[Help] How many are the Tories going to win by?

[Live by the sea]

My prediction, Tory 10-15 seat majority, unfortunately.

Corrected for you. Fortunately Conservatives do win as it stops a dangerous Marxist getting into power. Bring back new labour. No to extremists.

 

[BadFish]

Corrected for you. Fortunately Conservatives do win as it stops a dangerous Marxist getting into power. Bring back new labour. No to extremists.

I agree, parties close to the wings are dangerous.

https://www.politicalcompass.org/uk2017

 

[Don Quixote]

I think they’ll get 335 or so, so not by much.

 

[LamieRobertson]

I’m going for a hung parliament...that should help move B along a bit

 

[Bold Seagull]

Corrected for you. Fortunately Conservatives do win as it stops a dangerous Marxist getting into power. Bring back new labour. No to extremists.

Yawn. Yawn. Yawn. Even a Tory Prime Minister would prefer Labour getting closer to power than this Tory mob.

 

[A1X]

Fortunately Conservatives do win as it stops a dangerous Marxist getting into power.

Is Corbyn a Marxist, though? A Marxist is quite a specific thing, much like a Nazi, and I've never seen or heard anything to suggest he is a Marxist.

 

[Bold Seagull]

The bookies Smarkets have it at 52. Halving that for over confidence by punters, I’ve gone for 26.

But wouldn’t be shocked by a hung Commons.

The weather. Tactical voting. Youth vote. Brexit. Polls and bookies could be all over the shop this election.

 

[wellquickwoody]

Yawn. Yawn. Yawn. Even a Tory Prime Minister would prefer Labour getting closer to power than this Tory mob.

Think you need to look at what ex Labour MPs have been saying.

 

[Seaber]

I wish I had the confidence of some on this thread. I reckon around 350 seats.

 

[Bold Seagull]

Think you need to look at what ex Labour MPs have been saying.

Don't worry, I have, in depth, not just from a media prism some people seem to operate in. Their back story, history. Slightly easier with a former Tory Prime Minister though. Ian Austin's achievements don't exactly stack up to the same level as John Major, you know, the Tory PM that Tories claim is the sole reason Blair inherited a strong growing economy. A moderate in the party who finds it's current leader abhorrent, as does his former leadership contender Michael Heseltine, as do former Attorney Generals, Cabinet members, high flying important members of the party.

 

[crodonilson]

I wish I had the confidence of some on this thread. I reckon around 350 seats.

The tories are going to absolutely run amok, mark my words.

 

[Weststander]

The weather. Tactical voting. Youth vote. Brexit. Polls and bookies could be all over the shop this election.

I agree, it's all up in the air.

But don't pollsters, especially YouGov, take tactical voting and the youth vote into their polling and analysis? YouGov survey across all age bands, and their work is very carefully targeted on marginals.

Some people seem to wishful think that election results are: Whatever YouGov etc calculate, plus 3 million other shy Labour voters on the day itself.

 

[Blue Valkyrie]

The tories are going to absolutely run amok, mark my words.

Indeed.

It'll be a complete walkover and Corbyn will be gone by next week.

 

[Triggaaar]

How many are the Tories going to win by?

What? This is the worst government I can remember us having, and you think they're going to win again? Yeah, good one crodo, good one.

 

[Tom Bombadil]

The tories are going to absolutely run amok, mark my words.

Just interested in how you decided which was the smuggest most punchable tory you could have as your avatar? I think Cleverly's a good choice for trolling, but what made you go with him rather than say Michael Gove or Priti Patel?

 

[Triggaaar]

60+ majority for the Prime Liar.

Announced just after 10pm when the BBC reveals its exit poll.


Corbyn gone by Saturday.

Every cloud.

But Christ, think of the damage that buffoon can do to us in 5 years with a majority

 

[crodonilson]

What? This is the worst government I can remember us having, and you think they're going to win again? Yeah, good one crodo, good one.

They appear to have captivated the nation with their bold policies driving Britain forward and their oven/microwave ready Brexit deal.

The proof of the pudding as they say is in the eating and we shall find out tonight.

 

[Triggaaar]

@%1;

Hopefully enough to ensure Corbyn resigns and takes his extremist Marxist mates with him. This will empower the decent moderate labour mp’s to restore the Labour Party to the way it was under Blair and brown and make labour much more electable in the future.

Well yes, we need Corbyn and his muppets to go, but I'm hoping 'enough' is still a tiny amount.

 

[whitelion]

I can only see "no overall majority".

Anything else would surprise me.

 

[Bold Seagull]

I agree, it's all up in the air.

But don't pollsters, especially YouGov, take tactical voting and the youth vote into their polling and analysis? YouGov survey across all age bands, and their work is very carefully targeted on marginals.

Some people seem to wishful think that election results are: Whatever YouGov etc calculate, plus 3 million other shy Labour voters on the day itself.

YouGov is run by a former Conservative candidate and has always favoured and has always reflected their political leaning. MRP has been elevated to a mythical status because it called a hung parliament in 2017, even though it's actual seat predictions between parties was well off. Seems they're being given much of the emphasis as the leading pollster in this race, but even Cummings has been writing how he fears predicting a Tory majority might actually cost them today.