How much is the Referendum Campaign influencing you? NEW POLL.

[Bladders]

I am probably more informed than most.

This thread needed to lighten up a bit.

Never thought the comedy would come from you though

 

[JC Footy Genius]

No. We listen to the arguments, listen to who they are from, we appreciate they are all forecasts (FFS), and decide what we think, on balance, is best. It really is this simple. We are not stupid. I think I am very well placed to make an informed decision, my decision, on the EU. In fact because of my living and work situation I am probably more informed than most.

Is that the royal 'we' because the person I was responding to often portrays forecasts as if they are facts.

I'm sure you do think you are more informed than most.

 

[Soulman]

Is that the royal 'we' because the person I was responding to often portrays forecasts as if they are facts.

I'm sure you do think you are more informed than most.

He was certainly more informed when he predicted a 7 point lead...... i think i will stay less informed.

 

[pastafarian]

I don't believe immigration numbers will fall if we leave or stay. If we stay it's business as usual - fine - if we leave we will have free movement anyway as a condition of re-entry into the single market.

this is absolute crackers

A brexit win is a vote to take back control of our borders and end free movement.
And you believe those in power will post brexit simply ignore the referendum result

To put this in context, dealing with the public finance effect would require at least an additional one or two years of ‘austerity’ – spending cuts or tax rises

To be so cavalier about peoples jobs and livelihoods is positively Trumpian -

You seem to be out of kilter with public opinion

 

[Herr Tubthumper]

Is that the royal 'we' because the person I was responding to often portrays forecasts as if they are facts.

This seems like you're weaselling out of your statement. You can't portray a forecast as a fact. Only an idiot needs to be told a forecast isn't a fact.

 

[Herr Tubthumper]

He was certainly more informed when he predicted a 7 point lead...... i think i will stay less informed.

You are overlooking Obama's presidency, Germany winning the World Cup, Labour winning the London mayoral election, Greece and the EU working out a deal etc etc

Why don't you now make a comment about me not living in the uk and we can be done for the day.

 

[Herr Tubthumper]

Is that the royal 'we' because the person I was responding to often portrays forecasts as if they are facts.

I'm sure you do think you are more informed than most.

I said probably more informed.

 

[pastafarian]

You can't portray a forecast as a fact. Only an idiot needs to be told a forecast isn't a fact.

perhaps you could pass this info onto 5ways

 

[Herr Tubthumper]

Pale ale time. Laters everyone.

 

[JC Footy Genius]

This seems like you're weaselling out of your statement. You can't portray a forecast as a fact. Only an idiot needs to be told a forecast isn't a fact.

Does it? In what way? I was responding to another posters point which you seem to think was directed at you. That's factually incorrect, many people portray forecasts as facts (see this thread) . That's a bit of a harsh description of your fellow Remainers.

 

[JC Footy Genius]

He was certainly more informed when he predicted a 7 point lead...... i think i will stay less informed.

To be fair he might well be .. although he hides it very well.

 

[5ways]

Any evidence that these numerous organisations are any more likely to be right this time? - None

Or do you just want to keep ignoring their track record? - Yes

I would put some trust in organisations and people who have a proven verifiable track record in forecasting accurately. I would also take into account Brexit is a unique situation so any forecasts are even less likely to be accurate. You continually quote them as if they are gospel, tablets of wisdom handed down from our infallable elites which is either deliberately dishonest or as you are a bright chap wilfully ignorant.

It's not gospel and I know the difference between a fact and a forecast. The way I see it is 9/10 forecasters are predicting rain tomorrow. I decide to bring a brolly. The Brexiteer watching decries the consensus "they said it was going to rain today, and it's sunny!" therefore decides against a umbrella. He goes out and gets soaked.

What do you mean any evidence that these organisations are more likely to be right this time? You want me to go through the *deep breath* IMF, OECD, LSE, Treasury, OBR, IFS, NIESR and so on and find out their percentage prediction hit-rate? If you want to talk about willfully ignorant would you apply the same standard here, of total and complete accuracy, to any other part of your life?

If you want to argue they are wrong, you need evidence to do so. You need your own reports, you need your own economists. But they do not exist - so what else can be done? Willful, purposeful ignorance. Gove couldn't do it yesterday so he said to the effect of "i think we're tired of hearing from experts". I'd get tired of it too if they all, overwhelmingly, denounced my position. Although rather than say, simply, "they might be wrong so let's take the plunge" I might consider changing my position.

 

[Hampster Gull]

It's not gospel and I know the difference between a fact and a forecast. The way I see it is 9/10 forecasters are predicting rain tomorrow. I decide to bring a brolly. The Brexiteer watching decries the consensus "they said it was going to rain today, and it's sunny!" therefore decides against a umbrella. He goes out and gets soaked.

What do you mean any evidence that these organisations are more likely to be right this time? You want me to go through the *deep breath* IMF, OECD, LSE, Treasury, OBR, IFS, NIESR and so on and find out their percentage prediction hit-rate? If you want to talk about willfully ignorant would you apply the same standard here, of total and complete accuracy, to any other part of your life?

If you want to argue they are wrong, you need evidence to do so. You need your own reports, you need your own economists. But they do not exist - so what else can be done? Willful, purposeful ignorance. Gove couldn't do it yesterday so he said to the effect of "i think we're tired of hearing from experts". I'd get tired of it too if they all, overwhelmingly, denounced my position. Although rather than say, simply, "they might be wrong so let's take the plunge" I might consider changing my position.

Evidence, evidence you say we dont need no evidence around here

 

[Hampster Gull]

Right, lager time

 

[Buzzer]

... You want me to go through the *deep breath* IMF... and so on and find out their percentage prediction hit-rate?

If you think the IMF have been reliable in the past and on that basis you'll go with what they say in the future then it stands to reason that you place a heavy weighting of trust in those economists that wrote the reports and made those forecasts. People like Ashoka Mody for instance who wrote last week:

"...the arguments that leaving the EU would cause permanent damage to the UK are not supported by evidence"

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/b...c-consensus-on-brexit-is-flawed-a7057306.html

By your own criteria, he's one of the men you look to for informed opinions and you have to believe that he could well be right this time. You can't have it both ways.

 

[Green Cross Code Man]

Should be, might be, at the end of the day it's still ifs and buts. We already have a guaranteed free trade agreement.....why not just keep it?

Because our 'free trade' agreement comes at such an unpalatable cost which you like to ignore.

Sent from the boot of Lingard

 

[Green Cross Code Man]

And random Brexit posters on NSC are right no doubt?

No one knows, so people should stop linking these ridiculous forecasts.

Good point HT, well made

No it wasn't.
Sent from the boot of Lingard

 

[Lincoln Imp]

I like this take on things.


Rich people control politics, the media, and for many ordinary people their employment. rich powerful people are currently having a silly squabble, do we leave Europe or do we stay? they are trying to encourage the young to vote to remain, why, because they cynically believe that the young will respond to their media pressure, and more importantly they need to counter us old hounds. why? because we remember! we remember being told to join a "Common Market" this would increase trade, create jobs, and give us cheaper holidays away from the UK. the latter is probably true.
Back then prior to the Common Market, a man could work, and earn enough to support his family, now both mother and father must work, and many families are still struggling whilst their children are forced into breakfast clubs, after school clubs, or are left at home to manage until mother or father get home.
So in reality, for ordinary people, the common market is not working. but now they want more, they want us to be a state in a political Europe, run by the Germans and the French! and this is what us old hounds truly remember. Millions of British people died to keep Britain independent and free. British blood was spilt across France, Belgium and Germany, and in many other countries around the world. these people died for us and our country, they don't have a vote to stay or go, they made the ultimate sacrifice!

So whatever your age, when polling day comes, I ask you to vote in their place, ask yourself, "If they were here, how would they vote" did they fight so the we could have an immigration problem? Did they fight so that their enemies could rule us, would they have been happy to have been amalgamated with the German army? for their tomorrows they gave us today and the freedom to vote. please give them a voice and your vote in return.

Just out of interest, where did you lift this from?

 

[Lincoln Imp]

Evidence, evidence you say we dont need no evidence around here

There was one prominent Brexiter on here who said he NEVER took any notice of forecasts but relied entirely on his gut instinct. This certainly explained some of his posts. A common Leavers debating technique on here is to claim that Remainers say something that they don't, and then furiously demolish it. "D'oh! Gutless Remainers say we can't trade with the EU without accepting free movement." was still being repeated on a referendum thread quite recently.

 

[yxee]

With our voting system your vote means very little anyway.
So are you happy with us being a 70 million small island being left behind by the US, the EU and China in the future?

Try to think what "left behind" really means. What is the goal in your world?

For me, it is being happy, living free, in a safe and sustainable society. I think this is more achievable outside the EU.