How much is the Referendum Campaign influencing you? NEW POLL.

[JC Footy Genius]

Inequality is a global issue. Increasingly when the economy is growing anywhere it accrues to a much greater degree to a smaller and smaller number of people. You're totally right about wages and the supply of workers. We live in a global market place with ever-increasing competition from cheaper labour but also more significantly in the years to come automation. This will lead to greater inequality. You don't avoid this by trying to shield your economy from competition - that will simply drive business elsewhere and leave you with unproductive people.

You shield your economy by having the right mix of labour flexibility, something the UK has, with high-end specialisation. Inside the EU we are better able to achieve this balance, you can't run away from global conditions and competition. You fight for rules that benefit you. The UK was able to do this in the 20th century because we were a significant global economy. We're a bit-player in a US/China story with the second act being the rise of everyone else. The EU has to band together to maintain influence.

I'm not taking the conclusions of one or two economists - think of any economic body you can, international or domestic, they will all tell you the same thing - Brexit will damage the economy in the short and long-term. Take this as one example: http://www.ifs.org.uk/publications/8296

but feel free to pick reports by the OECD, IMF, OBR etc etc. They all say the same thing.

Yes many of them do and what is their track record in accurately forecasting anything?

... two conclusions. The first was that forecasts are all much the same. There was little to choose between those produced by the IMF and the World Bank, and those from private sector forecasters. The second conclusion was that the predictive record of economists was terrible.

https://next.ft.com/content/14e323ee-e602-11e3-aeef-00144feabdc0#axzz33EAHFQqf

Wish I could auto link this to all your posts

Wrong Again - The economists’ confession. OECD special

http://www.weeklystandard.com/wrong-again/article/784910

Ten Reasons Why Economists Always Get It Wrong.

http://danerwin.typepad.com/my_weblog/2011/02/ten-reasons-why-economists-get-it-wrong.html

 

[Bladders]

Majority of French back Frexit?
https://www.euractiv.com/section/future-eu/news/majority-of-french-back-holding-frexit-referendum/

The French sick to the back teeth of the EU, like the rest of us.

Been saying it will all unravel if we leave from the start.

The head buriers might start waking up to it now

 

[5ways]

immigration numbers are too high
how would you significantly reduce EU migration to the UK?

I don't believe immigration numbers will fall if we leave or stay. If we stay it's business as usual - fine - if we leave we will have free movement anyway as a condition of re-entry into the single market.

 

[5ways]

I'm not trying to avoid inequality altogether but I do want to mitigate its effects on the most vulnerable. Your line of argument works very well when analysing global trends but forgets that these are real communities that are not always capable of labour market flexibility. Fighting for rules that benefit us within the EU will not reduce the attractiveness of the UK as a destination for EU migrants which means it becomes ever harder for the next generation to attain the living standards of the previous one. Again, I note your links to the views of economists on this subject on the maximum benefit to the economy but it does not address the fall in living standards of the next generation of UK citizens while the owners of capital rub their hands all the way to the bank.

I don't think we will achieve the same living standards for this (mine) generation as the last, in terms of home-ownership, 2 cars etc. The previous generation had it all. All you need to do is look at the share of UK GDP since 1950 and see how it's shrunk(or look at China in the same period). Used to be you could walk up to a factory, ask for a job, and get one. And with that raise a family. That's not coming back and you have to fight harder and harder for every % of growth and of GDP. I see no reason to make that even harder by leaving the EU. There's no perfect solution, you have to adapt and shape the conditions around you as best you can.

 

[5ways]

Yes many of them do and what is their track record in accurately forecasting anything?

... two conclusions. The first was that forecasts are all much the same. There was little to choose between those produced by the IMF and the World Bank, and those from private sector forecasters. The second conclusion was that the predictive record of economists was terrible.

https://next.ft.com/content/14e323ee-e602-11e3-aeef-00144feabdc0#axzz33EAHFQqf

Wish I could auto link this to all your posts

Wrong Again - The economists’ confession. OECD special

http://www.weeklystandard.com/wrong-again/article/784910

Ten Reasons Why Economists Always Get It Wrong.

http://danerwin.typepad.com/my_weblog/2011/02/ten-reasons-why-economists-get-it-wrong.html

Economists are sometimes wrong. OK. Any evidence that these numerous highly respected and super clever organisations are actually wrong? Or do you just want to sling mud?

 

[Bladders]

I don't believe immigration numbers will fall if we leave or stay. If we stay it's business as usual - fine - if we leave we will have free movement anyway as a condition of re-entry into the single market.

No we will not have freedom of movement if we leave.

You think if this country voted to leave we'd still allow freedom of movement? Probably one of the biggest factors for people voting to leave?

Lol! No chance

 

[JC Footy Genius]

Economists are sometimes wrong. OK. Any evidence that these numerous highly respected and super clever organisations are actually wrong? Or do you just want to sling mud?

Correction ... economists are nearly always wrong. Any evidence that these numerous organisations are any more likely to be right this time? Or do you just want to keep ignoring their track record?

 

[Herr Tubthumper]

Correction ... economists are nearly always wrong. Any evidence that these numerous organisations are any more likely to be right this time? Or do you just want to keep ignoring their track record?

And random Brexit posters on NSC are right no doubt?

 

[5ways]

Correction ... economists are nearly always wrong. Any evidence that these numerous organisations are any more likely to be right this time? Or do you just want to keep ignoring their track record?

Nearly always wrong? Why do we bother to have a board of governors for the Bank of England? Why does the US bother to have a Treasury secretary? What does the IMF do all day? Does the World Bank sit around making paper areoplanes? are you serious?

You really think every single respectable economic organisation that exists simply pulled their figures out of the air? You're taking pride in ignorance.

This is what the IFS said recently-

In the short run, our estimates therefore suggest that the overall effect of Brexit would be to damage the public finances. On the basis of estimates by NIESR, the effect could be between £20 billion and £40 billion in 2019–20, more than enough to wipe out the planned surplus. In the long run, lower GDP would likely mean lower cash levels of public spending.

To put this in context, dealing with the public finance effect would require at least an additional one or two years of ‘austerity’ – spending cuts or tax rises – at the same rate as we have experienced recently to get the public finances back to balance (should that remain the government’s priority). Following this path would also mean government debt remaining higher than otherwise, and additional debt interest payments.

To be so cavalier about peoples jobs and livelihoods is positively Trumpian - we know nothing, we don't care. It was like Gove saying yesterday he does not know how many jobs will be lost.

 

[JC Footy Genius]

And random Brexit posters on NSC are right no doubt?

Haven't noticed anyone quoting Random Brexit posters on NSC as authoritative sources but to be fair they do generally make more convincing arguments than economists.

 

[Hampster Gull]

And random Brexit posters on NSC are right no doubt?

Good point HT, well made

 

[5ways]

Moreover the proof of evidence needs to be on the party that is determined to throw us off the cliff. You need to convince people that you have a parachute, not denigrate people who know what they're talking about.

 

[Lincoln Imp]

I happen to work with many Eastern Europeans, perhaps if you are going to try and put in an over the top "example" you should do your homework, Bulgarians are not pickpockets...... nice people actually, albeit too much immigration.

Oh Lordy Lou. I was NOT saying that Bulgarians are pickpockets (although I suppose one or two of them are); I was saying that my sister-in-law's fears - her worries that her life is about to be over run by East European criminals. And before you say, no one is suggesting that all Eastern Europeans are criminals.

 

[JC Footy Genius]

Nearly always wrong? Why do we bother to have a board of governors for the Bank of England? Why does the US bother to have a Treasury secretary? What does the IMF do all day? Does the World Bank sit around making paper areoplanes? are you serious?

You really think every single respectable economic organisation that exists simply pulled their figures out of the air? You're taking pride in ignorance.

This is what the IFS said recently-

In the short run, our estimates therefore suggest that the overall effect of Brexit would be to damage the public finances. On the basis of estimates by NIESR, the effect could be between £20 billion and £40 billion in 2019–20, more than enough to wipe out the planned surplus. In the long run, lower GDP would likely mean lower cash levels of public spending.

To put this in context, dealing with the public finance effect would require at least an additional one or two years of ‘austerity’ – spending cuts or tax rises – at the same rate as we have experienced recently to get the public finances back to balance (should that remain the government’s priority). Following this path would also mean government debt remaining higher than otherwise, and additional debt interest payments.

To be so cavalier about peoples jobs and livelihoods is positively Trumpian - we know nothing, we don't care. It was like Gove saying yesterday he does not know how many jobs will be lost.

Any evidence that these numerous organisations are any more likely to be right this time? - None

Or do you just want to keep ignoring their track record? - Yes

I would put some trust in organisations and people who have a proven verifiable track record in forecasting accurately. I would also take into account Brexit is a unique situation so any forecasts are even less likely to be accurate. You continually quote them as if they are gospel, tablets of wisdom handed down from our infallable elites which is either deliberately dishonest or as you are a bright chap wilfully ignorant.

 

[Herr Tubthumper]

Haven't noticed anyone quoting Random Brexit posters on NSC as authoritative sources but to be fair they do generally make more convincing arguments than economists.

What an utterly ridiculous thing to say. You've well and truly run out of arguments haven't you?

 

[Soulman]

I like this take on things.


Rich people control politics, the media, and for many ordinary people their employment. rich powerful people are currently having a silly squabble, do we leave Europe or do we stay? they are trying to encourage the young to vote to remain, why, because they cynically believe that the young will respond to their media pressure, and more importantly they need to counter us old hounds. why? because we remember! we remember being told to join a "Common Market" this would increase trade, create jobs, and give us cheaper holidays away from the UK. the latter is probably true.
Back then prior to the Common Market, a man could work, and earn enough to support his family, now both mother and father must work, and many families are still struggling whilst their children are forced into breakfast clubs, after school clubs, or are left at home to manage until mother or father get home.
So in reality, for ordinary people, the common market is not working. but now they want more, they want us to be a state in a political Europe, run by the Germans and the French! and this is what us old hounds truly remember. Millions of British people died to keep Britain independent and free. British blood was spilt across France, Belgium and Germany, and in many other countries around the world. these people died for us and our country, they don't have a vote to stay or go, they made the ultimate sacrifice!

So whatever your age, when polling day comes, I ask you to vote in their place, ask yourself, "If they were here, how would they vote" did they fight so the we could have an immigration problem? Did they fight so that their enemies could rule us, would they have been happy to have been amalgamated with the German army? for their tomorrows they gave us today and the freedom to vote. please give them a voice and your vote in return.

 

[Buzzer]

This referendum has influenced me big time with regards David Cameron and Boris Johnson. Both of them have lost a huge amount of credibility with their lies and scare stories. Good riddance to both of 'em.

 

[JC Footy Genius]

What an utterly ridiculous thing to say. You've well and truly run out of arguments haven't you?

As you said yourself HT making these economic predictions is absurd. I doubt it.

 

[Herr Tubthumper]

Any evidence that these numerous organisations are any more likely to be right this time? - None

Or do you just want to keep ignoring their track record? - Yes

I would put some trust in organisations and people who have a proven verifiable track record in forecasting accurately. I would also take into account Brexit is a unique situation so any forecasts are even less likely to be accurate. You continually quote them as if they are gospel, tablets of wisdom handed down from our infallable elites which is either deliberately dishonest or as you are a bright chap wilfully ignorant.

No. We listen to the arguments, listen to who they are from, we appreciate they are all forecasts (FFS), and decide what we think, on balance, is best. It really is this simple. We are not stupid. I think I am very well placed to make an informed decision, my decision, on the EU. In fact because of my living and work situation I am probably more informed than most.

 

[Herr Tubthumper]

As you said yourself HT making these economic predictions is absurd. I doubt it.

As someone who understands statistics, expectation, probability and outcome making predictions isn't absurd at all. But you have to treat it with due and appropriate caution. You seem to confuse expectation with exact outcome. You could also do with looking up the definition of key opinion leader. You're going round in circles with your argument so let's call it a day....it's too hot for this.