[Politics] General Election 2024 - 4th July

[nwgull]

Tim Montgomerie suggested in an interview once the Tories have lost there will be a larger number of Tories demanding Farage on the ballot for the next leader.

He seems to think talks are already taking place.

I'm sure that will get some of their voters back, but will also lose a large number.

If that happens they’ll just become the de-facto Reform party. It’ll just leave millions of centre-right Tories voting elsewhere.

 

[Hugo Rune]

Tim Montgomerie suggested in an interview once the Tories have lost there will be a larger number of Tories demanding Farage on the ballot for the next leader.

He seems to think talks are already taking place.

I'm sure that will get some of their voters back, but will also lose a large number.

Indeed.

Like Corbyn, he is an effective activist, rabble rouser and establishment disrupter but absolutely lacks the ability to lead effectively or govern. I think it’s possible he’d be a worse PM than Johnson and Truss. Even Corbyn can’t claim that!

 

[Hugo Rune]

The Tories will get 151 plus seats. Labour will win but is will be much closer than predicted imo

I’m predicting 30-80 seats.

This is based on the 18-30 vote turning out. Normally, the numbers from this demographic aren’t brilliant but the hate for the Tories on Insta & TikTok (they don’t use FB & Twitter) is profound and astonishing.

The young are going to take their future and obliterate the Tories. There is a huge wave coming but it’s difficult to spot it if you don’t live your life on social media. I predict we will see the biggest turnout of young voters in recent history.

The disastrous Tory election campaign declared war on the young with the national service nonsense. The fact they then declared war on veterans a week later with old Frog Face turning up to take their rightwing populist voters anything over 100 would be a miracle.

Please don’t waste your money.

 

[golddene]

The Tories will get 151 plus seats. Labour will win but is will be much closer than predicted imo

Dream on Tory Boy……..

 

[nwgull]

I’m predicting 30-80 seats.

This is based on the 18-30 vote turning out. Normally, the numbers from this demographic aren’t brilliant but the hate for the Tories on Insta & TikTok (they don’t use FB & Twitter) is profound and astonishing.

The young are going to take their future and obliterate the Tories. There is a huge wave coming but it’s difficult to spot it if you don’t live your life on social media. I predict we will see the biggest turnout of young voters in recent history.

The disastrous Tory election campaign declared war on the young with the national service nonsense. The fact they then declared war on veterans a week later with old Frog Face turning up to take their rightwing populist voters anything over 100 would be a miracle.

Please don’t waste your money.

I'm not sure the 18-30 vote will be that significant. Whilst there may be loads on social media, there'll likley be loads more that are ambivalent and don't post this on social media. Looking at registration stats, there were only about 160K registrations of 'attainers' (those that reach 18) in 2023, and that's out of approx 600K.

I do think the number of Tory seats could be as low as 80 though. I'd probably put my bet in th 90-100 region.

 

[Billy Seagull]

Tory 50-99 seats now 2.64/2.68 fav on Betfair with about £600 available to lay at 2.68. 99 seats or less 1.8/1.81 with 100+ at 2.24/2.26

Spreadex have the number of Tory seats at 111-119.

Tories facing oblivion if these odds are right, and I sincerely hope they are.

 

[Lenny Rider]

I wonder what life in the UK will be like on 4th July 2029?

Will Sir Keir Starmer be lauded as the greatest living PM of the UK?

Or will Angela Rayner make Maggie T look like the Angel Gabriel?

Will the UK be a member of the EU?

Will the illegal channel crossings be a dim and distant memory?

Will Richard Tice and Nigel Farage be leading lights in the rejuvenated Tory party?

Will Fabian be an Albion Legend having led us to an FA Cup win in 2026 then on to Europa League glory in 2027?

Or will Old Vlad Putin and Prince Donald of Orange blown us all up?

Where’s Nostradamus when you need him?

 

[WATFORD zero]

I wonder what life in the UK will be like on 4th July 2029?

Will Sir Keir Starmer be lauded as the greatest living PM of the UK?

Or will Angela Rayner make Maggie T look like the Angel Gabriel?

Will the UK be a member of the EU?

Will the illegal channel crossings be a dim and distant memory?

Will Richard Tice and Nigel Farage be leading lights in the rejuvenated Tory party?

Will Fabian be an Albion Legend having led us to an FA Cup win in 2026 then on to Europa League glory in 2027?

Or will Old Vlad Putin and Prince Donald of Orange blown us all up?

Where’s Nostradamus when you need him?

Will the same old people be posting the same old bollox on NSC ?

Let's hope so

 

[Happy Exile]

Tim Montgomerie suggested in an interview once the Tories have lost there will be a larger number of Tories demanding Farage on the ballot for the next leader.

He seems to think talks are already taking place.

I'm sure that will get some of their voters back, but will also lose a large number.

I know quite a few Tories and I'm confident not a single one of them would vote for a party led by Farage. There's a view among some that Hague was the last "proper" Conservative to lead them and the party has become nothing like what it should stand for. Farage taking over would see the end of the party in all but name and might keep them in the wilderness for a long time.

 

[Lenny Rider]

Will the same old people be posting the same old bollox on NSC ?

Let's hope so

If we haven’t been blown up by then.

I recently spoke to the officer at WBC who is updating the Town Plans in the even of a Nuclear War, I did point out that with Portsmouth Naval Base and Shoreham Port being two potential primary Russian targets, it’s all a bit a academic really

All this election talk took me back to the May 1997, I actually got the internet at home for the very first time on polling day, almost like the invention of fire.

 

[seagullsovergrimsby]

Rishi Sunk could now easily lose his seat with voters tactically voting Labour , plus the fact that 25% of those in his constituency are either serving military or veterans.

 

[WATFORD zero]

If we haven’t been blown up by then.

I recently spoke to the officer at WBC who is updating the Town Plans in the even of a Nuclear War, I did point out that with Portsmouth Naval Base and Shoreham Port being two potential primary Russian targets, it’s all a bit a academic really

All this election talk took me back to the May 1997, I actually got the internet at home for the very first time on polling day, almost like the invention of fire.

Shoreham port ? Are they after our scallops

Why would anyone want to go to all the trouble of firing nuclear weapons (which probably won't work, may well blow up at launch and any that do get away won't land anywhere near their target) whilst keeping underground bunkers to hide from them, when you can close down a whole country's economy with just a couple of spotty pubescents with their phones.

I really don't get it

 

[nwgull]

Shoreham port ? Are they after our scallops

Why would anyone want to go to all the trouble of firing nuclear weapons (which probably won't work, may well blow up at launch and any that do get away won't land anywhere near their target) whilst keeping underground bunkers to hide from them, when you can close down a whole country's economy with just a couple of spotty pubescents with their phones.

I really don't get it

The Russians are way ahead of us in realising this. Who do think has ultimately been funding characters like Farage?

 

[Bold Seagull]

If we haven’t been blown up by then.

I recently spoke to the officer at WBC who is updating the Town Plans in the even of a Nuclear War, I did point out that with Portsmouth Naval Base and Shoreham Port being two potential primary Russian targets, it’s all a bit a academic really

All this election talk took me back to the May 1997, I actually got the internet at home for the very first time on polling day, almost like the invention of fire.

Shoreham Port - are they strategically taking out our local supplies of timber as well as @watford zero’s scallops?

 

[AlbionBro]

She doesn't have to be. You need all types to make a successful cabinet, not just potential leaders. Indeed, in some way having a dedicated loyal team that aren't back-stabbing with an eye on the top job would be quite a good thing.

Yes, but I have always thought her ambitions are to take the top spot, hopefully as you say she will stay loyal. I suppose time will tell.

 

[BLOCK F]

Will the same old people be posting the same old bollox on NSC ?

Let's hope so

You can depend on that!

 

[A1X]

This is the level of detail the Reform voters on this thread clearly value

 

[clapham_gull]

Free to read this weekend, fascinating detail on how Starmer's team completely ran rings round Sunak's on D-Day.

Much more to it than you'd think.

 

[A1X]

Free to read this weekend, fascinating detail on how Starmer's team completely ran rings round Sunak's on D-Day.

Much more to it than you'd think.

The revelation that even the people around the King are furious is very interesting, people talk about “the Westminster bubble” and this lot appear to have got high off that supply, just a total disconnect from the public at large

 

[nwgull]

7 to 1 with bookies

Going large then? Are you f***.