broadly the same way so makes sense that lockdown has reduced the spread of other viral infections.

 

[Mellotron]

DOUBLE POST - ignore.

 

[Mellotron]

If that was the case why haven't we been doing hard lockdowns every year for flu?

I appreciate what you're saying, however I think it's partly the fact that a vaccine is very likely to be viable in the next 6-12 months which makes a short term (in the grand scheme of things) lockdown appear a plausible reaction.

We have flu vaccines every year. We have no COVID-19 vaccine in widespread circulation currently.

 

[sydney]

That's interesting.

My partner is a nurse too and in the (albeit small and provincial) NHS hospital she works at is that, the view is that it is pretty much under control. There have been 3 cases in the last 5 weeks.

well....there you go.....my opinion is that they will make out of it whatever they will.......my wife and daughters is completely different....such is life

 

[Kinky Gerbil]

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-53761122

So this is why you lock down hard. Let’s see how things are in a few days’ time.

Or hard lock downs just delay and a more middle ground is needed

 

[Tom Hark Preston Park]

Might appear from this end of the planet that JA is in charge of the parish pump politics of that far off two-island village. But she still has to show a sure touch as regards earthquakes (frequent) terrorist attacks (rare) and inter-racial tensions (ongoing). Seems to me and I guess most that she's doing a grand job. COVID response ditto. What clinches it for me - as if a clincher were needed - is this...

'Jacinda Ardern on UK child-killer Jon Venables' possible relocation to NZ - 'Don't bother applying'

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/news/article.cfm?c_id=1&objectid=12243475

 

[nicko31]

Congratulations to Jacinda Ardern for winning 3 more years.

We can only dream

 

[peterward]

Congratulations to Jacinda Ardern for winning 3 more years.

We can only dream

As a social justice centrist that is more inclined towards the right of centre than hard left. This is a left of centre politician that is a real hope for how our own labour party may again dominate the centre ground after its crazy lurch to the fringes.

What a woman she is........... tough, resilient, decisive, economically competent and brimming with humanity and compassion.

I would guess there are any kiwis proud of their remarkable leader.

Congratulations Jacinda

 

[wellquickwoody]

Might appear from this end of the planet that JA is in charge of the parish pump politics of that far off two-island village. But she still has to show a sure touch as regards earthquakes (frequent) terrorist attacks (rare) and inter-racial tensions (ongoing). Seems to me and I guess most that she's doing a grand job. COVID response ditto. What clinches it for me - as if a clincher were needed - is this...

'Jacinda Ardern on UK child-killer Jon Venables' possible relocation to NZ - 'Don't bother applying'

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/news/article.cfm?c_id=1&objectid=12243475

Congratulations to Jacinda Ardern for winning 3 more years.

We can only dream

The less well off Maoris are not her biggest fans. No, I cannot be bothered to find a link, if you are interested go look it up yourself.

 

[Cowfold Seagull]

As a social justice centrist that is more inclined towards the right of centre than hard left. This is a left of centre politician that is a real hope for how our own labour party may again dominate the centre ground after its crazy lurch to the fringes.

What a woman she is........... tough, resilient, decisive, economically competent and brimming with humanity and compassion.

I would guess there are any kiwis proud of their remarkable leader.

Congratulations Jacinda

Great for New Zealand, just not so great for me, as l want to visit there in March!

 

[Leekbrookgull]

Great for New Zealand, just not so great for me, as l want to visit there in March!

Have you been before ? We had six weeks Oct/Nov 2018.

 

[sparkie]

Landslide win.

 

[Wardy's twin]

The less well off Maoris are not her biggest fans. No, I cannot be bothered to find a link, if you are interested go look it up yourself.

Well Boris has managed to p*ss off most of the UK population

 

[Hu_Camus]

I loved the way she consigned the mass-shooter to the ash-shithouse of history, after the mosque outrage.
She led their media, and they followed. So many times we get the life-story of scum who commit these type of crimes, whereas in instances where there is no doubt as to the actually perpetrators, and who have consequently died in the act, I'd be inclined to feed their corpses to dogs.
And yet she nailed it, unashamedly, and from the heart.