How do you think Boris has handled it so far ?

[Albion Dan]

Utter rubbish. AD made a statement that Sweden's economy will be in better shape but provided no evidence to back that up other than a link to a website where someone has written their opinion, again, not backed up by evidence. He also keeps banging on about the death rate in a recession but again hasn't backed it up. The guy is a nutter and posts rubbish all day long and it's getting boring.

Posts rubbish or you just cant conceive an angle to the debate that doesn't comply with your programming? I've posted lots of content to support the things I have argued.

Asking for evidence on whether Swedens economy will fare better will be understood in due course but surely its common sense to predict if your shops and businesses are all open and selling it is going to do better than a countries in which the same shops are all shut and the government is having to prop up job losses to the tune of 80%? Do you really need me to give evidence to support that claim? Scary.

Here is a link that links increase in death to austerity resulting from the last crash. The recession that will come if lockdown continues will blow that recession out the water.

https://www.google.co.uk/amp/s/amp....austerity-behind-130000-deaths-uk-ippr-report

Regardless despite what you think the government are going to reduce measures in May and I suspect will be quite aggressive in getting things up and running again pretty soon after. So they are clearly more in tune with my thinking than yours.

And lastly calling me a nutter because my beliefs on situation differ from yours? Nice one and pretty sure that doesn’t comply with the ‘be nice’ rules. Mods?

 

[Theatre of Trees]

Sweden has a far smaller population density than we do.

Sweden = 23 people per km (pop = 10m)
US = 34 per km (pop = 329m)
UK = 274 people per km - of which in England there are 429 per km (pop = 66m)

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_and_dependencies_by_population_density

 

[Kinky Gerbil]

Pretty sure there is - plenty of countries have produced results on testing undertaken, such as the recent New York numbers >>> https://www.syracuse.com/coronaviru...ibly-infected-with-coronavirus-statewide.html

I think the key difference is testing that is undertaken by trained medical staff, likely with laboratory assessment of samples and simple kits that the public can buy and use at home. It's the latter where we still seem to be waiting for reliable tests to be developed/available.

Do you think there will be public meltdown if it turns out the fatality rate is that low?

.5 death rate - 26 million Americans out of work...

 

[RossyG]

Sweden has a far smaller population density than we do.

Sweden = 23 people per km (pop = 10m)
US = 34 per km (pop = 329m)
UK = 274 people per km - of which in England there are 429 per km (pop = 66m)

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_and_dependencies_by_population_density

85% of Swedes live on 15% of the land, though; they’re not evenly spread. The urban density of Stockholm is similar to London’s.

 

[pb21]

Pretty sure there is - plenty of countries have produced results on testing undertaken, such as the recent New York numbers >>> https://www.syracuse.com/coronaviru...ibly-infected-with-coronavirus-statewide.html

That's an interesting article and I think the first data I have seen like this from an authority/government.

IMO an IFR of 0.5% is still very high considering no-one is (or was) immune.

If right that would suggest ~4 million people in the UK have had the virus, or 6%. That's only ~1/10 of that required for herd immunity to be effective.

 

[pb21]

Do you think there will be public meltdown if it turns out the fatality rate is that low?

.5 death rate - 26 million Americans out of work...

The US population is ~330 million. Therefore this would result in potentially 1.3 million dead in relatively short shrift, potentially more once the healthcare system fails.

I fully get the lives vs livelihoods debate, how do you decide though?

Edit: and it's not just deaths now, we still don't know what other implications there are (latest reports on child health) or if you are immune long term post infection. And then the massive negative impacts of continuing this course of action.

 

[Theatre of Trees]

85% of Swedes live on 15% of the land, though; they’re not evenly spread. The urban density of Stockholm is similar to London’s.

No it isn't - Stockholm = 365 per km

https://www.statista.com/statistics/526617/sweden-population-density-by-county/

London = 4542 per km

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/London

Bit of a difference

 

[Albion Dan]

A big question I have is if the WHO are saying those people who have had the disease may not have immunity how the hell is a vaccine EVER going to work? A vaccine is essentially a weaker version of the disease injected into someone so they can build up immunity. If the WHO are correct that means it’s unlikely we will ever have a vaccine that is going to be the solution. Anyone?

 

[Bozza]

A big question I have is if the WHO are saying those people who have had the disease may not have immunity how the hell is a vaccine EVER going to work? A vaccine is essentially a weaker version of the disease injected into someone so they can build up immunity. If the WHO are correct that means it’s unlikely we will ever have a vaccine that is going to be the solution. Anyone?

They’re not saying that though.

They are saying there is no evidence YET.

Two completely different things.

 

[Bozza]

Do you think there will be public meltdown if it turns out the fatality rate is that low?

.5 death rate - 26 million Americans out of work...

There shouldn’t be, no.

If the virus has been allowed to run freely through any given population then the results would be horrific even with “a really low fatality rate”. A lot of people would have died, horribly and needlessly.

We don’t treat people like that.

 

[Albion Dan]

They’re not saying that though.

They are saying there is no evidence YET.

Two completely different things.

So if it does happen to be the case a vaccine unlikely to ever work?

 

[CheeseRolls]

Even now? Really? The articles I've seen suggest the Nightingale hospitals have staff but nowhere near getting any patients as the beds aren't needed. Still plenty in normal hospitals, which incidentally away from Covid and ICU are like ghost towns as people who need help are having life expectancy reduced and worst as they are unable to get the treatment of have the operations they need.

Yes even now. Basically I don't share your scepticism on self isolation. My view is that infection rates have dropped due to isolation and that to reverse out of this, without a full set of controls, will just send the infection numbers, hospitalisations and deaths right back up and I don't think the Nightingale hospitals on there own going to get anywhere near addressing that gap.

I have read through a huge amount of stuff from a very wide range of sources. I am not surprised that the arguments are getting quite heated, there are so many experts trying really hard to find answers, but so much of what is presented is contradictory and often easy to misinterpret. I think you raise some important points about the knock on effects of our isolation policy. On balance though I am sitting on the side of it is too early to start rolling back, but am looking forward to joining team AD.

 

[Green Cross Code Man]

A big question I have is if the WHO are saying those people who have had the disease may not have immunity how the hell is a vaccine EVER going to work? A vaccine is essentially a weaker version of the disease injected into someone so they can build up immunity. If the WHO are correct that means it’s unlikely we will ever have a vaccine that is going to be the solution. Anyone?

The woman who is heading up the Oxford team testing out a vaccine at the moment said that the vaccine should be better than the natural antibodies the virus produces. A quick search confirms that some vaccines do in fact work better than antibodies. I remember she said that a vaccine is likely to be efficacious for a longer period than if one had built immunity from infection.

 

[Raleigh Chopper]

After watching Panorama I would say not very well and that is being polite.

 

[Jim D]

After watching Panorama I would say not very well and that is being polite.

A couple of days ago, on a different thread, people were accusing the BBC of cosying up to the government and coming up with 'good' stories to make sure their licence fee was protected. After that I don't think so - unless Panorama have gone rogue.

 

[The Merry Prankster]

Deaths per million of population
Germany 72
Denmark 74
Portugal 91
Norway 38 etc, etc

UK 308*

Just seen these stats in a tweet. Are they accurate? Because if they are then I’d say we were t doing very well, to put it mildly.

 

[The Merry Prankster]

Update -

Deaths/1,000,000
Nor 36.3
Fin 34.4
Den 72.1
Swe 215.5
UK 311.8 (Hopsitals) 646.7 (Overall estimate of 43,000 deaths)
USA 167.7
Bel 621.1
Fra 341.2
Ita 440.9
Spa 497.5
Ger 69.3
Port 87.8

 

[Albion Dan]

Update -

Deaths/1,000,000
Nor 36.3
Fin 34.4
Den 72.1
Swe 215.5
UK 311.8 (Hopsitals) 646.7 (Overall estimate of 43,000 deaths)
USA 167.7
Bel 621.1
Fra 341.2
Ita 440.9
Spa 497.5
Ger 69.3
Port 87.8

I don’t think you can use those comparison stats. Germany are only counting those that died of covid, UK count anyone who died of anything whilst they had it. Also I believe lots of those other countries are also only counting hospital death so unfair to only include that against UK stats.

 

[Guinness Boy]

I don’t think you can use those comparison stats. Germany are only counting those that died of covid, UK count anyone who died of anything whilst they had it. Also I believe lots of those other countries are also only counting hospital death so unfair to only include that against UK stats.

Plenty of stories doing the rounds on social media of death certificates showing Covid as the cause when families are convinced it wasn't as well. Nice and easy. No autopsy and a simple process for disposing of the body when there are, sadly, so many to dispose of. Yes, it's social media but I imagine the temptation to go for the easy story is overwhelming given short staffedness etc. Equally, on the other side, plenty of Covid deaths in care homes and at home won't have gone down like that.

Just like the total number of cases it is impossible to state.

However, if you want to look at the "Number of Deaths" thread then there are stats on there showing the ratio between cases and deaths is very consistent and doesn't show us to have done a particularly good comparative job. That ratio is also in line with other badly affected European countries. You can say total death are over or under reported and the same for cases but when you divide one by the other and consistently get a number around about 8 it paints a clear pattern.

 

[Raleigh Chopper]

A couple of days ago, on a different thread, people were accusing the BBC of cosying up to the government and coming up with 'good' stories to make sure their licence fee was protected. After that I don't think so - unless Panorama have gone rogue.

If it was accurate, and I have no reason to believe it wasn't considering the people they were talking to, it was very damning, if it's followed up by questions being asked to politicians it will be interesting to see how they answer.
Yet again it seems the NHS has been let down very badly.