[Politics] General Election 2024 - 4th July

[Lenny Rider]

Getting the feeling the Tories, that matter, probably think this is the election to lose with the incoming shit storm?

 

[Hugo Rune]

Free to read this weekend, fascinating detail on how Starmer's team completely ran rings round Sunak's on D-Day.

Much more to it than you'd think.

Thanks for posting this. It makes the Tory claim that Starmer doesn’t have a plan look pretty silly doesn’t it. I really think this will relegate the Tories to being the third party in Parliament.

 

[Cotton Socks]

I've just come back from a social occasion where pretty much everyone would've voted Conservative at the last GE. I know you shouldn't talk about sex, religion or politics at parties but the conversation of politics came up. They literally have no idea who to vote for, but they don't want Labour. One of them did this weird thing of saying that Labour have become too similar to Conservatives but they would never entertain voting Labour, just because they won't vote for Labour. He said he wished there was a box for 'none of the above'. I did try and say that you can actually write that & your vote will be counted. I can guarantee that he will put a cross in the Conservative box on July 4th if he does go and vote. They're not 'shy' Conservatives, they just seem to be stuck in a no mans land.
Turn out will probably be low, not because people can't be bothered to vote, but those who would normally vote Conservative, don't want to vote Conservative as they've made a complete mess of everything. They just won't vote.

 

[Motogull]

They just won't vote.

I guess it depends how bigoted they are. A few months ago my 'all right jack' parents in law said they were going to vote Reform. Then it was back to Conservative until NF's u-turn. Bro in law will defo vote C.

 

[Simster]

The Tories will get 151 plus seats. Labour will win but is will be much closer than predicted imo

I understand why you say this - history shows that the conservative vote is underestimated and that a lot of shy Tories end up voting for them. But this time will probably be different for a few reasons:

1) for a change, there is a credible threat from the right. Reform didn't exist in times gone by
2) a Labour win is already seen as done and dusted. Many Tory voters will therefore just vote Reform or not bother at all.
3) as has been said, they've declared war on the young (as if their record on helping them isn't bad enough, they've now introduced National Service)
4) the D Day scandal will not sit well with any undecided people

 

[drew]

Sunak's campaign couldn't be going any worse if it had been infiltrated by Alastair Campbell as their campaign manager! Could it be that Sunak is doing a Paqueta and has a large spread bet on the Tories losing??

 

[Ooh it’s a corner]

I've just come back from a social occasion where pretty much everyone would've voted Conservative at the last GE. I know you shouldn't talk about sex, religion or politics at parties but the conversation of politics came up. They literally have no idea who to vote for, but they don't want Labour. One of them did this weird thing of saying that Labour have become too similar to Conservatives but they would never entertain voting Labour, just because they won't vote for Labour. He said he wished there was a box for 'none of the above'. I did try and say that you can actually write that & your vote will be counted. I can guarantee that he will put a cross in the Conservative box on July 4th if he does go and vote. They're not 'shy' Conservatives, they just seem to be stuck in a no mans land.
Turn out will probably be low, not because people can't be bothered to vote, but those who would normally vote Conservative, don't want to vote Conservative as they've made a complete mess of everything. They just won't vote.

Depressing - deffo an argument to be made to say anyone voting Reform needs their head examined and anyone voting Tory needs locking up!

 

[Napper]

Depressing - deffo an argument to be made to say anyone voting Reform needs their head examined and anyone voting Tory needs locking up!

Also could be time to get some new mates

 

[Herr Tubthumper]

Getting the feeling the Tories, that matter, probably think this is the election to lose with the incoming shit storm?

Possibly. But they should surely be looking to minimize their loses? If the polls are to be believed Reform are now making serious inroads into their far-right supporters and they could lose some big names as sitting MPs. It will then be interesting to see how they react to this, carrying on as they are isn’t an option, further right will alienate some of their big names in the press, big business and donors and moving to the centre ground will lose their headbanger supporters to Reform. They’re f***ed regardless.

The very thing which Cameron tried to address, the vocal far right in his party, now looks like the very thing which kept them together as a party with enough support to win an election.

TL: DR The Tories will be f***ed for a few elections at least.

 

[ROSM]

There is a gossip style whatsapp group for peacehaven. Over the last few weeks whenever politics has been mentioned (even when it hasn't) its has been overrun with 'I'm voting reform' etc

Well nominations are in and closed and there is no reform candidate standing in brighton kemptown and peacehaven. May save the tories a few votes then

 

[crodonilson]

Does anyone think Rachel Reeves will play fast and loose with the public's finances?

 

[South Stand Bonfire]

Three things Farage mentioned live on LauraK this morning:

1. He will scrap diversity training in the NHS to save money but literally in the next breath stated that “.. everyone should be treated equally”
2. He will “raise inheritance thresholds to save money”
3. Stating that Sunak leaving the D day events early was unforgivable but again in the next breath when questioned on a co Reform running mate who apparently has been charged or prosecuted for wire fraud, stated that he believes in “ Christian Forgiveness “

He is a good orator but oh my, what a fraud…..in my opinion.

 

[ROSM]

Does anyone think Rachel Reeves will play fast and loose with the public's finances?

I don't think she has ever played fast and loose on or with anyone or anything

 

[beorhthelm]

I've just come back from a social occasion where pretty much everyone would've voted Conservative at the last GE. I know you shouldn't talk about sex, religion or politics at parties but the conversation of politics came up. They literally have no idea who to vote for, but they don't want Labour. One of them did this weird thing of saying that Labour have become too similar to Conservatives but they would never entertain voting Labour, just because they won't vote for Labour. He said he wished there was a box for 'none of the above'. I did try and say that you can actually write that & your vote will be counted. I can guarantee that he will put a cross in the Conservative box on July 4th if he does go and vote. They're not 'shy' Conservatives, they just seem to be stuck in a no mans land.
Turn out will probably be low, not because people can't be bothered to vote, but those who would normally vote Conservative, don't want to vote Conservative as they've made a complete mess of everything. They just won't vote.

i'd call them disappointed Conservatives rather than shy, not really getting what they voted for (for many individual reasons). my pet theory is as we get to the election and it's clear Labour will win, a lot of these will turn out and vote Conservative anyway, safe in the knowledge they wont win.

 

[WATFORD zero]

i'd call them disappointed Conservatives rather than shy, not really getting what they voted for (for many individual reasons). my pet theory is as we get to the election and it's clear Labour will win, a lot of these will turn out and vote Conservative anyway, safe in the knowledge they wont win.

I do wonder what they thought they were voting for when they voted for the most inexperienced cabinet in history, led by Johnson, with a manifesto of 'Get Brexit Done'

 

[A1X]

Getting the feeling the Tories, that matter, probably think this is the election to lose with the incoming shit storm?

I think this ascribes a suggestion of logic and competence to their actions which reality fails to justify

 

[BrianB]

Just checked - we have a reform candidate in Mid Sussex , that should split the right wingers

 

[Cheshire Cat]

Three things Farage mentioned live on LauraK this morning:

1. He will scrap diversity training in the NHS to save money but literally in the next breath stated that “.. everyone should be treated equally”
2. He will “raise inheritance thresholds to save money”
3. Stating that Sunak leaving the D day events early was unforgivable but again in the next breath when questioned on a co Reform running mate who apparently has been charged or prosecuted for wire fraud, stated that he believes in “ Christian Forgiveness “

He is a good orator but oh my, what a fraud…..in my opinion.

My experience with the NHS indicated it needs far more diversity training.

 

[WATFORD zero]

There is a gossip style whatsapp group for peacehaven. Over the last few weeks whenever politics has been mentioned (even when it hasn't) its has been overrun with 'I'm voting reform' etc

Well nominations are in and closed and there is no reform candidate standing in brighton kemptown and peacehaven. May save the tories a few votes then

I've just looked and Reform are putting up candidates in 93% of seats (Lab, Con, Libs all doing 97%). That is an awful lot of money that someone somewhere is writing off supporting Nigel Farage's private company in it's attempt to win a parliamentary seat. After all, Nige always claims to be skint. I wonder

 

[Machiavelli]

I've just come back from a social occasion where pretty much everyone would've voted Conservative at the last GE. I know you shouldn't talk about sex, religion or politics at parties but the conversation of politics came up. They literally have no idea who to vote for, but they don't want Labour. One of them did this weird thing of saying that Labour have become too similar to Conservatives but they would never entertain voting Labour, just because they won't vote for Labour. He said he wished there was a box for 'none of the above'. I did try and say that you can actually write that & your vote will be counted. I can guarantee that he will put a cross in the Conservative box on July 4th if he does go and vote. They're not 'shy' Conservatives, they just seem to be stuck in a no mans land.
Turn out will probably be low, not because people can't be bothered to vote, but those who would normally vote Conservative, don't want to vote Conservative as they've made a complete mess of everything. They just won't vote.

Yes, but Labour crashed the economy. They literally left a note saying there wasn't any money left