[Politics] How long can Johnson survive as PM?

[Harry Wilson's tackle]

Indeed Starmer never mentions the B-word. But he should because "B....isn't working". We do need a more sensible relationship, our trade is being destroyed along with our tax base.

No tax base and we can waive goodbye to functioning public services and all the nice things like decent health and social care

I don't see there is any point Starmer saying any more than he has. Every time he mentions it Johnson would say "if Captain Hindsight had been in charge we'd have had no vaccine rollout because he would have followed the dithering EU". This is a gross exaggeration but it has sufficient an element of truth to it to make it a plausible criticism of Starmer.

At present labour need to do whatever is needed to make it more likely they will win the next GE. A lot of that involves saying little. Till the election. Resurrecting old battles that Corbyn lost, like Brexit, would be ludicrous.

 

[Tom Hark Preston Park]

 

[clapham_gull]

Can't really compare with Thatcher in terms of the vote because that was a direct leadership election and the rules have long changed since then.

Although she won the first vote, she didn't by a clear enough margin. So a second ballot took place.

She was advised to stand down by her cabinet to stop Heseltine winning, because that would have replaced one leader with another who split the party.

The MPs (collectively) didn't want either.

Enter John Major, a bag of peas and another leader who split the party in two eventually on the subject of Europe.

The Conservatives will never be able to move on from Europe. They've now stuck themselves in a separate corner, over access to he EU market outside of it.

Unfortunately to many of them it is an ideological issues rather than a practical one.

Reminds of Labour and Clause IV.

 

[Pavilionaire]

I think we'll get plenty of bluster and bravado until the by-elections, then the public will punish the Tories for not getting rid of Johnson and the tone will change. Johnson will think if he can get through until the 21 July summer recess then things might blow over and he'll be able to rally the troops come conference season.

However, I think the scheming, plotting and succession will start in earnest after the by-elections and through the summer, so that by conference season there will be one or two alternative candidates emerging.

October will bring further energy price increases and double digit inflation, it will be a world of shit, I can see one or two key resignations and Boris might be made to realise by the men in suits that it is just not happening. Maybe Michael Gove will wield the knife for a second time? I could see Rishi rehabilitating himself with energy grant handouts for all and be the main candidate from within Either way, I think he'll be removed in the Autumn.

 

[Thunder Bolt]

Can't really compare with Thatcher in terms of the vote because that was a direct leadership election and the rules have long changed since then.

Although she won the first vote, she didn't by a clear enough margin. So a second ballot took place.

She was advised to stand down by her cabinet to stop Heseltine winning, because that would have replaced one leader with another who split the party.

The MPs (collectively) didn't want either.

Enter John Major, a bag of peas and another leader who split the party in two eventually on the subject of Europe.

The Conservatives will never be able to move on from Europe. They've now stuck themselves in a separate corner, over access to he EU market outside of it.

Unfortunately to many of them it is an ideological issues rather than a practical one.

Reminds of Labour and Clause IV.

As Nadine Dorries blurted out yesterday, the Tory donors are dictating what is going on, so effectively we are being run by 18-23 billionaires.

 

[Guinness Boy]

Indeed Starmer never mentions the B-word. But he should because "B....isn't working". We do need a more sensible relationship, our trade is being destroyed along with our tax base.

No tax base and we can waive goodbye to functioning public services and all the nice things like decent health and social care

Unfortunately staunch Leavers are so entrenched in their vote as some kind of **** you to the middle ground that Starmer pointing out how bad they've made things will just make it worse, because those are the actual voters Labour needs to win back.

He needs to mention Brexit as little as possible but instead talk about other things that might affect the working classes that he can pin on Johnson. For example "this guy was partying while you couldn't see your friends / say goodbye to a dying relative". Or "this guy has presided over a cost of living crisis that means you can't eat / heat your house / fill your car". Or "he promised levelling up, but has your life improved?" (because I guarantee it won't have).

And then come out with some actual positive policies in their language that might shift this around.

The second he mentions Brexit he's ****ed. Educated centerists already know what a colossal screw up it's been and will vote Starmer anyway.

 

[Yoda]

I can see him, bodging and waffling, blagging & lying his way through the rest of his term, when the public will turn on him and finally oust him from No. 10.

 

[Deleted member 2719]

Think its fair to say 148 votes against was more than the PM was expecting yesterday

How long will he last? Or will it all blow over like so many times before?

If I was you I would go and have a cuppa Earl Grey and and a nice short bread.

Nothing to see, you guys can keep hating, but it's very destructive.

Just wait for the next GE.

 

[Hamilton]

I don't think he'll 'turn it around', but he'll survive.

And sadly, a combination of the turkeys continuing to vote for Christmas and the beige Labour leadership will see the Tory's win another GE.

I very much hope I'm wrong.

 

[nicko31]

If I was you I would go and have a cuppa Earl Grey and and a nice short bread.

Nothing to see, you guys can keep hating, but it's very destructive.

Just wait for the next GE.

Do you think NSC hates him as much as 75% of Tory backbenchers?

 

[Gwylan]

I think we'll get plenty of bluster and bravado until the by-elections, then the public will punish the Tories for not getting rid of Johnson and the tone will change. Johnson will think if he can get through until the 21 July summer recess then things might blow over and he'll be able to rally the troops come conference season.

However, I think the scheming, plotting and succession will start in earnest after the by-elections and through the summer, so that by conference season there will be one or two alternative candidates emerging.

October will bring further energy price increases and double digit inflation, it will be a world of shit, I can see one or two key resignations and Boris might be made to realise by the men in suits that it is just not happening. Maybe Michael Gove will wield the knife for a second time? I could see Rishi rehabilitating himself with energy grant handouts for all and be the main candidate from within Either way, I think he'll be removed in the Autumn.

I agree with this: he's bought himself some time but the summer will see plenty of plotting within the backbench ranks. Autumn will bring trouble: a new cap on energy bills (almost certainly higher prices), a likely double digit inflation rate; tales of woe from travellers caught in holiday chaos and the Commons privilege committee report, which may well find he misled the house.

The big problem that Johnson faces is that the Tory rebels are from different wings: there's the One Nation group who want to see more public spending to help the poor and the hardliners who want big cuts in expenditure. And that's before the Brexit/Remain split is taken into account. Johnson can't appease all sides. I think he'll be toast by Christmas

 

[nicko31]

So 85% on here think he's basically done, I hope they're right....