Yes, it was Vallance, who is an expert at the heart of government, advising them on the science who, as you seem to be indicating, is highly controversial (which might lead us to question what he's doing there). Beyond the WHO who have been advocating stringent physical distancing/isolation measures and "test, test, test", I've been most persuaded by the regular interventions by Anthony Costello (who also used to work at WHO) and, although I've only just come across it, this article seems as persuasive as I've come across, and was written just before Neil Ferguson's pronounced do-nothing/herd-immunity curves prompted the government to swing into action:
https://www.theguardian.com/comment...st-britain-herd-immunity-coronavirus-covid-19
If you work in (or close to) the field, please post any decent analyses.
Cheers! I work with a modeller (who legged it with his family several weeks ago, as he is vulnerable). If I get anything useful I will of course post it.
Vallance is, like another mate of mine, a 'high achiever' who people become addicted to, regardless of the value of their contribution, owing to their charisma and chutzpah. Fortunately he won't do much harm as he's not calling the shots, and wouldn't want to.
OK just scanned through that link you posted and I agree with it. But it is really a criticism of the missplaced 'herd immunity' claim, in line with my comments above, and showing that Vallance was talking outside his sphere of expertise......
All that said (and I am a labour voting Boris hater) I still think that what the Boris team have done is largely on point. They need to deal with the ventilators, and some other stuff, but it could be a great deal worse. I have to say that I think that total lockdown a la China is wrong and we will see it come back and bite China in the bum later, as the Grauniad article alludes.
Right, time I asked my modeller pal what he things about things now. Will report back....