How much is the Referendum Campaign influencing you? NEW POLL.

[5ways]

In the real world It is best to remember just because an 'expert' or experts say something is likely to happen it doesn't necessarily make it true. Especially when their track record is extremely problematic. It's very telling you still can't provide evidence that these experts have any sought of credible record on making consistently accurate economic forecasts.

Your A/B examples are indicators that markets don't like uncertainty, they are not evidence for the overall long term economic positives/negatives of Brexit which the forecasts are guessing at.

You make one useful relevant point if 'everyone' (remainers) continually talk down our economic post Brexit prospects this increases uncertainty. It's almost like some of them have a vested interest in talking the UK down.. Also it's No 6 in the 'Ten Reasons Why Economists always get it wrong'

6.****Forecasts, of themselves,*affect the economy.* The forecast becomes part of the "given," and influences human behaviour--for good or ill.


Your third point was covered previously.

… Bear in mind that this is not the famous complaint from the Queen that nobody saw the financial crisis coming. The crisis was firmly established when these forecasts were made. The Financial Times had been writing exhaustively about the “credit crunch” since the previous summer. Northern Rock had been nationalised in the UK and Bear Stearns had collapsed in the US. It did not take a genius to see that trouble was on the way for the wider economy.

More astonishing still, when Loungani extends the deadline for forecasting a recession to September 2008, the consensus remained that not a single economy would fall into recession in 2009. Making up for lost time and satisfying the premise of an old joke, by September of 2009, the year in which the recessions actually occurred, the consensus predicted 54 out of 49 of them – that is, five more than there were. And, as an encore, there were 15 recessions in 2012. None were foreseen in the spring of 2011 and only two were predicted by September 2011.

Predictions from multinational organisations such as the IMF and the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development have remained very similar to the private sector consensus – similarly bad, that is.

https://next.ft.com/content/14e323ee-e602-11e3-aeef-00144feabdc0#axzz33EAHFQqf

This is evidence their predictive powers are shockingly suspect, consensus group-think isn't a plus ….which you continually ignore.

Interesting you think terms like rough idea and trickling in data and jobs linked to is a good basis for predictions. You mean numerous convenient assumptions that may be completely different next year and scenarios that you first say haven't been made clear by Brexiteers then refer to deals made by countries that are in no way comparable in economic/political size with the UK.

And finally there you go again suggesting forecasts are facts. Know one really knows what will happen be it poison or sweet ambrosia … anyone who says they do is a liar.

Well we've gone round and round in circles, of course and I take your points. All I can say is if the situation were reversed and 9/10 economists, IMF, OECD etc etc told me we would have a recession if we vote in, costs jobs, investment and so on I would vote Leave with confidence. I also take the point that it can become a self-fulfilling prophecy.

 

[Soulman]

Yes fair enough but I feel that remain gives us a stronger position in the long-term to face down the challenges you state. Although I do not agree that EU migration increases inequality. Our higher standard of living will come under corrosive attack from cheaper workers and markets abroad. This will happen in or out and there is no easy way to deal with it. You preserve or improve upon your standard of living by being more productive and creating higher value goods. The ability to do this is better within the EU not without because you retain access to the world's richest market, retain your trade agreements, and amplify your voice internationally.

Sounds great, so why are we having this referendum, why is the vote predictions fairly close.

 

[Cheshire Cat]

Nothing in any campaign has altered my opinion at all - they are both flinging made up figures at each other, and the whole thing is boring me rigid.

Neither side have the faintest idea what the impact of leaving or staying will be - other than made-up implausible scare-stories.

 

[Lincoln Imp]

Typical Remain answer from the Cameron school of waffle.The subject matter was village idiots,not what vegetables they eat!

Better a waffler than a python.

 

[pastafarian]

Well we've gone round and round in circles, of course and I take your points. All I can say is if the situation were reversed and 9/10 economists, IMF, OECD etc etc told me we would have a recession if we vote in, costs jobs, investment and so on I would vote Leave with confidence. I also take the point that it can become a self-fulfilling prophecy.

If 9/10 economists were for the other way you would flip your vote to Leave?
Therefore consigning all your other argued reasons why we are better off in the EU into the "not really that important reasons for remaining in after all" folder
Not a great one for standing by your convictions are you?

 

[5ways]

If 9/10 economists were for the other way you would flip your vote to Leave?
Therefore consigning all your other argued reasons why we are better off in the EU into the "not really that important reasons for remaining in after all" folder
Not a great one for standing by your convictions are you?

As someone may have said "When the facts change, I change my mind. What do you do, sir?"

 

[pastafarian]

As someone may have said "When the facts change, I change my mind. What do you do, sir?"

when the facts change I too change my mind.

But since you are talking about changing your vote if the economic facts were 9/10 swinging the other way it should be noted these predictions are not facts at all anyway, even though you like to keep portraying them as such.

I wouldn’t change my vote at all according to economic fiction or even if I believed wrongly they were facts, thus ignoring the other issues of which there are plenty.
This economic fiction probably registers below the length of queues at airports dilemma (that some/one are worried about) on my list of importance anyway.

 

[Soulman]

As someone may have said "When the facts change, I change my mind. What do you do, sir?"

I would take on board (as you keep stating wrongly) that these are not facts but opinions, and that is a fact.

 

[5ways]

There is enough cumulative evidence and argument to believe that 9/10 economists are right, and the lone wolf Brexiteer economist is misguided. Remainers look at the strength of the arguments rather than get swept away in conspiracy theory level denigration of the entire economics profession.