[Help] How many are the Tories going to win by?

[wellquickwoody]

Don't worry, I have, in depth, not just from a media prism some people seem to operate in. Their back story, history. Slightly easier with a former Tory Prime Minister though. Ian Austin's achievements don't exactly stack up to the same level as John Major, you know, the Tory PM that Tories claim is the sole reason Blair inherited a strong growing economy. A moderate in the party who finds it's current leader abhorrent, as does his former leadership contender Michael Heseltine, as do former Attorney Generals, Cabinet members, high flying important members of the party.

If, and I still think if, the Conservatives get a working majority, I am going to enjoy rubbing your lying, deceitful grubby little nose in it for months to come.

 

[Guinness Boy]

Just interested in how you decided which was the smuggest most punchable tory you could have as your avatar? I think Cleverly's a good choice for trolling, but what made you go with him rather than say Michael Gove or Priti Patel?

Gove is the most punchable bloke on the planet. If he had “smug” tattooed on he forehead it would actually make him less punchable.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

 

[Bold Seagull]

If, and I still think if, the Conservatives get a working majority, I am going to enjoy rubbing your lying, deceitful grubby little nose in it for months to come.

Every now and again you reveal what a sad little hateful person you are. Go for it. Like I'm going to be bothered what you say.

 

[Triggaaar]

They appear to have captivated the nation with their bold policies driving Britain forward and their oven/microwave ready Brexit deal.

Yep, straight from the fridge into the fire.

 

[Chicken Run]

I've added the "no majority" option that was missing.

It depends on how you determine "win by" - presumably you mean majority, but are you factoring in speaker seats and Sinn Fein in that?

326 seats is the lowest for a majority, giving 326 v 324, but there is the speaker and three (I think) deputies and, for now at least, seven Sinn Fein MPs who won't sit, which effectively lowers the target by a few.

I wonder if they’ll sit if the mate gets in...

 

[Weststander]

YouGov is run by a former Conservative candidate and has always favoured and has always reflected their political leaning. MRP has been elevated to a mythical status because it called a hung parliament in 2017, even though it's actual seat predictions between parties was well off. Seems they're being given much of the emphasis as the leading pollster in this race, but even Cummings has been writing how he fears predicting a Tory majority might actually cost them today.

Tonight's going to reveal all then. Either:

a) Labour (with the SNP's help in the Commons) are swept to power. The polling companies are proved to be either Alt-Right liars, or are simply incompetent, the betting markets completely wrong; or

b) There's life in pollsters yet, with the Tories winning greater or equal than 326 seats.

 

[Weststander]

Gove is the most punchable bloke on the planet. If he had “smug” tattooed on he forehead it would actually make him less punchable.


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Nah. Ian Duncan Smith.

 

[larus]

What? This is the worst government I can remember us having, and you think they're going to win again? Yeah, good one crodo, good one.

Do you mean government or current set of MPs?

We’ve only had this ‘government’ since Boris was elected Tory leader, and he has a minority in the HoC, so he can’t exactly get what he wants done, so is bound to look weak.

I still remember (sadly) that incompetent John Major (the one who prorogued parliament to stop the publication of the cash for questions report and then takes umbrage over Boris for doing the same to call for a queens speech) . Or that pathetic **** Brown as PM, or Teresa May and her ‘Strong and Stable’. So I think I can remember many worse than Boris.

 

[Bold Seagull]

Tonight's going to reveal all then. Either:

a) Labour (with the SNP's help in the Commons) are swept to power. The polling companies are proved to be either Alt-Right liars, or are simply incompetent, the betting markets completely wrong; or

b) There's life in pollsters yet, with the Tories winning greater or equal than 326 seats.

Pollsters are predictors of the future, bit harsh to say they're lying about a result they cannot know. Polling is no doubt a dark art that can create influence before an election; some will get it right through very accurate processes, others will get it right just like a stopped clock is right twice a day, others will be very wrong. I completely agree, voters may prove some of the pollsters completely accurate. We'll have to wait and see.

 

[Blue Valkyrie]

Nah. Ian Duncan Smith.

*Please boot him out*
*Please boot him out*
*Please boot him out*
*Please boot him out*
*Please boot him out*


The falls of IDS and Raab could be high points of an otherwise predictable night.

 

[Perkino]

I think they will miss out on a majority and have to try and form another hung parliment. This time I hope they don't succeed and the 3 main parties are forced to change their leaders as all are a bit shit

 

[Weststander]

Pollsters are predictors of the future, bit harsh to say they're lying about a result they cannot know. Polling is no doubt a dark art that can create influence before an election; some will get it right through very accurate processes, others will get it right just like a stopped clock is right twice a day, others will be very wrong. I completely agree, voters may prove some of the pollsters completely accurate. We'll have to wait and see.

As in 2015 and 2017, I will find it an interesting side issue to see which polling company (in their respective final polls), was closest to the actual result.

 

[Triggaaar]

Do you mean government or current set of MPs?

Government.

We’ve only had this ‘government’ since Boris was elected Tory leader, and he has a minority in the HoC, so he can’t exactly get what he wants done, so is bound to look weak.

It's not their weakness I object to, it's their policies.

I still remember (sadly) that incompetent John Major (the one who prorogued parliament to stop the publication of the cash for questions report and then takes umbrage over Boris for doing the same to call for a queens speech) . Or that pathetic **** Brown as PM, or Teresa May and her ‘Strong and Stable’. So I think I can remember many worse than Boris.

I remember all those too. I think Boris is worse.

 

[Frankie]

Laughable to see the Tories believing that this election is a foregon conclusion.

 

[maltaseagull]

The bookies Smarkets have it at 52. Halving that for over confidence by punters, I’ve gone for 26.

But wouldn’t be shocked by a hung Commons.

I agree that they are a waste of space but hanging is a bit OTT!

 

[larus]

Government.

It's not their weakness I object to, it's their policies.

I remember all those too. I think Boris is worse.

Well, he’s hardly had time to do anything other than trying to get his withdrawal agreement though. Which he did, but the pulled as the subsequent readings would have been ambushed by the remainer biased HoC.

Oh, and everyone said there’s no way that the WA could be re-opened. It was.
Then there was no way he could renegotiate in time. He did,
Then there was no way he could get a vote through in the HoC. Oh wait. He did.

We’re all entitled to opinions (and I happen to respect yours in general), but I think Boris is much maligned and, IMO, there are many worse options than him in the past or currently..

 

[pb21]

Laughable to see the Tories believing that this election is a foregon conclusion.

It is, well at least its very likely the Tory's will get a working majority.

 

[amexer]

Having to deal with trying to make inroads into UKs massive debt and then Brexit on top any government was in a no win situation over last 5 years. I cant understand that with Tories having to deal with these that this wasnt an opportunity for Labour to do what Blair did and get a big majority.
The result may still surprise us but if Labour dont get in what a missed opportunity. Will it just be the Corbyn factor that stops people voting Labour

 

[pb21]

Oh, and everyone said there’s no way that the WA could be re-opened. It was.
Then there was no way he could renegotiate in time. He did,

That was on the basis that we wouldn't shaft NI, one of our red lines. The WA was closed because there was no way out of the backstop unless we changed our red lines. Which we said we wouldn't do.

As soon as we removed a red line, a different WA was clearly possible.

 

[Bodian]

Oh, and everyone said there’s no way that the WA could be re-opened. It was.

It was only re-opened because Johnson reneged on his firm promise that No Conservative Government would ever accept a border in the Irish Sea. And it wasn't really 're-opened', it just reverted to what May had been offered and rejected earlier.