[Football] Going to the Game Saturday or Staying away because of Corona Virus?

[Mellotron]

As I have Mellotron on ignore, would you just ask him politely if he needs any help with Maths. I tutor a basic Maths course part time.

The thing that terrifies me most is that [MENTION=8625]Nobby[/MENTION] is a maths tutor and thinks 500 and 373 are the same number.

 

[Mellotron]

What I'm saying is I have no reason to believe that we will buck the trend of number of cases doubling approximately every six days, and that this will very soon lead to a very large number of infected people that causes the NHS to be overwhelmed.

Understood. However, that isn’t “exponential” growth. That is very likely “bell curve” growth.

 

[BBassic]

Staying away.

Got a bit of a cold already so a) don't fancy sitting in the cold and b) don't want to run the risk of it becoming something worse.

 

[wardy wonder land]

It should be fine as long as everybody takes the Government's advice if they use the bogs at half time.

View attachment 120868


Why has that not been RE_DONE with GOOD OL' SUSSEX ?

 

[Blue3]

Exponential growth means a growing percentage of new cases in comparison to the total number of cases. Please show your working out that we are experiencing this in the UK.

I suspect you confusing linear and exponential growth Linear model a constant rate of change while Exponential model at consequitive intervals.

It is likley we are currently in an exponential phase of this Virus spread which it is likley to evolve into a Logarithmic curve.

I note in another post you postulate that a bell curve is a better fit while I can see your point this virus is unlikely to follow a clear path on a day to day basis therefore a bell curve would be useful as a after event graph but less so during

 

[Bozza]

Understood. However, that isn’t “exponential” growth. That is very likely “bell curve” growth.

Every epidermologist I read, people who have worked in this field for their entire careers, is continuing to describe this growth as exponential. I'm not going to argue with them for any longer than I'm going to argue with you.

 

[BNthree]

Why has that not been RE_DONE with GOOD OL' SUSSEX ?

I tried to do it using the www.washyourlyrics.com website but the database it gets the lyrics from only has pop songs so couldn't find Good Old Sussex By The Sea

 

[Mellotron]

Every epidermologist I read, people who have worked in this field for their entire careers, is continuing to describe this growth as exponential. I'm not going to argue with them for any longer than I'm going to argue with you.

OK. And I’ve also read from virologists and epidermologists who are confirming it looks very likely to follow a bell curve growth. We are basically reading the same info, you’re just choosing to focus on the more negative, unhelpful aspects and amplifying then, whilst I am doing the opposite.

 

[Mellotron]

I suspect you confusing linear and exponential growth Linear model a constant rate of change while Exponential model at consequitive intervals.

You are correct. I knew it was one of the two.

 

[Mellotron]

I think most of us can agree that the “alright jacks, it’s only flu” types are idiots. As are those who needlessly focus on worst case scenarios and present them as if fact.

We absolutely should be taking this virus seriously, taking necessary precautions, but not overdramatising nor needlessly dreaming up future scenarios that help no one and scare the anxious.

I hope we can all find that middle ground.

Gonna leave the thread now as some are clearly not enjoying my input. 0/10 flounce. Xx

 

[Bozza]

OK. And I’ve also read from virologists and epidermologists who are confirming it looks very likely to follow a bell curve growth. We are basically reading the same info, you’re just choosing to focus on the more negative, unhelpful aspects and amplifying then, whilst I am doing the opposite.

Right, now we're getting somewhere.

Of course it's a bell curve.

A virus can't keep exponentially growing because it will run out of people to infect. At some point the rate of growth will reverse - that's the top of your bell.

However, I'm not sure how you can take comfort from this being a bell curve given what the journey of climbing that bell could be like, and, indeed, a fair bit of the journey down the other side - https://www.statnews.com/2020/03/11/flattening-curve-coronavirus/

 

[Dick Knights Mumm]

I have 2 children with Cystic Fibrosis, if they were to catch covid then they will be done for, it’s the people that are treating this as ‘just flu’ that are causing all the trouble and concern. This is NOT just the flu, and anyone that keeps saying it is should be banned from writing and talking.

Quite.

 

[GooGull]

Is there any figures out there for the number of people who have recovered. There’s lots about the numbers that have been infected and those that have died but nothing about the number who are currently affected which will be much lower?

 

[Bozza]

Is there any figures out there for the number of people who have recovered. There’s lots about the numbers that have been infected and those that have died but nothing about the number who are currently affected which will be much lower?

John Hopkins seems to the most widely-acknowledged first port of call: https://www.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6

Worldometers has a plethora of stats you can drill through: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

 

[Dick Head]

Why has that not been RE_DONE with GOOD OL' SUSSEX ?

I tried to do it using the www.washyourlyrics.com website but the database it gets the lyrics from only has pop songs so couldn't find Good Old Sussex By The Sea

 

[Bakero]

View attachment 120892

Worth sending to the club. They should get a few stuck up at the Amex for the weekend

 

[Blackadder]

I plan to go but I have a feeling that it won't go ahead.

 

[Barham's tash]

Probably 80-20 against. Arsenal will complain that they haven’t had sufficient preparation coming out of self isolation on Friday.
And there are three days before Friday for a lot more sh*t to happen

Self isolation at their training ground and with no symptoms won’t have hindered their preparation at all.

Unless there’s a wider missive re postponing games across the league I expect this one to go ahead.


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[Nobby]

Right, now we're getting somewhere.

Of course it's a bell curve.

A virus can't keep exponentially growing because it will run out of people to infect. At some point the rate of growth will reverse - that's the top of your bell.

However, I'm not sure how you can take comfort from this being a bell curve given what the journey of climbing that bell could be like, and, indeed, a fair bit of the journey down the other side - https://www.statnews.com/2020/03/11/flattening-curve-coronavirus/

Bell something

 

[dwayne]

Self isolation at their training ground and with no symptoms won’t have hindered their preparation at all.

Unless there’s a wider missive re postponing games across the league I expect this one to go ahead.


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They won't be training.

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