[Politics] How long can Johnson survive as PM?

[nicko31]

Think its fair to say 148 votes against was more than the PM was expecting yesterday

How long will he last? Or will it all blow over like so many times before?

 

[Kinky Gerbil]

I wouldn’t be shocked if he’s re-elected In 24

 

[zefarelly]

I keep saying it, he'll never resign, he'll possibly be forced out.

However with such a large majority and hundreds of otherwise unemployable persons masquerading as MP's he'll garner enough support to cling on as long as he wants. . . the fence post tortoise may well still be stuck up there for the next election unless someone can summons a credible opposition leader.

 

[Kinky Gerbil]

I keep saying it, he'll never resign, he'll possibly be forced out.

However with such a large majority and hundreds of otherwise unemployable persons masquerading as MP's he'll garner enough support to cling on as long as he wants. . . the fence post tortoise may well still be stuck up there for the next election unless someone can summons a credible opposition leader.

So far Hunt is the only one to really put his hat in to challenge and he would be awful as well.

 

[zefarelly]

the thing about the cabinet is theyre all psycopathic back stabbibg shysters with little discernible talent combined, so there is little danger of improvement . . .which is probably why Johnson is still there, he has skin thick enough to keep ordering wallpaper and pouring drinks and **** the rest of us.

It's not only astounding the tories are so bad and in charge, but the opposition parties are so poor as well. . anyone half decent would have Boris hung drawn and quartered by now.

 

[Kalimantan Gull]

I also wouldn't be shocked. There are a lot of people who may dislike the Tories on the whole but are personally extremely loyal to him for delivering Brexit. Add that to the lifelong Tories who hate him but couldn't vote for anyone else and it's possibly enough for a win, albeit with a very low vote share.

One consideration is that conditions don't seem quite right to get the kind of tactical voting on the left we saw pre coalition. Take my county of Cornwall as an example. In 2015 the Tories got 43% of the vote county wide and won 6 out of 6 seats. As recently as 2005 the Libdems swept all five seats with 44% county wide. After the coalition the Libdem vote collapsed to its worst share since 1970 and a lot of their votes went to Labour. They each got 20-25% of the vote in the past three elections with the greens taking some significant votes as well. I don't think Labour can win here, outside of the Truro and Falmouth seat, but as they're in second place in most constituencies they are the most obvious choice for a 'tactical' vote on the surface, where really its the Libdems who have the most chance of winning long term. It'll take a few more elections to get back to that point though. I imagine that's repeated in a lot of places nationwide, the coalition really damaged the progressive alliance on the left that's needed to beat the Tories under our current system.

 

[Thunder Bolt]

Think its fair to say 148 votes against was more than the PM was expecting yesterday

How long will he last? Or will it all blow over like so many times before?

The No Confidence vote was worse than Theresa May's in 2018 and she was gone within 7 months. Apparently the 1922 committee can allow another vote within 12 months but don't usually.

 

[nicko31]

I wouldn’t be shocked if he’s re-elected In 24

If that does happen I think it will be the end of the Union.

I can see him being ousted around conference time and the Tories putting in someone like Penny Mordaunt and claiming it was another new beginning. And the public could well fall for this....

 

[Thunder Bolt]

I also wouldn't be shocked. There are a lot of people who may dislike the Tories on the whole but are personally extremely loyal to him for delivering Brexit. Add that to the lifelong Tories who hate him but couldn't vote for anyone else and it's possibly enough for a win, albeit with a very low vote share.

One consideration is that conditions don't seem quite right to get the kind of tactical voting on the left we saw pre coalition. Take my county of Cornwall as an example. In 2015 the Tories got 43% of the vote county wide and won 6 out of 6 seats. As recently as 2005 the Libdems swept all five seats with 44% county wide. After the coalition the Libdem vote collapsed to its worst share since 1970 and a lot of their votes went to Labour. They each got 20-25% of the vote in the past three elections with the greens taking some significant votes as well. I don't think Labour can win here, outside of the Truro and Falmouth seat, but as they're in second place in most constituencies they are the most obvious choice for a 'tactical' vote on the surface, where really its the Libdems who have the most chance of winning long term. It'll take a few more elections to get back to that point though. I imagine that's repeated in a lot of places nationwide, the coalition really damaged the progressive alliance on the left that's needed to beat the Tories under our current system.

Cornwall believed the lie that the government would continue to give them the regional funds they received from the EU £100 million, and it turns out they are only getting approx £3 million. There may well be a backlash.
https://www.falmouthpacket.co.uk/news/19571108.cornwall-get-just-3m-replacement-funding-leaving-eu/

 

[CheeseRolls]

6 months, change to the rules and a second vote of no confidence. If this had been an organised rebellion, the vote would not have happened before the by elections. Someone is going to want to step up and have a go and next time, I think he will be finished.

 

[nicko31]

The No Confidence vote was worse than Theresa May's in 2018 and she was gone within 7 months. Apparently the 1922 committee can allow another vote within 12 months but don't usually.

If they really want him gone they will find a way, rules can be changed

It did look like the red wall was holding a few weeks ago for Johnson, but things may be shifting there too

 

[Gwylan]

So far Hunt is the only one to really put his hat in to challenge and he would be awful as well.

Tom Tugendhat has. I think he's the only one at the moment, I don't recall Hunt saying explicitly that he wants to be leader (although clearly he does)

 

[MJsGhost]

He'll 'choose' to go only when told by those who keep the trough topped that he can't dip his snout in it anymore unless he goes.

They will tell him to go when it's looking like he'll lose them the GE if he stays, but there's a chance someone else could turn it around. If it's 50:50 whether or not it makes a difference, they'll stick with Boris as he'll be even more in hock to them and their interests.

I'd say it will all come to a head after the conference season - he'll limp on (though full of bluster as per) as a lame duck for a while yet, spouting off about getting the job done, with a tremendous mandate to lead through his terrific, clear victory in the vote of no confidence.

It will be a very long road back for the Tories if he leads them into the next GE - the country has had enough

 

[Deportivo Seagull]

He’s hamstrung … it’s going to be long a tortuous affair for Boris … and I for one am going to thoroughly enjoy his slow demise.

The by-elections are going to be crucial. If the showing is bad as predicted then his pain will only get worse …. I’m easily pleased.


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[Kalimantan Gull]

Cornwall believed the lie that the government would continue to give them the regional funds they received from the EU £100 million, and it turns out they are only getting approx £3 million. There may well be a backlash.
https://www.falmouthpacket.co.uk/news/19571108.cornwall-get-just-3m-replacement-funding-leaving-eu/

Quite. But again, if getting the Tories out is the overriding concern, how do you choose who to vote for if Labour got 25% last time and the Libdems 20%? It was easier in 1997 when the Libs were a hair behind and Labour nowhere.

 

[SAC]

He's not a credible PM but seems to be the only Tory that the public would vote for. He will stumble along until the next election.

It's a shame that Ruth Davidson went to the Lords, she seemed a decent sort. The rest, that I have heard of, seem awful.

 

[Thunder Bolt]

Quite. But again, if getting the Tories out is the overriding concern, how do you choose who to vote for if Labour got 25% last time and the Libdems 20%? It was easier in 1997 when the Libs were a hair behind and Labour nowhere.

Look back over the last three elections and choose the best candidate to defeat the Tory. Hopefully some of the fringe parties will step back.

 

[Shooting Star]

Let me get this straight. Conservative MPs resist calls for a second referendum on Brexit, criticise Boris for trying to change the ministerial code, but would happily change the vote of no confidence rules to force another vote sooner than 12 months, to get their own way? And people think yesterday was all about public interest...

 

[Thunder Bolt]

He'll 'choose' to go only when told by those who keep the trough topped that he can't dip his snout in it anymore unless he goes.

They will tell him to go when it's looking like he'll lose them the GE if he stays, but there's a chance someone else could turn it around. If it's 50:50 whether or not it makes a difference, they'll stick with Boris as he'll be even more in hock to them and their interests.

I'd say it will all come to a head after the conference season - he'll limp on (though full of bluster as per) as a lame duck for a while yet, spouting off about getting the job done, with a tremendous mandate to lead through his terrific, clear victory in the vote of no confidence.

It will be a very long road back for the Tories if he leads them into the next GE - the country has had enough

Exactly. He's having to buy his support, or, at least, promise to provide funds, but who believes his promises?

[tweet]1534095295197356033[/tweet]

 

[jakarta]

He wont resign, will have to be prised out.

Ben Wallace for me, Defence Secretary and straight talking ex Scots Guards officer.