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[Football] Going to the Game Saturday or Staying away because of Corona Virus?

Will you stay away Saturday

  • I will be there

    Votes: 307 83.9%
  • Staying Away

    Votes: 59 16.1%

  • Total voters
    366
  • Poll closed .


Mellotron

I've asked for soup
Jul 2, 2008
32,462
Brighton
As I have Mellotron on ignore, would you just ask him politely if he needs any help with Maths. I tutor a basic Maths course part time.

The thing that terrifies me most is that [MENTION=8625]Nobby[/MENTION] is a maths tutor and thinks 500 and 373 are the same number.

:lol:
 




Mellotron

I've asked for soup
Jul 2, 2008
32,462
Brighton
What I'm saying is I have no reason to believe that we will buck the trend of number of cases doubling approximately every six days, and that this will very soon lead to a very large number of infected people that causes the NHS to be overwhelmed.

Understood. However, that isn’t “exponential” growth. That is very likely “bell curve” growth.
 






Blue3

Well-known member
Jan 27, 2014
5,829
Lancing
Exponential growth means a growing percentage of new cases in comparison to the total number of cases. Please show your working out that we are experiencing this in the UK.

I suspect you confusing linear and exponential growth Linear model a constant rate of change while Exponential model at consequitive intervals.

It is likley we are currently in an exponential phase of this Virus spread which it is likley to evolve into a Logarithmic curve.

I note in another post you postulate that a bell curve is a better fit while I can see your point this virus is unlikely to follow a clear path on a day to day basis therefore a bell curve would be useful as a after event graph but less so during
 
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Bozza

You can change this
Helpful Moderator
Jul 4, 2003
57,230
Back in Sussex
Understood. However, that isn’t “exponential” growth. That is very likely “bell curve” growth.

Every epidermologist I read, people who have worked in this field for their entire careers, is continuing to describe this growth as exponential. I'm not going to argue with them for any longer than I'm going to argue with you.
 




Mellotron

I've asked for soup
Jul 2, 2008
32,462
Brighton
Every epidermologist I read, people who have worked in this field for their entire careers, is continuing to describe this growth as exponential. I'm not going to argue with them for any longer than I'm going to argue with you.

OK. And I’ve also read from virologists and epidermologists who are confirming it looks very likely to follow a bell curve growth. We are basically reading the same info, you’re just choosing to focus on the more negative, unhelpful aspects and amplifying then, whilst I am doing the opposite.
 




Mellotron

I've asked for soup
Jul 2, 2008
32,462
Brighton
I suspect you confusing linear and exponential growth Linear model a constant rate of change while Exponential model at consequitive intervals.

You are correct. I knew it was one of the two.
 


Mellotron

I've asked for soup
Jul 2, 2008
32,462
Brighton
I think most of us can agree that the “alright jacks, it’s only flu” types are idiots. As are those who needlessly focus on worst case scenarios and present them as if fact.

We absolutely should be taking this virus seriously, taking necessary precautions, but not overdramatising nor needlessly dreaming up future scenarios that help no one and scare the anxious.

I hope we can all find that middle ground.

Gonna leave the thread now as some are clearly not enjoying my input. 0/10 flounce. Xx
 


Bozza

You can change this
Helpful Moderator
Jul 4, 2003
57,230
Back in Sussex
OK. And I’ve also read from virologists and epidermologists who are confirming it looks very likely to follow a bell curve growth. We are basically reading the same info, you’re just choosing to focus on the more negative, unhelpful aspects and amplifying then, whilst I am doing the opposite.

Right, now we're getting somewhere.

Of course it's a bell curve.

A virus can't keep exponentially growing because it will run out of people to infect. At some point the rate of growth will reverse - that's the top of your bell.

However, I'm not sure how you can take comfort from this being a bell curve given what the journey of climbing that bell could be like, and, indeed, a fair bit of the journey down the other side - https://www.statnews.com/2020/03/11/flattening-curve-coronavirus/
 






GooGull

New member
Aug 14, 2016
667
Is there any figures out there for the number of people who have recovered. There’s lots about the numbers that have been infected and those that have died but nothing about the number who are currently affected which will be much lower?
 


Bozza

You can change this
Helpful Moderator
Jul 4, 2003
57,230
Back in Sussex
Is there any figures out there for the number of people who have recovered. There’s lots about the numbers that have been infected and those that have died but nothing about the number who are currently affected which will be much lower?

John Hopkins seems to the most widely-acknowledged first port of call: https://www.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6

Worldometers has a plethora of stats you can drill through: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/
 




Dick Head

⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐
Jan 3, 2010
13,882
Quaxxann
Why has that not been RE_DONE with GOOD OL' SUSSEX ?

I tried to do it using the www.washyourlyrics.com website but the database it gets the lyrics from only has pop songs so couldn't find Good Old Sussex By The Sea :(

2586192426947313664.png
 
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Blackadder

Brighton Bhuna Boy
Jul 6, 2003
16,119
Haywards Heath
I plan to go but I have a feeling that it won't go ahead.
 


Barham's tash

Well-known member
Jun 8, 2013
3,723
Rayners Lane
Probably 80-20 against. Arsenal will complain that they haven’t had sufficient preparation coming out of self isolation on Friday.
And there are three days before Friday for a lot more sh*t to happen

Self isolation at their training ground and with no symptoms won’t have hindered their preparation at all.

Unless there’s a wider missive re postponing games across the league I expect this one to go ahead.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
 




Nobby

Well-known member
Sep 29, 2007
2,891
Right, now we're getting somewhere.

Of course it's a bell curve.

A virus can't keep exponentially growing because it will run out of people to infect. At some point the rate of growth will reverse - that's the top of your bell.

However, I'm not sure how you can take comfort from this being a bell curve given what the journey of climbing that bell could be like, and, indeed, a fair bit of the journey down the other side - https://www.statnews.com/2020/03/11/flattening-curve-coronavirus/

Bell something
 


dwayne

Well-known member
Jul 5, 2003
16,252
London
Self isolation at their training ground and with no symptoms won’t have hindered their preparation at all.

Unless there’s a wider missive re postponing games across the league I expect this one to go ahead.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
They won't be training.

Sent from my SM-G977N using Tapatalk
 


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